Mutha yes . Given they upgraded last quarter i am hoping we hear the magic upgrading word again on Wednesday . SCSW stated it thought that the company was entering a new upgrade cycle when it tipped this last summer and when the first results came in they indeed signalled the upgrade |
I would suggest that FY25 ebitda could be as much as 140m. Margin recovery is still a work in progress and with potential productivity gains and consequential cost reductions from AI this should be achievable |
Cavendish has a $25 price target
Brokers just upgraded MGNI price target to $25 too but they are $17 currently we are $8 !!
(Annoying post I know) |
ok $107m EBITDA is expected |
john - TTM = trailing twelve months |
The court settlement over Alphonso hopefully was important. But am I right in saying Nexxen went for ACR data in a different direction after that debacle... via VIDAA investment in June 2022?
"Nexxen has exclusive access to VIDAA ACR data Following our strategic investment of $25 million into VIDAA, the partnership has enabled the launch of Nexxen's TV Intelligence offering in key markets such as the US, Canada, UK, and now, Australia."
"VIDAA selected Nexxen as its strategic SSP and integrated ad server, allowing for data + media synergies. Following our strategic investment of $25 million into VIDAA, the partnership has enabled the launch of Nexxen's TV Intelligence offering in key markets such as the US, Canada, UK, and now, Australia." |
 The executed settlement agreement includes a cash component and a commercial strategic partnership that resolves the disputes underlying the complaints, thus concluding the parties' litigation.
Alphonso will grant Nexxen access to monetize a portion of LG's premium CTV inventory and will also leverage Nexxen's data-driven discovery and segmentation tools.
"This agreement marks the start of a strategic partnership between two global leaders in the CTV sphere. Nexxen's access to LG's CTV media is a boon for advertisers looking for engaged audiences, unique reach, and global scale across millions of screens. In turn, Nexxen's platform and data-driven tools augment LG's own advertising, unlocking unique insights to drive more precise and actionable campaign strategies. I look forward to building a solid strategic partnership between our companies and am pleased to have put these legal issues behind us," said Ofer Druker, CEO of Nexxen International.
"We are happy to have resolved these legal issues and to provide Nexxen access to some of our premium owned and operated inventory on LG Channels," said Serge Matta, President of Global Ad Sales at Alphonso. "We are pleased to focus on cooperation over the coming years."
Feb 2024 |
Ive done sone charting this morning too.
At £3.26 ish old money i have us bang on the lower upward trend line that started in Q4 2023 so it’s all intact but that share price rise after Q3 results has unwound |
Morning Im not sure what TTM is ? but this from Q3:
Reaffirming full year 2024 Contribution ex-TAC in a range of approximately $340 - $345 million
Raising full year 2024 Adjusted EBITDA to approximately $107 million from approximately $100 million
so EBITDA should be $107m from the $69m the previous year its a good jump and if we expect growth of 10% this current year it allows them to state record EBITDA is forecast if the previous record was $115m we are looking more like $118m for current year
And the only forecast I have seen for EPS was $0.69 for the year just gone and $0.82 for the current year but those were before the buyback and remember a quarter of the market cap is in cash and thats why i now get to a current PE of 10 but more like 7.5 less cash |
LG first bought Alphonso in 2021, which was later rebranded to LG Ads, to support the TV manufacturer's ad tech ambitions with Alphonso's automatic content recognition technology. But how did the relationship between LG's executive team and Alphonso's shareholders sour so quickly? |
Muthadrucker,
It is late for me. I did not get all of that, because I am too thick and had a drop too many.
What I take out is that there are new opportunities becoming available.
Your $25 value sounds wonderful, like Barky's £24.
Has not happened! How much longer?
No one knows.
Will have to play it by ear.......
Good post !
R |
Nothing much to add to the above except that Trade Desk must be feeling the heat; my recollections are that TTD had sought to distinguish its offering in part through its emphasis on data driven decision making as well as the transparency of its platform versus competitor black box models. And yet here was the great TradeDesk doing a deal with minnow NEXN for its data. I love it.Data is king. |
Two analyst upgrades for Magnite with new TP of $22 and $25. If realised would take its valuation comfortably above 3B. A relative valuation for Nexxen would be 1.5 to 2B or $25/share |
What No One's Talking About From TTD's Convoluted Earnings Call
TTD's #1 priority (out of 15 total) is SCALE-but that really means they're laser-focused on the Fortune 100, not the Fortune 500+. Their strategy? Strike direct JBP (Joint Business Partnerships) with the biggest brands, capitalizing on Google's retreat from the open internet.
This means mid-market clients and agencies are being deprioritized in favor of the largest advertisers-just like Google.
But the biggest fallout? HoldCos.
TTD just parted ways with several high profile executives in their HoldCo business and have diverted many sales resources toward brand direct sales. On the earnings call, they fired a huge shot across the bow, repeatedly emphasizing "JBP" and "Brand Direct."
TTD now treats agencies as a pass-through. The final straw? Agency reluctance to adopt Kokai. Agencies know Kokai isn't about Al—it's about fees. They've been pushing back on rising costs, lack of transparency, and Google-like behavior. So, TTD is going around them, selling directly to brands.
This shift is huge. It means money will shake out of TTD and into alternative providers, creating new opportunities for the rest of the open internet. Hey! Maybe the leader of the open internet does care about someone other than themselves?
That said, I do believe TD will convince some Fortune 100 brands to sign JBP deals, as spend shifting out of DV360 is inevitable. But this strategy carries great risk to TTD and great opportunity for everyone else. These "one-size-fits-all" global platforms cater to P&G and Unilever, leaving a huge market need for others to serve diverse mix advertisers(more on that in a later post).
So Who is TTD Now?
TTD is in no man's land-becoming Google but staying focused on big brand advertising instead of outcomes. Seems puzzling, given that Google, Meta, and Amazon control ~65% of the market and all prioritize outcomes (regardless of the quality of outcomes they claim to drive). But P&G-type clients aren't outcome-obsessed, which gives great insight into TTD's product roadmap.
Where's the Innovation?
There isn't any. That's why he's firing people and making changes to Product & Eng teams while slotting Al at #9 on their priority list. No bold, industry-leading innovation and no clear narrative (which is critical). That's why investors are running. Al will define the next generation of ad tech, and despite its market position, TTD has nothing real to show for
Jeff Green has built a hugely successful company (let's give him his flowers). But if TTD had real answers, he would have stated them clearly. Instead, his lack of clarity suggests deeper problems—which is why investors are running for safety.
Viant's pipeline has been swelling because agencies need:
True innovation and unique partnerships to win new business
Products that drive real outcomes so they can be fairly compensated for client growth
TTD isn't speaking that language. |
Ragos,
Absolutely. Ofer was keen to move to sole listing, just like he was keen for the Dual listing in 2021. Look what happened back then.
My opinion based on company newsflow/facts was that the urgency to dual list was to do with the Alphonso court case.
As expected, that turned out to be case.
"That tells me there was a sudden need to list with days of the fy results being published, timing which coincides with the alphonso dispute."
The company was already dual listed.
US investors were already aware of the company.
Other companies, 'peers', within adtech industry would have been aware of the company and it's history. |
Interesting thanks
The Magnite CEO addressed the comments that the TTD CEO made at the start of the MGNI earnings call too. Interesting that all have chosen to address it
The others points that i refer to regarding TTDs drop however are analysts comments about the industry and not TTD CEO comments |
Couple of things relating to TTD. Firstly, back in November on the earnings call Jeff Green said that the scale of the opportunity for DSPs going forward was huge and his main concern was not being able to address it all. He also said on the recent call that the issues they had were self inflicted and not due to any market downturn.
Secondly, Chris Vanderhook of Viant has written a piece highlighting the particular problems that TTD are facing which in fact, if true, is good for smaller competitors. He said Viant’s pipeline remains strong. Clearly there is history between him and Jeff Green but it is a well reasoned analysis. I tried to copy and paste it here but it didn’t work.
My view is still that Viant and Nexxen will deliver great numbers next week but for the share price to shift significantly, it will depend on whether the guidance backs up all the rhetoric we’ve heard over the last few months |
I got this following an email I sent to the support team of HL.This was prior to the blanket email sent by HL Friday.
'At this time, we are unable to facilitate online dealing for the holding. However, we have been able to arrange the capacity to allow telephone trading with our stock brokers. Please note though that this applies to sales only and it is currently not possible to purchase more shares with our stock brokers.'
It seems temporary to me.
Surprisingly it would seem Iweb have online buying and selling. I have not bought or sold so cannot say for sure. |
In the Q&A When Laura questioned how his data could be so important because data is about scale and so TTD was the clear winner in that respect he said that their data was unique and was predominantly acquired from Ameobe so would be good if someone could look into that
Research is the antidote to some of the “whats happening here” “OMG whats going on” Type questions that i am seeing posted. Most of the answers are out there |
So i think Q4 will be blowout results. This full Nasdaq listing has been in plan for a long time and they chose their moment.
What was not foreseen was the TTD results on the 12th February which I understand has brought into question from analysts the value of DSPs and the role of DSPs with the very biggest clients like Amazon and Meta etc who may cut out the middle man, that was one thing. The other things TTD called out (or analysts subsequently called out) was :
- the sheer competition in this area (thats good for us because we are the competition !)
- the number of publishers and a sense they will have to consolidate not the amazon primes and Netflix of this world but the next ones down and the ones below that eg Paramout
- and TTD making some missteps (thats also good for us!) |
I listened to the Q3 results call again . It was super confident, bullish, upbeat and polished
They stated that there were “In advanced discussions with many others seeking to license our ACR data, including some of the industry's largest and most-recognized names”
Ofer also snook in that Nexxen are partnering with open Ai with their data. He also stated that Nexxen's ACR data segments are also now available on StackAdapt's programmatic platform for activation in the U.S.
You’ll then recall that we received the news subsequently that they “announced sports related tailwinds”R30; “ programmatic advertising platform StackAdapt - Nexxen is able to offer advertisers the opportunity to boost campaign engagement and drive spend. In 2024, Nexxen experienced a 315% increase in spend on live sports deals from StackAdapt campaigns.”
He said that the CTV growth is a function of them working on it since 2019 with Machine learning and it finally all clicking and was increasing revenues as the publisher and partnership list was growing so much.
He also said that inside and outside the business theyve done a lot of work to ensure that its Salesforce and its clients understand the proposition fully and that things were clicking.
They signed off with “Nexxen is poised to accelerate growth in 2025 through recently launched partnerships and data licensing opportunities scaling, while GenAl-fueled enhancements are expected to attract more partners to our platform.” |
Alternatively good results should help to close the valuation gap 🙏 |
As with Stagwell, we will be announcing results before the market opens, with a presentation from 2pm UK time.
I think this is positive as I don't believe they would announce bad news just before the market opens, they would leave it until close as with some of our peers, who's results have been underwhelming.
The results would need to be very poor to maintain our lowly comparative valuation to our US peers! |
tractor
The one thing about Nexxen that has impressed me is their execution excellence. They have built great tech and have great data. Now they are out selling it and we will know on Wednesday just how successful they have been. |
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