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Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Hotel Chocolat Group Plc LSE:HOTC London Ordinary Share GB00BYZC3B04 ORD 0.1P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -2.00 -1.36% 145.00 72,804 16:35:09
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
145.00 147.00 148.00 146.00 146.50
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Food Producers 164.55 7.82 4.50 32.2 199
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
17:07:58 O 53,179 149.00 GBX

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Date Time Title Posts
01/12/202207:31Hotel Chocolate462
24/7/200310:39hotComm CL - No good on WIn 98?1

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Posted at 04/12/2022 08:20 by Hotel Chocolat Daily Update
Hotel Chocolat Group Plc is listed in the Food Producers sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker HOTC. The last closing price for Hotel Chocolat was 147p.
Hotel Chocolat Group Plc has a 4 week average price of 143p and a 12 week average price of 117p.
The 1 year high share price is 532p while the 1 year low share price is currently 114p.
There are currently 137,278,264 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 693,260 shares. The market capitalisation of Hotel Chocolat Group Plc is £199,053,482.80.
Posted at 30/9/2022 16:07 by jeanesy
Price falling back further this week. Retailers in general getting hammered. Will people still buy chocolate in a recession.. I think so myself but higher end chocolate . not sure ?
Posted at 14/9/2022 13:51 by sphere25
The short version:

Long a speculative chump change amount of HOTC as a high risk short term play with an exit (small loss) if no momentum.

The long version:

How much risk tolerance do folk have in this market?

HOTC have disappointed recently and you can get clobbered really quickly on all sorts in this market but this buying looks interesting. They're coming in for big chunks of the company here. A couple of trades going through of 3.7m and 3.5m which are significant with a whopping total exchange amount of 12.9m at present.

It is highly illiquid this one and the market makers won't let you buy or sell in size once it starts moving - clearly very important if it moves against you. Tried to follow the buying in to see if sellers can be cleared here but only managed a small 2k at the 140p price point I was willing to pay.

Is it even worth a go? The buying at 140p got closed off. Now the offer is 142p and can't buy at the offer.

I can see 2023 is going to be bad and it is all about 2024 onwards:

"THE LIBERUM VIEW

Despite the short-term profits setback, Liberum Capital is sticking with its bullish stance on Hotel Chocolat, which ‘reported a strong FY22 leading to a beat on the top line and should deliver ahead of expectations on profits.

‘However, the focus will be on its strategic decision to drive greater profitability and cash generation as it focuses on its higher returning business units. This means full-year 2023 will be a transitionary period as the business will reshape accordingly and pair back investment in some of its newer ventures. Together with near-term cost inflation this will lead to some short-term forecast pain for 2023 but lays the foundation for the deliverability of circa 20% EBITDA margins within three years’.

Considering the backdrop, the broker believes management are ‘making the prudent decisions to drive profitability and cash by making less risky decisions.’"


IF these buyers have cleared the sellers (note two major insiders hold 54%), the price could pop quite quickly and the short term trade could work, even if it spikes and then eventually comes back down. IF not, then the price could flatline and an exit around 135p-140p depending on the RSP bid in the market.

In a more bullish market and without a warning, clearly it is easier to chase a price higher and be more attacking but these are treacherous times and who wants to keep getting kicked in the financial gonads?

Bulls vs Bears:

The big buyers here are clearly expecting the worst next year and happier times thereafter, which would result in a very shrewd looking move here in the longer term. The big sellers must believe the opposite and expect that things will deteriorate alot further and that HOTC does not represent value here. However, it looks like the plonkers at Jupiter (3.3% as at 30th June and no news release since) are on the register here too so there could be some forced sales at work too.

Who is right and who is wrong?

Time will tell.

Do I care who ends up right as a short term trader?

Yes. I want a demand imbalance so the bulls win in the very near term so I can lob at a higher price, preferably at least 10% from here. Beyond that, no.

Will the price actually move?

Don't be an idiot! Nothing moves higher in this market!

Should you buy?

Definitely not.


Now let's sit back and watch it do absolutely nothing.


You know when the risk-reward changes, it certainly won't take this level of buying to peek a curiosity trade.


All imo
DYOR

Posted at 11/9/2022 17:59 by halfpenny
Too Risky and can go bust after all the hype. The HOTC hotel in St Lucia some say is too Expensive like its Shares. Good value at 90p with everyone tightening their belts due to fuel cost - capped bills will still be very expensive for most and will also hit HOTC costs big time!! Staying away to return at 90p or less.. try the Milky Bar Kid?!!!
Posted at 04/8/2022 21:20 by gregpeck7
Oil price now falling really fast. From 125 down to 93 in a month. This will get the ball rolling on cost of living and start to calm things down. Oil price gets into everything. If we can see it below 75 to 80 will be a huge shot in the arm. Personally I think it's gonna come down very very quickly now
Posted at 02/8/2022 19:49 by cirlbunting1
Bull & Bear case on HOTC.

Long but detailed thread (I hope). Also has a spreadsheet attached which has numbers that go back since admission (admin done for you).

& ignore the typos if you see any!

https://twitter.com/CirlBunt1ng/status/1554548696771084288?s=20&t=FnGxVHtQt8F-UVU-38tJCQ

Posted at 19/7/2022 12:17 by wallywoo
I reckon with the 148 share floatation price that will become resistance for any share price recovery. However, still a nice quick earner at 120 if you are prepared to take the risk!!
Posted at 19/7/2022 11:10 by bulltradept
Hotel Chocolat melts in the heat
The market was spooked by warnings of a full-year loss and a new approach to international opportunities
July 19, 2022
By Christopher Akers


Revenue beats expectations
Lower growth forecast
Hotel Chocolat’s (HOTC) shares had a bitter fall on Tuesday morning, tumbling more than 40 per cent after the the premium chocolatier said it expected to make a statutory loss for the year to 26 June and revealed impairment charges and plans for international investment to be “materially reduced”.

HOTC:LSE
Hotel Chocolat Group PLC

1mth
Today change
-47.89%Price (GBP)
122.45
The trading update said that the company would be hit by non-cash impairment on £23mn of loans made to its Japan joint venture – with a possible “full impairment charge” – and £3mn of provisions will be recognised due to closed stores in the US.

International expansion plans will be scaled back, with the company funding “necessary working capital only, without making speculative investments in customer acquisition or capex”. The US market will become online and wholesale only. Management argued that the UK has a "significantly larger addressable market size" than previously thought, due to progress made with - for example - online sales and new products such as the Velvetiser hot chocolate machine.

The top line brought some relief. Revenue was up by 37 per cent to £226mn, ahead of market consensus expectations, and by 70 per cent against pre-pandemic. But the company also highlighted that there will be lower sales growth and profits in the near-term as it pivots to focus on “its most proven and lower-risk strategies” over the next few years.

Peel Hunt analysts said that plans for the US and Japan “will come as a surprise to many, and a disappointment, as these were obviously the first real steps to demonstrate that [the company] was able to become a global brand”. The broker downgraded its recommendation to hold. We do the same, on the basis of a weakened outlook and a revised business focus. Hold.

Last IC View: Buy, 440p, 3 Mar 2022

Posted at 05/5/2022 17:10 by williamcooper104
Alas if it goes wrong you can't eat the share price £10 for 3 became £12 for 3 pretty quickly
Posted at 19/1/2022 10:37 by toffeeman
The Times:

Hotel Chocolat
Maple and pecan, raspberry and pistachio — no wonder Hotel Chocolat’s mission is “making people happy through chocolate”. Angus Thirlwell, the company’s co-founder and guiding light, is ringing the changes on flavours, to tasty effect.

He delivered a bullish trading update yesterday, saying that second-quarter revenue was 37 per cent higher than the year before and 62 per cent up on the pre-Covid quarter two years ago as customers traded up to bigger boxes of more luxury chocs. Half-year sales were ahead by 40 per cent and 56 per cent, respectively.

“All our growth drivers are behind the acceleration in sales,” Thirlwell said, pointing to its Velvetiser in-home drinks system, VIP Loyalty rewards and digital, while also name-checking the United States, global wholesale and the company’s joint venture in Japan.

By any normal yardstick, the shares are ridiculously expensive. The 515p share price is supported by earnings per share of a tiny 4.5p for the financial year to last June and the first half of the present year suggests that may grow to only about 6.3p this time. So a historic 114 price-to-earnings ratio probably will fall only to a stratospheric 81 or so when the 2021-22 results are published in the autumn. And there’s no suggestion of a dividend.

On similar grounds, this column advised avoiding the shares two years ago because they seemed too expensive. They were 330p then, so may be one of those cases that defy gravity and the usual financial yardsticks, for a while at least.

Much of the recent growth stemmed from online spending as lockdowns restricted other opportunities, which will not continue indefinitely. However, the company has sound expansion plans in its main British, American and Japanese markets, with the long-term prospect of spreading to new territories. However, with such success come threats: one day competitors will nibble on its recipe.

Much hangs on the half-year numbers that are due on March 2. The share price has fluctuated either side of 500p since October. However, Peel Hunt analysts think that 600p is a fair prospect.

ADVICE Hold

Posted at 27/11/2021 15:55 by gengulphus
Always weird closing prices on this share. Why?

Looking at the trades lists for the last week, the "UT" type trade that completes the closing auction for the share is often either for a very small number of shares (e.g. 8 on Tuesday, 27 on Monday) or it didn't happen at all (on Wednesday and Friday) because everyone trying to sell in the closing auction wanted a higher price than anyone trying to buy in the closing auction was willing to pay. Only on Thursday did a decent number of shares (3,232) get traded in the closing auction. Looking a week or two further back indicates this is quite a common pattern for HOTC.

That's relevant because the normal way the LSE determines the closing price is that it's the price of the "UT" type trade that completes the closing auction. If that trade is the result of very few market participants actually trading in the closing auction, that becomes heavily influenced by just what those few market participants want to do - and so the closing price may end up being determined by what just a few people are doing rather than by what a broad sample of market participants are doing. That's liable to lead to unexpectedly high- or low-looking closing prices.

And if no shares at all are traded in the closing auction, the LSE falls back on other ways to determine a closing price. I forget what they are, but they're often also not very good at judging what a broad sample of market participants reckon is a fair price at the end of the day.

It's one of the drawbacks of being invested in not-very-liquid shares - trying to come up with an across-the-market "fair price" for the shares often runs into "insufficient data for a reliable answer" problems.

Gengulphus

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