Nationwide Accident Repair Svc Share Discussion Threads

[value viper] 09/10/2009 10:24

wonder whether this is the type of thing that the likes of kwikfit might be interested in ? maybe one of the insurance co's might like it as a bolt on ? NRI
now ex divi, but cash in the bank and a fwd pe of 8ish, yielding 6.25%. chart not too clever but bit of value here perhaps. where are the director buys ?? Hhm

[investinggarden] 29/9/2009 10:24

Hold recommendation from GCI

[topvest] 07/8/2009 07:48

Solid company here with a market leading position in the UK. 5% yield for a growth company with no debt isn't bad, albeit they have a pension deficit.

[empirestate] 31/7/2009 23:10

looks like a positive break out on the chart after those couple of half mill purchases

[taylor20] 05/6/2009 11:00

11.4p EPS around £5m PAT, takes the ratio up to 8.4 - 10

[value viper] 05/6/2009 10:57

good stuff taylor - ta for this

[wjccghcc] 05/6/2009 10:56

16.4mm is about half the mkt cap and would change them from a net cash position of 7mm to net debt of 9.4mm (tho of course it's not a debt as such unless you wind up the company).

They have an agreement with the trustees to contribute 2.5mm + RPI annually for the next 7 years. Not a company breaker given their good cashflow but likely to limit any dividend increases to single digit %.

I see Arbuthnot have reduced their forecasts by about 15% to 11.4p after yesterday's warning.

[taylor20] 05/6/2009 10:54

Alternatively you could treat the pension as extra debt, i.e.

Enterprise Value: £33m (mcap) - £7m (cash) + £16m (deficit) = £42

Profit: £7m
EV/Pft: 6

[taylor20] 05/6/2009 10:52

They are putting £2.5m into the pension every year for the next 7 years.

So if you knock £2.5m of the Profit, use that as your basis for PE & forward PE. With the added benefit that in 7 years time (or less) they will be in surplus.

Figures I posted on JCR thread:

NARS M.Cap £33m
Cash.......£ 7m
PAT........£ 7m
Pension/yr.£ 2.5m

So EV........£26m
Retained Pft.£ 4.5m
EV/Pft.......5.8
Yield........6.4%

[value viper] 05/6/2009 10:43

thought so, thanks, is this a real material concern ? market is at similar level now to then so guessing any top up payments will remain at forecasted levels to then. any clues on their poa to deal with it?
they dont talk about this much do they ? is that good management ?!

[wjccghcc] 05/6/2009 10:38

VV, yes, they had a pension deficit of 16.4mm as at Dec 08.

[donaceace] 05/6/2009 09:44

slowly slowly :-


later

[value viper] 05/6/2009 09:42

well, looks like a seller has done ?! - 8 big prints or are they buys ??!!
either way, stock has clicked up.

[value viper] 04/6/2009 21:23

has the co a defined benefit pension scheme funding issue of sorts ? recall something like this - think it may be clouding things cause the pe and cash on the books in isolation make it look pretty cheap to me.

[topvest] 04/6/2009 21:11

Yes, looks a bit of an over-reaction because of lower gross margins in a quarter. Steady company with good prospects.

[anusol] 04/6/2009 14:47

Nice - new boy Chris Mills has a fabulous trakc record in failing organisations.... so we await the receiveers then!

Actually, thinking this might be a nice opportunity for topping up whilst the bad news is out. Steady business this car repair stuff - so many muppets on the road!

[dovegang] 02/6/2009 11:52

Anyone know why the share price drop today on this one??

[harrogate] 17/5/2009 15:29

I assume that you work / did work for NARS. I don't hold this share but do hold a lot of JCR the nearest competitor so am interested in your comments. I would be careful what you say on a BB like this though. Were the fixed price contracts taken on because of the insurance work that was lost 2 years or so back I think from RBS?

[value viper] 21/4/2009 11:35

bit of nibbling here

[anusol] 08/4/2009 11:05

someone spends £10k and the shares go up 2%!

Well, the oil price issue is now out of the way, and unlikely to reappear anytime soon. Recession doesnt make too much difference to accident rate, but will we all be driving around in dented old wrecks not bothering to fix em?

Does anyone have a feel for the worst case scenario for the pension shortfall? Given the low share price yet turnover and profit all in lin with plan, then it can only be the pension problem factored in thats keeping this low now.

[topvest] 06/2/2009 17:56

I suspect this company has had a busy week, given all the snow.