Newriver Reit Share Discussion Threads

[spin doctor] 04/4/2022 12:41

I'm finally into these having watched for a good while.
Derisking nicely. Attractive and probably growing dividends.
Feels like margin of safety.
Probable material rerating next 3-6 months IMV.

[nickrl] 01/4/2022 09:05

chucko for sure some other propcos have been more positive about retail recently such that i feel we are at least on an even keel with valuations here now. The discounters ought to come into there own given the cost of living headwinds so NRR should at least be able to hold its own from here.

[chucko1] 01/4/2022 08:31

So the Templars Square sale completed for the previously declared £38.8mn.

Worth reflecting that one or two, even on this board, considered that the Dec 22nd statement was not entirely open about the likelihood of receiving this full amount. Less shouty people were rather more sanguine that this was a normal state of affairs (to retain some portion in escrow etc.). And so it has come to pass, in this case at least.

The sale price was at the time 4.9% above its previous valuation, and since that time, there has been a moderate firming of a number of retail asset indices (outside of retail warehouse).

Some previous concerns about further downward revaluations might need to be considerably tempered. Even if the portfolio holds a steady value from here, we are looking at a discount of around 35% although I think the yield of 8%+ is more important (by far) and the share price will be pulled up as the market senses that this is likely to increase, if anything.

That said, the cost of living squeeze may well frustrate this, although NRR's claim to focus on essential retail could prove a mitigation.

[panshanger1] 23/2/2022 09:27

Not many good anchors left now department store sector has been decimated

[marksp2011] 23/2/2022 07:40

I dont know the site
but what I can see clearly is that the 1960s style shopping centres without a good anchor tenant(s) probably need to be bulldozed.

[bondholder] 23/2/2022 05:50

Hammerson sale price of Leeds shopping assets has dire implications for valuations. Cost around 300m selling for 120m.

[cwa1] 21/2/2022 13:02

And again:-

[cwa1] 11/2/2022 13:26

Solid director show of confidence:-

[nickrl] 09/2/2022 18:13

Huge a big chuck of H1 EPS was due to Hawthorn exclude that and EPS were c2.5p which would have supported a divi of 2p not the 4.1p paid out. So given they are still selling assets, OK some at a good profit, that will continue to impact NRI. So FY income will maybe make 4.5p from retail plus another 2.5p more from lower interest cost decrease so 8p is my forecast but with Hawthorn will be 10.5p this year so final divi of around 4p as well net 8p at 80% UFFO. However, in FY23 without Hawthorn i reckon they will only be able to support 6-7p divi. Still a good yield

[hugepants] 06/2/2022 23:09

I don't think Friday's 7.5% drop anything to do specifically with shopping centres. HMSO was only down 0.5%.

[indalo] 04/2/2022 23:30

Yes it’s interest rates I expect. Flip side is inflation, and rents should rise with inflation, especially affordable rents. NRR’s rent psf was 1% higher Q on Q. I’ve parked quite a lot of cash here lately because I feel that the yield is highly sustainable at ~9%, even with a debt rates a percent or two higher, and I’m more concerned about inflation’s impact on cash than NRR’s prospects of delivering a 10% total accounting return. That return would be ~13p (based on NAV) of which 10p should be EPS and a little positive NAV. That seems supportable by the strong yields but also recent disposals all ahead of book value. With LTV now reset and stable, and evident liquidity in the portfolio I think this will drift toward NAV as investors search for yield to protect their cash. I also see NAV increasing from 131p as we see selective recovery from the carnage of the last two years. All IMHO etc.

[gbjbaanb] 04/2/2022 18:49

The market overreacts. When people have less discretionary spending, they cut back on stuff like Netflix and holidays. That leaves them unhappy and so they cheer themselves up with less expensive activities such as going to the pub, or doing a little bit of shopping (but still some shopping,
they have to have something to show for a day out) filled by long chats in the coffee shops or restaurants.

So i reckon it's more to do with the interest rates, lots of debt (ie property) means much greater repayments. Chances are the market has now priced in another rate rise or two.

[marksp2011] 04/2/2022 18:27

I dont think the issue is about cost of living
Propert companies raise debt. That debt will be at 4-5% by year end if BoE Base is 2.5%

[nickrl] 04/2/2022 17:46

mindthetrash yesterday pub goers weren't aware their fuel bill has gone up 50% or their mortgage payment increased. Market anticipates problems ahead although im with you as not being as pessimistic but discretionary spend will come under some pressure. I'd say NRR were a bit more protected than others having many basic providers amongst their tenants rather than hospitality.

Personally i can see energy cost could rapidly unwind if western govts dial back there rhetoric over net zero. The goal needs to be maintained but there needs to be realism that fossil fuels are a key enabler of achieving that goal. I know that seems counterintuitive but extraction and processing the materials to make windmills or solar cells can't be done with energy input and certainly not just electricity currently. Also busted economies won't be able to progress the transition either.

[mindthestash] 04/2/2022 16:43

AEW and |EPIC both down 2.74% and 1.62%; looks like a bit of a bad day from property; my guess is the cost of living squeeze is interpreted at less discretionary spend which will eventually hit retail footfall and then rents.
I'm not so pessimistic
not the same sector but i was out with Mrs Mindthestash yesterday and the lunchtime pub was packed with diners - a large scale conventional 'carvery plus' operation and not a single table free by 1pm. Hows that for 3rd of Feb. Some folks are doin' fine.

[marksp2011] 04/2/2022 14:07

The volumes dont match the price action
There is either a trade that we can't see yet or others are buying in what they sold yesterday.

the other aside is that rising interest rates will impact those who borrow to buy property so....... you would expect a margin squeeze if there isn't matching growth in rental billing

[nickrl] 04/2/2022 14:04

Suspect with energy price hike plus interest rate rise means some people view retail won't thrive as much perhaps having an impact.

[lord gnome] 04/2/2022 13:51

No idea. Looks like someone is keen to get out at any price and will dump stock until it has gone. Not enough to be one of the bigger institutions on the share register.

[tag57] 04/2/2022 13:34

What triggered the sell off today?

[lord gnome] 04/2/2022 12:54

Up like a rocket and down like its stick. Ignore my last post.

[lord gnome] 03/2/2022 16:20

Good volume today. Well above average with some chunky trades going through the market. Pity we couldn't hold a quid, but good to see another tick up. This has the feel of sellers being cleared before we make further real progress.

[gbjbaanb] 01/2/2022 00:41

Sometimes a big share is just s good as a trust. I used to hold a trust of miners, then realised it was less diversified than bhp billiton but came with a whopping management fee. So swapped then it. In general ITs are the way to go, but I'd hold very big ones rather than a trust that only holds big chunks of the same.

[zac0_4] 31/1/2022 22:04

mark - down to my last 3 individual shares now - L&G, BP & Shell. Long term holdings and BP & Shell will be sold once they recover to a more acceptable level in my eyes.

As I say I sold NRR a couple of years ago, along with TW and some others. Dividends now come from 4 trusts - HFEL, HHI, MRCH & EAT. About 35% of my portfolio is invested for income with the balance held mainly in funds for growth - Fundsmith, Rathbone Global Opps, Blue Whale equity, Vanguard Global All cap index and L&G International Index (plus a few others)

Overall I've seen much better total returns from my funds but there's something comforting about receiving dividends even if the total return seems to lag.

I simply buy and hold. Most of my investments I've held for many years. The one thing I would say is that the harder I try to make money the less I make!!

With that in mind I now use a Terry Smith analogy, I buy good funds, I try not to overpay, then I do nothing!

Good luck with your investing.

[marksp2011] 31/1/2022 19:22

@zac

i run my own pension
With the exception of Fundsmith Equity, it is all ITs. The only way to go IMHO.

I do have a decent sized share trading pot that shrinks every year as I put more into ITs and VWRL. I bought a lot of NRR and am in good profit,


I buy 10x £4k holdings each year. £40k is my fun pot with which I demonstrate my brilliant stock picking skills.

I achieve the same results most years with my 10 picks - marginally worse than putting the £40k in a global index tracker.

[zac0_4] 30/1/2022 16:01

marksp2011 - “Many will have averaged down. Being honest that was the only trade as the share price was tanking before Covid”

It wasn’t the only trade for me! I’d held this for years. Finally came to my senses in March 2020 and sold out (at a considerable loss!!!!) for around 80p ps. Moved the funds into MRCH and have managed to recoup some of my losses on the back of good share price growth and a sustainable growing dividend.

Almost managed to extricate myself from single shares now (too much risk) and use investment trusts for dividend income and investment funds (accumulation versions) for total return.

NRR was an expensive lesson for me. Good luck in your investments.