Newriver Reit Share Discussion Threads

[marksp2011] 23/1/2022 15:41

Hugepants

The question isnt whether the deals they did in Q3 were positive. The question is whether portfolio value has stopped falling. We did really well on some proportion of 23% of our portfolio - what happened to the other 77% ?

[jt58] 22/1/2022 11:38

I would have put those comments under leasing activities as he gave in the heading. They did comment on the £s per ft2 increase.

[hugepants] 21/1/2022 22:18

He did didn't he?

"..Q3 long term deals agreed on terms 8% ahead of valuers' ERV with Core Shopping Centre deals on terms 20% ahead of ERV; long term leases agreed in FY22 to date on average 10% ahead of ERV.."


AEWU updated yesterday for Q4. fyi Retail Parks were valued +6.73% over the quarter (they don't have any shopping centres). Retail parks were 23% of the NRR portfolio at the interims and rising as they sell off the non core shopping centres.

[jt58] 20/1/2022 17:40

You would have thought that if his operational metrics have been so strong he would be happy to share them.

[marksp2011] 20/1/2022 13:15

It is very carefully worded and is extraordinarily non-committal e.g.

"which offers further support for a stabilisation in asset values" does not say that asset values have stabilised so it is reasonable to infer that the asset values are still falling. (If he could prove asset values were increasing, it would have been line 1 on the announcement)

They need rising values and rising income. here is an 8% yield and here is a 13% capital loss defies sensible spin although Lockhart has tried in the past.

[cwa1] 20/1/2022 07:29

Positive sounding(IMO) third quarter update:-



NewRiver is today providing an update in respect of its third quarter ended 31 December 2021.


·
Positive operational performance supported by improving consumer backdrop, elevated leasing activity and increasing rent collection rates


·
Retail park investment market maintains growth trajectory and shopping centres seeing improved demand;
disposals completed in Q3 ahead of book values


·
Strengthened balance sheet position and operational performance recognised by Fitch Ratings through recently affirmed Investment Grade credit ratings


 



Allan Lockhart, Chief Executive, commented

: "We have continued to deliver strong operational metrics in the third quarter, supported by a backdrop of increasing consumer spend on essential items over the Christmas period. Despite concerns of Omicron restrictions, our rent collection and leasing activity remained robust. Disposals during the quarter were aligned with our reshaping objectives and completed at strong prices which demonstrated the significant value generated by our asset management and Regeneration activity. As expected, liquidity continues to improve across the retail investment market which offers further support for a stabilisation in asset values. The affirmation of our Investment Grade Credit Rating demonstrates the progress we have made this year in strengthening our balance sheet and positioning the Company to deliver our 10% total accounting return target."

[mindthestash] 15/1/2022 10:39

I can see this going to 130ish on an 8p an divi.

my confidence in management is dented by the spin and previous growth strategy from an unstable base.

I'd like to see evidence in the numbers of managing up in terms of rents and reductions in overheads after the pub sale which must have been management intensive cf retail. Theres room for 8p to go up a bit.

Longer term value increases (and who knows special divis) will depend on how the planning battles go on the JV redevelopment sites and the resi market they intend to introduce there to replace retail. Basically there could be more divi and value byond 130 so im looking at a longer term hold hopefully

[marksp2011] 15/1/2022 09:07

Many will have averaged down. Being honest that was the only trade as the share price was tanking before covidI don't normally share holding sizes but the divi could have paid for a holiday for me and her in Maldives.However......this is really a minnow in a tricky sector and it is not a sensible idea to be over exposed.I don't really trust the management. They talk a lot but don't execute. The share price had virtually halved before anyone had heard of Covid and they were still talking a good gameI held a lot of DEC for a while. Great yield a vigorous spin machine but......it could cease to be very easily. Like NRR 10% yields aren't free.Interesting lesson for me. Is that Diageo with its 2% yield has a much higher total return than nrr, dec aviva lgen shell BP etc. I don't chase divis any more my income portfolio is from investment trusts. I am now in a quandary. I am selling these in slices but......when to start?

[lord gnome] 15/1/2022 08:43

As you say, opportunities like this are very rare. Finding them and having the cash and courage to back your research and invest is key.I have just persuaded my investment club to buy a few. It got through by one vote with a good few members voting against touching a retail property REIT. It look as though we are still the early majority.

[lord gnome] 15/1/2022 08:39

Well done chucko1. Great post. That mirrors my own thought exactly even if I couldn't put them in a post as clearly as you.Glad to see that I am not the only one sitting on stock purchased in the 180s. Memo to self: stop loss limits can be handy sometimes.I am now in profit overall however, thanks to a more than six-fold increase in my holdings when the shares were on the floor.

[marksp2011] 14/1/2022 22:19

Don't get carried away yet

[danny500] 14/1/2022 15:59

This was always going to turnaround eventually just like the rest of the sector, just a matter of timing!

Never look a gift horse in the mouth, fenners must be gutted, he couldn't see it.

[mindthestash] 14/1/2022 15:49

Nice to see the turnaround in price fueled by the dividend commitment as %of UFFO.

I was minded to sell last summer but it was helpful to see the different views here. Eventually management strategy change to manage the portfolio and stop mad ideas like expand floorspace by 33%.
sentmient has definitely changed.
"never underestimate the power of sentiment"- (said chuck 2021). He was right.
Thanks folks.

[lord gnome] 14/1/2022 12:52

Divi now in my ii account- and already reinvested

[sphere25] 14/1/2022 11:34

Got my SUP dividend, not my NRR yet. Both supposed to be paid today so did the NRR dividend get lost in the post or did the dog eat it?

Still, two dividends in one day will be a world record for me. You could almost get used to that.

Hopefully not just yet though! Ha

Still, these dividend and value plays are performing pretty well on the whole. Looking further out, unsure how the FED reigns in all the stimulus and then unwinds its balance sheet without causing chaos everywhere in the markets...

But we will cross that bridge when we come to it.

All imo
DYOR

[lord gnome] 14/1/2022 10:57

Moving up again. Soon be through £1.

[cwa1] 14/1/2022 08:10

That was an exceptionally tasty dividend that just fleshed out the account. Nice

[chucko1] 13/1/2022 11:18

That's Artificial Intelligence for you.

[gbjbaanb] 13/1/2022 11:10

Dividend paid tomorrow, for me that's anice chunk of cash.

I was looking at simplywall.st analysis of NRR today, they think its fair value is £2.43 - maybe they're a bit wrong and treating this REIT like a normal share, but still... made me happy for a moment :)

[janekane] 10/1/2022 13:54

Nice rise as predicted

[lord gnome] 10/1/2022 11:07

No - it was just a reference back to your post 3889. Delete the word 'Daily'.

[janekane] 10/1/2022 09:09

Gnome10 Jan '22 - 08:16 - 3890 of 3890
0 2 0
The Daily Mail speaks and the markets tremble - not.



Has the daily mail wrote an article about NRR as well today