Didn't realise that Applied Nutrition are promoting Endurance Vimto, and along with Brand Ambassador Coleen Rooney which should help raise profile of Vimto. Starting to see Endurance Vimto on the shelves more frequently.
Wonder if Applied Nutrition and Nichols will look to further collaborate given their similar ambitions re distribution strategies. Especially as they are based just a few miles from each other, and ex CEO of Nichols now a non Exec of Applied Nutrition. |
All quiet here, only a couple of weeks to the finals results. All seems well, maybe another special share holder distribution ? |
Singer -
Forecasts & valuation To reflect the FY PBT outcome being in line with consensus expectations we nudge up our FY24 adj. PBT by £0.2m (+1%) to £30.1m. By way of reminder our PBT forecast 12m ago was £28.5m, so cumulative upgrades of 6% prior to today. We leave outer year profit forecasts unchanged. Given expectation of high single-digit EPS growth over the medium-term, a progressive DPS and scope for further special distributions and/or M&A, the shares on a cal’25 EV/EBITDA of 12.5x (vs 14.5x 10-year average) are not fully discounting future value creation. We leave our 1440p TP (14.5x cal’25 EV/EBITDA) unchanged. |
A healthy net cash position, a defensive sector and further special dividends with growth. |
Each year I keep thinking the US market is overpriced and heading for a fall so I avoid it. And each year I am wrong. And my very UK dominated portfolio slides further.
Still just underwater with these from 2021 but it does look a surprising recent rise in a weak market, there might be further gains ahead, holding and hoping. |
Be wary with US also though. Out of the S&P 500 there are only about 10 that have done anything. Look at the likes of PayPal, Paramount, Walgreens and even Disney. They've been hammered.
UK stocks trading at 10x P/E
US stocks 25x average. Tech stocks 50-100x earnings. Madness and pure momentum trading. |
I'm out.
Luck to all holders.
Gradually selling my UK shares. Sick of the market here. |
Well, it's possible that the family would want to take NICL private, although I'm not sure who in the family would show the leadership or inclination to make that happen. The family speak for around 35% of the share capital, and management wouldn't add much to that. So, they would need launch a SV and drum up £300M plus a premium of perhaps £150M making around £450M from loans to get 100%. Seems a stretch to me. And as been discussed previously, whilst the family still own 35% a takeover would be very difficult unless the "family" wanted out.
Either way, back to the immediate future, perhaps we will get another special dividend if no suitable acquisition has been identified. |
I don't see a buy out happening, but I'm hopeful of a return to those levels |
Holding out for a return to 1600-1700p.
Or a buy out. |
Top sliced 15% tuesday. Still holding plenty. |
It finally looks like the BB title is apt again! |
 Telegraph Questor Tip
19th november
'Why shares in Vimto and Slush Puppie maker continue to reward investors after 100 years'
A first-ever capital markets day from soft drinks specialist Nichols shows how this well-run business continues to develop, as management implements distinct strategies for all three parts of the company – packaged drinks for the UK market, packaged drinks for overseas markets and the out of home (OOH) segment, which serves the hospitality industry.
The roll-out of an SAP-based enterprise resourcing planning software supports a business transformation programme that should deliver ongoing productivity gains, to the benefit of margins, even as the company invests in its brand range, which includes Vimto, Slush Puppie and Levi Roots.
Nichols share price performance
The plan is to increase share in the UK market, which represents around half of group sales, accelerate growth in the overseas business, which generates a quarter of revenue (primarily from the Middle East and Africa), and work on costs in the OOH operation. The OOH business is already delivering here, as it ceases to supply unprofitable customers, improves procurement and targets cost efficiencies.
The key question for investors now is to decide whether Nichols can successfully deploy these strategies and in turn meet its medium-term financial goals. Chief executive Andrew Milne and the board are targeting a 30pc uplift in sales, an extra 250 basis points (2.5 percentage points) in profit margin and a 50pc increase in pre-tax income to £45m.
Assuming a 25pc rate of corporation tax and an unchanged share count, this implies an earnings per share figure of more than 90p and thus a forward earnings multiple of barely 14 times. That would look low for a business with an operating margin of 20pc, high returns on capital, a debt-free balance sheet and a record of consistent cash generation.
All of those facets underpin dividend payments. The 6.6pc forward yield for this year may be a little deceptive, as it owes much to the autumn’s 54.8p-a-share special payment, although that welcome sum takes the total banked since our initial analysis to 259.4p a share, with the prospect of more to come. Nichols can still reward patient support.
Questor says: hold
Ticker: NICL:AIM
Share price: £12.95 |
Nichols Plc NICL: Peel Hunt raises to buy from add. |
NICL saving my portfolio from a total beating today.
Highest share price since july 2022. |
Nichols PLC (NICL:LN) PT Raised to GBP12.30 at Deutsche Bank
November 11, 2024 |
UBS raised PT to 1230 from 1100, so I guess a positive outcome from the Capital Markets Day. |
Exciting that they'll be entering South Africa next year. Huge market.On the other hand, their pace of new geographic market entry is too slow. A more ambitious management would create a separate team, and target 2 a year instead of 1. No obstacles to doing so, especially as they're pursuing a capex light model for new geos already, fully outsourcing everything to partners.(i hold in the Boon Fund) |
Investor Presentation Video |
Bullish targets.
Very. |
TL;DR- more detailed note coming soon, with CMD analysis- our current year forecasts are prudent- holding their forecast (61.5p adj EPS) for now and target price (1440p)- see more upside than downside risk on forecastsIMO this really should be trading north of 20x PE, which would be at the very least 1230p.(I hold in the Boon Fund) |
Singer -
CMD to detail growth ambitions; FY24 trading in line Nichols is holding a Capital Markets Day today which will update on execution of the Group’s growth strategy. Ahead of this it has shared its medium-term financial ambitions - £225m revenue; 20% PBT margin (+250bps vs FY24e cons); and PBT of £45.0m (+50% vs FY24e cons). We will publish a more detailed note following the CMD, providing insight into opportunities/levers across the business units to drive faster growth, EPS scenario analysis and capital allocation options. The update comments that FY24 trading remains in line with management expectations. Whilst we make no forecast changes, we see the risk on the upside. Overall, we believe Nichols’ asset light, high margin and hugely cash generative model remains under appreciated on a cal’25 EV/EBITDA of 11x - Buy. Event Capital markets day today. The company is hosting a Capital Markets event this afternoon for investors and analysts to provide an update on the Group’s strategy and financial ambitions. We expect the event to focus on 4 key areas: 1. Mid-term financial targets and the capital allocation framework 2. Growth leavers / headroom in UK Packaged and OoH 3. Significant International Packaged opportunities 4. Internal transformation programme to support margin accretion Impact on earnings & valuation Our current year forecasts are prudent. To accompany news of the CMD event the company has reassured on FY24 trading, signalling it remains in line with management expectations with no change to previous guidance. Accordingly, we make no forecast changes but see the risk on the upside. By way of reminder in H1 Nichols delivered 18% growth in adj. PBT to £14.5m. This implies it needs to grow H2 adj. PBT by an undemanding 3% to £15.4m to hit our FY adj. PBT estimate of £29.9m. Valuation does not reflect the pace of travel. The shares had a good bounce around the interims in July, rising by 25% towards 1265p on the back of 4% EPS upgrades and a £20m special dividend. They have since given up some of these gains on wider IHT/Aim related concerns. The shares are currently trading on a FY24 EV/EBITDA of 12x falling to 11x. This is at a discount to the 10-year average of 14x, despite a much-improved growth outlook post the strategic reset and upward margin momentum. Our 12m TP of 1440p is based on an undemanding cal’25 EV/EBITDA of 13x. Given the long runway for growth, a progressive DPS and the real possibility of further ‘special’; distributions and M&A, we stay positive. |
Capital Markets Day tomorrow. |
Noticed a timely piece of IHT planning the day before the budget; transfer of shares from Matthew to his two children. However, does confirm that the family holding speaks for 35.9% of shares issued.Unlikely that any suitor could organise a hostile takeover, unless the family agree. |
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