North Atlantic Smaller C... Share Discussion Threads

[apple53] 22/6/2023 16:39

miffed
would have halved position if it had squeezed over 40 quid
then bought back or some other bargain

If something else would just go up I would buy here

[p1nkfish] 22/6/2023 15:50

NAS is not a bad place to hide-out so long as we have the right hand on the tiller.

[loglorry1] 22/6/2023 15:08

I guess the drop today is just the 5% BoE decision. I'm not very surprised there wasn't much index effect. People do tend to get a bit over excited about this but I've never seen it make much difference. It should do in theory.

[p1nkfish] 22/6/2023 15:04

Well I was wrong unless something useful happens between now and 30/6.

[loglorry1] 22/6/2023 14:30

That's a bit of a drop. Did I miss something?

[p1nkfish] 20/6/2023 18:26

I've been wrong so far, quite obvious.

[p1nkfish] 20/6/2023 18:24

NAS joined THE FTSE250 with first day of trade yesterday, 19th.
In effect he is saying they positioned on the 16th ready for the 19th?
See what happens by end of the month.

I'm often wrong but the volumes seemed a bit high vs what I expected.

Until month end jury is out as far as I'm concerned.
Currently sit at about 236 out of 250/1.

[peckers56] 20/6/2023 17:28

I attended today's AGM and asked Chris Mills his thoughts on Pinkfish's observations. He said it was Tracker Funds having to buy since the trust had made it into the FTSE 250.

[p1nkfish] 20/6/2023 01:56

Observation.

1) 170K traded (approx) 22/2/22 & 18/11/21 as 2 stand out volume days in the last 24 months.

2) 137.87K traded Fri 16/6/23, >129K went through at £39.10 or above towards daily high.

3) 10.5K traded Mon 19.6/23 BUT also reported late trades of 82,122 at >=£39.09 for Fri 16/6/23, towards daily high.

Fri 16/6/23 volume would then have been nearly 220K with about 211K changing hands towards £39.09-£39.11. The highest volume day since 21/11/2019 and much higher than the 170K volume on 2 days since.

Someone has been happy to buy at volume towards the daily high, let's see if price responds over the next few weeks.

If we close the month above £40 there will be a trend change on the daily, weekly and monthly level and a monthly volume higher than for a considerable time. Monthly volume local highs were 350K Feb 2022 and 394K Nov 2021. Closing at £40+ at 350K or more volume will be telling.

Confirmation on multiple timeframes (with volume) carries some weight. NAV gap may finally start to close without buybacks.

Dyor etc.

[p1nkfish] 15/6/2023 10:53

Wishful thinking on my part, perhaps, but it does look like it is setting up for a positive breakout.

[p1nkfish] 09/6/2023 19:55

If prepared to wait I don't think date wiggle room will matter.
Barring large tracker redemptions there should be a background level of drip-drip demand.

If we close the mouth > £40.60 at over 154K shares traded the TA will have improved also.
Current June run-rate is only 94K shares approx for the month. Weak so far.

19th June onwards will be interesting.

[apple53] 09/6/2023 12:07

Thanks for the extra info Pink.

First, announcement after close on 31st May makes very good sense from stock chart - up £3 in 2 days immediately. NAS should have told investors immediately. I would have bought more on the open.
However, it doesn't entirely make sense from the volume (as recorded on LSE). Close to zero on June 1st and still not much on 2nd. So maybe sellers pulled their offers and/or market makers (who are more switched on than us) immediately moved their offers.
What normally happens with larger stocks is that non-tracker short term traders buy lots, in preparation to sell to the trackers at a markup when they need to buy. Some trackers may have wiggle room in terms of a range of dates before and/or after to buy gradually.

With smaller, illiquid stocks I don't have the experience. It may be the £2-3 markup is all you're going to get, as the sellers who had their offers at £37, say, but pulled them when this news came out, will reappear, or already have done so, at £39, thanking their lucky stars. Or maybe the trackers' mandates will force them to push up the price into a sellers' strike and we'll reach £41-43.

Ordinarily, some of the froth will dissipate, but again who knows how much with such an illiquid stock. Maybe this will work as a successful discount control mechanism with the discount resetting at, say 15% or even 10%.

What I'm missing is knowledge of how much wiggle room the trackers have, datewise.

[loglorry1] 09/6/2023 12:00

yes I agree. I like it anyway as exposure to UK small caps which might one day get their mojo back and I certainly don't mind paying Mills a fee for his stock picking and access to deal flow which is going to be much better than my own.

[p1nkfish] 09/6/2023 09:58

L&G track all 250 too and others do too. Will stop posting now as it's becoming boring.

Either way there is a pool of demand waiting the likes of which hasn't seen looking back over recent history and there should be monthly arrivals into those etfs needing to be allocated unless a broad market redemption impact occurs.

Worth a speculative punt imho. Dyor etc and good luck.

[loglorry1] 09/6/2023 09:42

Thanks p1nkfish looks good analysis to me. I suppose all I could add is that I expect these funds to have some strategy to buy into new entrants (and sell out of) which does not cause spikes such that they would overpay. If they did not then they'd not manage to track well.

I think there is always quite a few NAS for sale. I was told this was largely due to the age of the investment trust. Early holders basically die and their estates are liquidated! This can cause quite large sells since it has 100 bagged since inception.

[p1nkfish] 09/6/2023 09:38

iShares FTSE250 tracker appears to hold £440K of CMC Markets.
Just 2 trackers = potential £1.3M demand = 32K+ shares.

Add in others and its more demand than NAS has seen for how long?



Dyor etc, I'm biased, I hold and have been adding.

Either way I'm OK hiding out here for the Autumn.

[p1nkfish] 09/6/2023 09:23

At £700M market cap it will be further up the 250 with a higher weighting too, more cash allocated.

For the life of me I can't see the price not rising once FTSE250 inclusion is complete.
What am I missing?

Some folk will no doubt sell.

£900K is 22,500 shares at £40.
Average daily volume for past 3 months is around 5.5K shares.

A spike may occur towards £48???

TBD.

[loglorry1] 09/6/2023 08:23

Does anyone know how far up the 250 we will be? Most of the tracker funds don't buy every component anyway they just use stats to buy a basket which tracks the index so closely anyway there is little to no error.

[p1nkfish] 08/6/2023 20:05

Very interested to see how this develops.
May be some positioning happening prior to first day of inclusion/trading in the FTSE250.
Volume today > 27% more than the previous 3 month daily average.
Still > 20% discount to the conservative NAV.
I think the gap will reduce.

[p1nkfish] 08/6/2023 19:09

Supposedly announced/confirmed after market close May 31st.

[p1nkfish] 08/6/2023 19:04

May when the quarterly changes were announced by FTSE. Confirmed in the vox interview yesterday.

[apple53] 08/6/2023 18:15

Thanks for flagging this.
Do you know when it was officially announced? It doesn't seem to have merited an RNS.

[p1nkfish] 08/6/2023 16:18

A proper FTSE250 tracker that doesn't buy will automatically introduce their own tracking error.

It will be interesting to see what happens and anyone expecting new demand to arrive, and the NAV discount to close, might make a few bob buying now. Index tracking money that tracks accurately based on market cap has no choice but to buy.

[p1nkfish] 08/6/2023 14:03

It is and some etfs have to buy to track = demand.