Nexxen Share Discussion Threads

[arthur turner] 16/4/2024 16:29

Lots of smallish sells today, any ideas on what might be going on ? It’s all gone a bit quiet something is in the air meethinks!

[tsmith2] 16/4/2024 08:08

No buy backs?

[barkbooo] 12/4/2024 15:02

Gadgie - if we are even close to those figures the share price would be cornered….then you are talking about a ballgame in another league.

This would have to move significantly.

Expected that to happen in 2014 - Edelman was hired to kill that plan….and the Cayman gangs finished off the BLNX play….Ofer would take a knife to a fist fight and this stock could get nice.

[gadgie2] 12/4/2024 13:56

132,589,742 shares as of today

50 million buyback at £2.40 = 20,833,333

give or take we end up about 112 million shares in issue

101,845,528 held by Majors ....

Leaves about 11 million shares in free float imagine another buy back LOL it's about to get very interesting ...

[tapa7] 12/4/2024 13:55

Tractor, upwards of 70% of your daily price action is done by HFT (high frequency trading) firms using algorithms and bots.

Those bots set stops and entries according to patterns, supports and resistances. The same resistance we have at 280-290bps could very well be the sell price for many bots.

TA is good to know to plan your entries so you're not caught out against the tide. Irrelevant in the long term.

[tapa7] 12/4/2024 12:13

Tractor

Yes, tea leaves!!! No actually, it is just TA. I mentioned it before on post #24002 in the old Tremor's thread that we were heading for 210bps, precisely the same price we have hit more than 20 sessions in the last 3 months.

The next resistance I see here is 280bps-290bps (also stated in that old post) but like I said in December, we left a gap at 250bps. This may actually be the first stop.

Here's how it is looking


Always happy to discuss TA.

[gadgie2] 12/4/2024 11:45

no more sold via Tosca

[tractorhead] 12/4/2024 11:26

Why do you throw around such numbers Tapa7? What on earth makes you able to say that 280 is the next "stop to close that gap". What does that even mean?

Sounds like tea leaves to me.

[tapa7] 12/4/2024 11:06

Breakout indeed 1gw.

I reckon if it holds till end of day then 280bps has to be the next stop to close that gap.

[jeffblume] 12/4/2024 10:51

Assuming the new 50 million buy back hasn’t started yet, can you imagine with this momentum how high the stock can go? 350 or 400?

[jeffblume] 12/4/2024 10:42

Thanks Gagi nice to see the stock price actually move.

[1gw] 12/4/2024 10:40

This looks like a fairly clear breakout on the chart now. Hope it continues.

[gadgie2] 12/4/2024 10:38

Don't think it's new but defo updated to x also amobee link still live

[jeffblume] 12/4/2024 10:33

Did I miss a PR about Amobee and X, or was the below text old information?

[arthur turner] 12/4/2024 10:28

Surely this is massive gadgie ? Or am I missing something!

[gadgie2] 12/4/2024 07:38

didn't realise Amobee and X were in partnership

By leveraging brand intelligence data and insights, real-time trend identification, historical consumer interests, and keyword associations, Amobee delivers targeted, relevant, and captivating digital experiences across all channels from a single platform. Amobee for X runs on the Amobee Advertising Platform, using the cross-channel Amobee DSP. Its ads API integration with X uses a unique targeting engine which analyzes over 60 billion digital content engagements daily across the web, mobile, social, and video.

Amobee delivers maximum reach and influence while increasing engagement, brand awareness, and affinity with Amobee Brand Intelligence technology and cross-channel digital marketing solutions.

In addition, Amobee for X includes: campaign management, optimization, and reporting on Amobee DSP; cross-channel campaigns across mobile, social, display, and video; real-time content discovery; influencer indexing and targeting; intent-driven keyword analysis/targeting; historical consumer interest targeting; demographic targeted by gender and enhanced geotargeting; and post delivery by country.

[whites123] 12/4/2024 07:18

Okay,

But has the consideration that LG / Alphonso settlement was far in advance of what has been muted here and that the latest figures would show NEXN awash with cash.
No acquisitions lined up and board obviously aware of where the bought back shares are coming from and they thought "How best do we bolster the share price and deliver a much improved share price for our shareholders". At the same time appear to be godlike in turning the misfortunes that have bestowed us for the last few years around.

Its an easy assumption and often the most plausible.

[tapa7] 12/4/2024 02:19

I find the buy out theory/conspiracy much more plausible.

If they want to be a target then this enhances their negotiation position, leading to a higher valuation/better terms for sale and therefore a higher chance that it gets approved by shareholders.

If they're already a target then without debt they are now less riskier to the acquiring party and may pass certain stress checks that previously they wouldn't have passed.

In fact, this is actually what I am slightly concerned about.
Yesterday we announced debt clearance, barely went up, no one cared.

A day later, its like someone has received some a call and some confirmation/good news that we are unware of, and we go up almost 8%.

I would genuinely hate to wake up to buy out news at this share price levels.

[tapa7] 12/4/2024 02:12

I will point out that in almost all cases lenders do not dictate a company's financial decisions such as a buyback nor do they have to approve it. They may in rare situations try to put pressure if the borrower is in a financially precarious position but even that is often hopeless and we are not a precarious borrower.

Even if there was a provision in the loan for Nexxen to maintain a certain debt/equity ratio, such ratio was worse last year than it is now and yet we executed multiple buybacks since. Where was this conspiracy then?

Not only is Nexxen and its shareholders in charge of deciding when to execute the buyback but they could also use the $90m undrawn credit facility that this lender provided to them a couple years back. There's no need to pay a penny of the debt, let alone the full amount.

It makes even less sense when you think about all those companies that get loans approved for the sole purpose of being able to carry out buybacks when they think they are deeply discounted.

[jeffblume] 12/4/2024 01:13

Excellent point. Bottom line is they need to perform. Do we need to wait for the buyback to start on May 1 or after or can they start buying back now?

[brimach1] 11/4/2024 23:45

Jeff……given past failures, cancelling the 50m buyback at this point, just after announcing it, would have damaged managements credibility beyond repair. As for keeping cash for acquisitions, Ofer has made it clear that he is done with that and emphasis is now on execution. It’s last orders in the last chance saloon. They gotta perform. A debt free performance will be an extra driver going forward.

[jeffblume] 11/4/2024 22:54

Brimsch, I thought about that too but I actually saw that as a positive sign and let me explain my thinking. They could have easily backed off to $50 million buyback and just kept that money in the bank and maybe for future acquisitions although the company wants to stay focused on organically growing. The fact that they did this tells me that they are so confident that they still want to go through with the buyback despite the bank perhaps requiring them to pay back the money. My guess is the bank if they were to do anything would say pay 50 million not the whole hundred million. I doubt the bank would’ve gotten in their way if they some Payment down. And my guess this was already considered before they announce that buyback. I could be wrong and believe me I’ve been in this waiting and waiting and waiting and we all have been down for so long it’s hard to believe but it does seem like this is all positive news but we shall find out

[wheeze] 11/4/2024 21:52

Well spotted Brimach1 - I think you've hit the nail on the head. Would not consider it a negative though...

[brimach1] 11/4/2024 21:25

Re the RNS....Nexxen Seeking Authorization for a New $50 Million Ordinary Share Repurchase Program.

The wording therein states….In addition, the commencement of the Ordinary Share repurchase program is subject to receipt of the consent of the Company's bank lenders.

I’ve no wish to knock the cream of the bun but rather than assuming that Nexxen’s early repayment of the $100m term loan is due to management’s newfound confidence, has anyone given consideration to the possibility that the lenders insisted that the term loan was repaid first and that Nexxen was obliged to make that payment in order to get the $50m buyback of the ground?
It’s not easy for me to post up a negative possibility like this in the light of all the positive assumption that have been postulated here and elsewhere but it has to be a consideration. That said, it’s a positive that we had the cash to do it, and Nexxen is now dept free.