Newriver Reit Share Discussion Threads

[minerve] 20/9/2018 14:51

Well said Lord Gnome. I suppose I should get back to NewRiver. It has been a good thread and I shouldn't spoil it with my views. I've appreciated all contributions here recently. Good ones. :)

[minerve] 20/9/2018 13:12

Look at Carillion. Great private sector venture there guys! Gone down the tubes and the tax payer will no doubt have to pick-up some of the mess. Like the tax payer had to bail out the private sector banks.

I am neutral on private vs public but I get tired of this pro private sector as if it is the answer to all our prayers. It isn't. Some things are best done privately, some things are best left to the state. End of.

[minerve] 20/9/2018 13:08

fenners66

"Minerve - there will be exceptions on both sides of course - but in general the public sector mentality is that they have nothing to answer for - take the NHS for instance - overspends by £2bn or so a year and what then ?"

Where do you think a lot of that so called public sector money goes? The NHS pumps £Bns into the private sector which need to make a profit for shareholders. The likes of Virgin Healthcare and Capita. I don't know about you, but I don't see why tax payers should be subsidizing the private sector and Branson's Necker Island when those profits are better spent on child cancer treatment.

You need to understand the nature of the beast rather than the top-line nonsense you read in the tabloids.

[chucko1] 20/9/2018 12:18

@SpectoAcc, you are buying when “others are fearful”. I hope you are well on your way to becoming a billionaire.

The fear is a little overdone, anyway.

[fenners66] 19/9/2018 20:36

Minerve - there will be exceptions on both sides of course - but in general the public sector mentality is that they have nothing to answer for - take the NHS for instance - overspends by £2bn or so a year and what then ?

They do it again the following year after all budgets in the public sector mean nothing - just borrow more or raise more taxes.

Private sector tries the same - it goes bust - chance (though for the management often not high enough) you'll lose your job.....

[essentialinvestor] 19/9/2018 15:06

Hp, incredible, looks like Neil's picked another one.


SLI investment manager report may be worth a read, nothing relevatory though.
Sold some SLI recently as could not justify holding at a NAV premium.

Hoped MKLW would come back a bit, but no such luck atm.

HLCL sold one of their London commercial offices at a tasty NAV premium last week I noticed.

[minerve] 19/9/2018 15:02

IG may not be using shares for short positions. If it is a spread-bet they tend to balance the books with opposite betters. If they refuse a short it is most likely because there isn't enough long business to balance the books and they have extended their risk as far as they are prepared. It probably isn't because they can't get loan stock - they generally don't use it because it costs them.

[minerve] 19/9/2018 14:59

"Public sector ..... tragic."

fenners66, it isn't as straightforward as that. Look at Thames Water - a complete and utter privatization disaster. For sake of the thread I will leave it there. But if people think private vs public has a general clear winner they are deluded.

[hpcg] 19/9/2018 14:57

PURP collapsing. More pressure on the Woodford funds, directly and conceptually. Off topic, but I do wonder if it might spill over into Hargreaves Landsdown as they have been ramptastic on Woodford for years, and his funds are still top of the searches over there. So, irrespective of the business itself, potentially more NRR to hit the book.

[hpcg] 19/9/2018 14:01

Careful Specto I might vote for you. Slightly disagree about the need to change VAT vs income tax ratio from where it is, but give me rational over idealogical every day of the week.

[fenners66] 19/9/2018 13:16

And that interest bill is with rates at all time low levels ..... just think what would happen if we had a govt that announced they were going to spend another £500bn !

[spectoacc] 19/9/2018 12:55

Land tax - end of CGT exemption on main residence - increase IHT (best time to tax people is when they're dead) - use VAT over income tax (tax spending more & earning less so) - lower spending for a smaller govnt sector - acknowledgement that the NHS is flawed but cheap and you'll probably die in it - use what's best, not what's idealogical (privatise/PFI where it works, don't where it doesn't) - aim at lower & fewer taxes - abolish corporation tax & end the vast wasteful avoidance industry - cut pensions even to existing pension drawers.

Certainly unelectable ;)

PS We're £1.8trn in debt & counting, & spend as much on debt interest as we do on defence.

(Climbs down from soapbox).

[speedsgh] 19/9/2018 12:46

Specto - Stop talking such common sense. You're obviously not politician material! ;-)

[spectoacc] 19/9/2018 12:34

Imagine if the ultra-cheap lending to buy dodgy shopping centres was lent instead to build modern council housing.. But you're right - we've strayed too far OT! :)

[speedsgh] 19/9/2018 12:00

@Specto - Agree entirely on your comments re councils not being irrational, but rather foolish.

I am quite happy with the acronym HTB. It's just that it should be Help-To-Build. I can't see that Help-To-Buy is doing anything to tackle the core problem. But we won't go there! ;-)

[spectoacc] 19/9/2018 11:49

@speeds - as far as I can tell, the problem lies with central govnt. They've permitted councils to use the special borrowing scheme (at ultra-low rates) to pile into (in some cases) random commercial assets, at the same time as cutting their income. In many ways, councils aren't being irrational. But they are being foolish.

Help-to-buy is another scheme we should discuss at some length.

[speedsgh] 19/9/2018 11:37

Interesting question, Specto. Are councils being mis-advised or are they just willing to pay more to secure the income to help fill the shortfall in the services that they still have to provide? Presumably councils are also competing against councils to acquire some assets which is compounding the issue. If councils are willing to accept a lower return on assets acquired than other purchasers and pay over the odds to secure that asset/income, is that the fault of their advisers (external surveyors etc)?

It will be interesting to see what will happen when i) the income streams on which they had based their investment case turn out to be less secure than they had envisaged; ii) the assets turn out to be worth a lot less further down the line. It's a very interesting topic which could be debated ad nauseam.

[spectoacc] 19/9/2018 10:21

@fenners66 - I reckon the secondary scandal will be the advisors, ie surveyors etc. Councils are taking (& paying for) advice, but seems clear from the assets/yields that it isn't, ahem, the best advice they're getting.

[fenners66] 19/9/2018 10:09

Councils run by those who would fail in the private sector - now trying to compete with people who know what they are doing - all without the checks and balances that risking your own capital/job/profits would bring.

Public sector ..... tragic.

[speedsgh] 19/9/2018 08:26

Specto - Agree wholeheartedly with your comments re LAs 'investing' in commercial property, in particular outside their geographical bounds contributing to artificially inflated comm prop values/asking prices. Recipe for disaster imo. Wouldn't want to be holding that baby when the plug is pulled out of the bath!

[spectoacc] 19/9/2018 07:38

Good (if small) deal for NRR, but also a reminder how councils have been spending our money (actually money borrowed at low rates from govnt scheme, but we're ultimately on the hook). Buying commercial assets to gain an income stream to mitigate central funding cuts - fine. But councils are mugs. £75m for remaining 50% at 6.5% yield - seriously? No wonder asset prices & NAVs are holding up! Anchored by Fenwicks (department store), Next, M&S, Primark. I'd fancy Primark to still be there in 5 years time.

6.5% is fine - just - for an asset that isn't in structural decline, and where the loss of say 2 of those 4 tenants doesn't cause the others to start to flounder.

Edit - the excuse given by councils is that they always take professional advice. It's a scandal that'll break in the next recession. Some are worse than others - buying the local shopping centre to try to revitalise it ins't necessarily a bad (tho risky) use of borrowed money, but some are eg buying office blocks 100 miles away, out-bidding the private sector thanks to quasi-govnt borrowing rates.

Gone a bit OT but relevant to the NAVs (for the moment..) of the likes of NRR.

[eeza] 19/9/2018 07:08

RNS
Asset Management agreement.

[spectoacc] 18/9/2018 18:04

@2wild - feels like it goes XD every day... ;)