Nationwide Accident Repair Svc Share Discussion Threads

[aleman] 09/4/2013 10:33

The pension fund is 1/3rd UK equities and 1/3rd foreign equities so the deficit has possibly shrunk by another £2-3m since the year end thanks to rising stockmarkets and falling £. There is still £5m+ cash on the balance sheet and that would have risen if it were not for a significant adverse movement in the balance of payables and receivables which absorbed £4m in what is hopefully a bit of a one-off. The next year could be much better for cash and even see a small increase in the dividend, although I only expect it to be held again, realistically. The underlying cash generation remains fairly steady at a healthy level despite difficult market conditions and there are signs the move away from insurance work to the fleet and retail sector is benefitting the company such that the outlook could be improving. The company's eps was in line with expectations and is forecast to rise a touch and I'm expecting a further increase a year ahead when we get a fresh forecast. I appreciate the restated balance sheet looks weak but another year of strong underlying cashflows, shrinking pension deficit and earnings of over 10p, and rising, could put that to bed.

There could be further difficult structural adjustments to come but the strong underlying cashflows should see them through ok. It's not the company's fault the market offers the shares at a bargain price but I'm very happy to take advantage. I have doubled up while there are cheap shares about with a very chunky yield available.

[masurenguy] 09/4/2013 10:07

Good post Hastings.

Diverse Income Trust, run by Gervais Williams who I rate, increased their shareholding by around 50% to just under 5% in December at circa 59p. I also invested here at just above 60p around that time too. As you say, the pension issue has been there all the time but should not have any significant impact in the short term. It is not like a bank loan that might be called in or scheduled for repayment at anytime.

I can see NARS being an acquisition target if the price remains under 70p but in the meantime I'm happy
to collect my year end dividend of 5.9% and a subsequent annual dividend of 9.0%

[harrogate] 09/4/2013 09:06

Can I just say I think you are beign overly negative. I don't hold these shares but know the market very well and I think the management here are doing as well as they could do in the circumstances. The market has undergone fundamental change in the last 6 years and they are having to deal with that. If you bought these shares you knew about the pension deficit and they can't make that go away either. What they are rated at is not down to the company but the market. If you believe the market is wrong buy..if you think the market is right then sell and move on

[bend1pa] 26/3/2013 16:22

"And what are your views on us PI muppets who haven't sold out below 60p?"

If you mean you still hold hang in there and enjoy the div. More people driving recklessly and being impatient. Prolonged snowy winter. Can't be bad for NARS

[spob] 27/2/2013 21:15

I think its a good steady business selling cheap

the kind of business i'd be very happy to own outright

[cjohn] 25/2/2013 13:35

Well, with the recession, people are putting off making smaller insurance claims for their cars: they have to pay an excess. So there's a cyclical element here.

And as a matter of face accident - and even more so serious injury and mortality rates - are in long-term decline.

Should add, I have a modest holding here. Any serious improvement in trading and they'll look under-valued.

[spob] 21/2/2013 17:47

NARS is an interesting play on terrible weather and appalling standards of driving

I don't foresee a shortage of either going forward

[spob] 20/2/2013 16:06

Another thing i like here, is the company hasn't created many new shares in the last 6 or 7 years since float

Far too many companies steal from their shareholders by stealthily diluting away their shareholdings.


Num of Shares(m) last 7 years 44.9 43.2 43.2 43.2 43.2 43.2 43.2

[spob] 20/2/2013 15:11

I guess people just got sucked into the float back in 2006 at an over inflated price.

[spob] 20/2/2013 14:10

Any background info why these have crashed from 190p ?

Was it just post float manipulation / hype ?

Can't see any major profit or revenue collapse in that period


I acknowledge the pension deficit but that liability will be spread over many years and is backed up by a solid non cyclical business.

Regardless i've bought some for my AIM portfolio today and will buy more later on.

70.5p

[cjohn] 20/2/2013 12:30

The pension deficit will have come down markedly since the financial year end, with the move in gilts since then.

[bookbroker] 20/2/2013 12:27

Surprised you don't see more yield chasers getting into this one, it's about as secure as you have, good old solid cash flow with a bit of growth chucked in and the pension issues somewhat mitigated!.

[finkie] 19/2/2013 09:57

your cool obviously!

[anusol] 15/2/2013 15:20

And what are your views on us PI muppets who haven't sold out below 60p?

[bend1pa] 15/2/2013 13:46

I expect all those PI muppets who were happy to sell out at under 60p over the past several months must be kicking themselves a bit by now I never understood it as at the very least you had an 8%+ yield which was likely to be maintained. I still don't like the look of the pension deficit size for this company, but according to the recent statement it appears to be going in the right direction.

[muffinhead] 14/2/2013 06:14

Bank of England is digging final salary pension funds out of the proverbial hole by promising more inflation



The gilt market is responding


Yield curve is responding and annuities follow

[muffinhead] 12/2/2013 13:14

all going to plan





'We are upgrading the Isa limit to £11,520 next year, while also consulting over allowing SME equity markets, such as AIM, to be included in Isas. This will encourage and help UK small business grow.'

[anusol] 12/2/2013 11:22

We aren't on the radar at the moment - too much going on elsewhere today.
What we need is a couple of nice write-ups in the press, if not tomorrow, then over the weekend.

[this_is_me] 12/2/2013 10:56

I wasn't aware that there were such funds. I have made more than half my money on AIM shares over the years, some of them are very solid companies.

[anusol] 12/2/2013 10:28

Yeah, but there are several managed IHT investment funds that might want to ensure they hold some NARS, especially with 8% a year return. I doubt many individuals would hold AIM shares just to avoid IHT as it's very risky without an investment fund to diversify the risk for you. 2 years is all you have to hold it for before completely IHT free - unlike gifts which take 7 years!

[this_is_me] 12/2/2013 09:56

I am hopeing that IHT will not be relevant to Me for some time yet! I have bought a small stake this morning after watching them for a while. Definately undervalued, people will continue to prang cars so there will always be business and the management seem to be able to adapt well to circumstances ant opportunities.

[anusol] 12/2/2013 09:38

Bit of a bargain when you also consider that this is a fairly stable, income generating AIM share, such that it is exempt from Inheritance tax.... a good one to hold (in a mixed portfolio) if you are try to avoid Gideon's IHT cap for the next 6 years!

[aleman] 12/2/2013 08:34

So, trading and pension fears seem to have been overdone a little. I wouldn't expect fireworks but it would be nice if the trading range could move to 70-80p from the 60-70p of recent months. The yield would still be 7-8%. We could then hope to target 80-90p (6-7% yield) if the results showed diversification going well and gave a stable outlook.