Newriver Reit Share Discussion Threads

[gswredland] 15/9/2018 11:01

Amazing dividend
Looking at these closely

[1pvh] 14/9/2018 09:04

Been in and out of these for years selling some at 360ish a couple of years back. Well overvalued then.Bought a decent chunk of them this morning. The country will have to be on its knees for these not to be a good buy at this level. 8.8% yield spread over a multitude of towns / cities varied retailers and a very experienced management team.Shares may drop a bit further for a while, I hope they do!! but the divvi will more than make up for it.

[antho1] 13/9/2018 20:11

Lots of negatives around at the present time. Brexit uncertainty must be having an impact on a company that relies exclusively on the UK economy remaining healthy. Talk of recession if no deal brexit actually occurs doesn't help. Investors are cautious. On the positive side interest rates are forecast to remain low for years so the yield on NRR is exceptional as long as it continues. I suspect nothing will happen on the positive side to the share price until brexit is finalised (hopefully positively) and we get the half year results on 21st November. This is not really a share for short termism but if the dividends are maintained then it is still a good long terms hold. In 10 years time the share price will be higher and in the meantime the income is excellent.

[chucko1] 13/9/2018 16:41

Woodford is a key worry. He sold PFG as I previously mentioned, but it’s worth reflecting that he bought into PFG through thick and thin (famously) on several occasions, so I see his current ownership of NRR as tenuous at best. He appears to be down to the coating of paint nearest the metal.

Therefore, prepare to hold on tight! I am.

[spectoacc] 13/9/2018 16:26

Nothing saying it can't go to zero - I hold, so don't expect it to, but empty rates & debt, and no more money from Woodford..

[tim1478] 13/9/2018 16:16

I agree. In June I said that if 264 gave way then there would (probably) be a big drop. I think we will have to wait until a statement - could be as late as November. If it is positive price will rebound but any doubts in strategy or management
of debt could be very scary. I am holding.

[mrtenpercent] 13/9/2018 15:53

NRR now yielding 8.5% if the income continues to flow. No chance of another placing for the foreseeable future so the income depends on the current estate plus any churn they can manage. I agree the chart is horrible. Next support around 237 but that goes back to 2014 and I'm never confident that support levels work after a long interval. Obviously NRR isn't going to zero, so presumably there will be a recovery in the share price somewhere. But I have no idea where that support might be. Any suggestions?

[fenners66] 13/9/2018 15:16

15 more Lloyds branches to close - 15 more properties on the market.

Noticed a headline yesterday but did not read it - that 11,000 shops have closed.

[chucko1] 13/9/2018 13:53

Yes, chart is bad. Value is great, so I own whatever! But stopped thinking about adding more - possibly more woes to come, and Woodford’s issues are not likely to go away. He lowered his holding of PFG from 25% to 23% as people exit his funds and NRR is hardly immune from this possible liquidation. All in all, better entry point quite possible, but this share is soooooooooo valuable!! (but increasingly short term risky).

[spectoacc] 13/9/2018 13:51

Certainly a falling knife.

[hpcg] 13/9/2018 13:43

I'm out. More fright from the JLP numbers no doubt. Partly this has hit my nominal stop loss of 1 year's dividends, but also clearly it will be possibly to buy in cheaper at a later date. Chart remains horrific.

[mrtenpercent] 06/9/2018 20:07

Update - the short interest is more than I thought, its 9.28% :-

GB00BD7XPJ64 NEWRIVER REIT PLC 28340629.3 305385624.95 9.28%



Thanks to poster Mount Teide on the CAML thread for putting me on to this source.

[minerve] 05/9/2018 16:31

"Main takeaways..selling down Lloyds and increasing exposure
to UK house builders..as the later offer more ..compelling value."

I am surprised it has taken him a while to see that one. I saw that 18 months ago. That is why I never bought into Lloyds when you could get 8% yield on some of the housebuilders.

[essentialinvestor] 05/9/2018 15:14

Well speed, would think the man must be worth in the 10's of millions,
that's probably an underestimation. So he's set up for life, probably multiple
lifetimes. I'm very shocked at what's occured, and it takes a bit to shock me
these days.

[spectoacc] 05/9/2018 15:11

I'll buy into his funds when I see the "The man who cannot make money" article ;)

[speedsgh] 05/9/2018 15:08

EI - re Woodford. Oh how the mighty fall... or should that be fail? ;-)

[essentialinvestor] 05/9/2018 13:14

For anyone following Mr Woodford, his latest update was
out yesterday. Main takeaways..selling down Lloyds and increasing exposure
to UK house builders..as the later offer more ..compelling value.

He appears belatedly more circumspect on Capita,
having previously found the CPI valuation compelling!.

I came across an article on Neil from 2015 'The man who cannot stop making money'.

[essentialinvestor] 05/9/2018 11:44

It was the market that effectively forced a reconsideration
by selling down the value of their equity. And that view was on the money.

The HMSO BOD then authorised the current share buy back,
you wonder what value creating ideas they will concieve of next.

[chucko1] 05/9/2018 11:35

The near purchase by HMSO of INTU (was it near, in fact?) does raise questions. Odey, for one, loathe INTU. They are short 1.84% of the stock having increased the short in July of this year. My recollection is that they have been short since over 300p.

[essentialinvestor] 05/9/2018 11:21

HMSO is only 20 pence from the pre Klepierre bid lows.
At least HMSO's novel idea of enhancing shareholder value by bidding for Intu
never came to fruition.

[hpcg] 05/9/2018 10:59

The market has look at Intu, hence the share price trajectory. Easily the worst placed IMO.

[essentialinvestor] 05/9/2018 10:53

Has anyone had a look at Intu, very ugly.

[essentialinvestor] 04/9/2018 15:44

I can just about understand why BLND authorized their buy back,
large discount to NAV, LTV around 26%, paying out a fat dividend
so a saving on less shares in issue. The HMSO buy back however, looks unwise,
particularly given their stated aim of reducing gearing.

[spectoacc] 04/9/2018 15:35

"I still think that the most risky properties are the medium-sized sheds in second-rate locations, mostly edge-of-town. There are very few new operators coming through to occupy the space when they fall vacant. And the vacancy costs for landlords are breathtaking. Doesn't apply to NRR much though."

Agreed - see my post 603 example above.

Otherwise - fair points about there still being units taken and rents uplifted, but remember all of this is without a recession and with record high employment.

Interesting BLND/LAND ramp in the Sunday Times at the weekend, saying basically the discounts price in more than enough downside risk. Not sure I'd agree but I do think NRR already prices in a lot (notwithstanding the lean towards pubs - take a look at the state of MARS's share price for eg).