Nationwide Accident Repair Svc Share Discussion Threads

[aleman] 06/8/2013 12:06

Westhouse new forecast.

BUY
Year Ptp Eps Dps
2013 3.00 5.30 2.70
2014 4.40 7.50 3.80

[aleman] 05/8/2013 14:35

Hold on. Half the wintery weather was in October to December. (We had two lots of snow in October, one in November and two in December, from memory, making it the earliest sustained wintery weather I have experienced.) The part of winter in NARS' H1 was colder than average but it was drier and recent years results for NARS and JCR have tended to vary with rainfall. Of the 6 months in H1, January, March and May could be construed as roughly average, while February was dry and April and June were very dry. I reckon H1 would have had fewer accidents than normal if judged by rainfall and I suspect it's nailed on that July was below normal as well. I think it would have been hard to put out a very positive statement under the circumstances. What I find odd is that they haven't mentioned the weather when many boards would have opted to use that as an excuse.



I do sympathise with the other point of your statement, though. It would have been nice to see some more progress last year when it was very wet.

[bend1pa] 05/8/2013 14:13

Very poor. That's 3 profit warnings over the past 5 years and will be 5 years of decliniing revenues and profits. In 2011 they shut down 8 sites claiming that was a necessary cost-saving strategy which would save the group £1.9m pa. Did it make any difference in the end? No. And they are still bleating on about cost-savings. There is a limit to that, and unless they can improve their revenues and margins, things are only going to get steadily worse. We've had the second most prolonged winter and spring on record which should have benefitted NARS, so if business couldn't improve during that spell, there is something fundamentally adrift with NARS rather than blaming the economy.

[topvest] 05/8/2013 13:10

Yes, disappointing. Not one to sell down here imho. I will hold for better days. This is a reasonably solid business and so I would hope that things will look better in a couple of years, hopefully a lot better!

[masurenguy] 05/8/2013 12:29

Very fortunately sold my stake here @68.5p early in July. Could be tempted back in if it falls back to 50p since the reduced dividend should still yield around 5% at that level.

[value viper] 05/8/2013 11:37

try and tell me the mkt didnt know this was coming !
most disappointing frankly and the stock's biggest attraction (dividend) now being chopped
over 80% held by institutions , they will struggle to get out of any as is massively illiquid : maybe they can sell to each other

agree aleman, what to do ? and could be on 10 times here possibly, hardly cheap

the divi chop is a kick in the balls and they know it

poss lining up for Mills and co to take it private.....maybe that's a bit cynical

one for the ISA today ?!? not for me right now I don't think

[aleman] 05/8/2013 09:13

There seems to be a bit of buying at 60p. Don't know what to make of the update. Is it really that bad? I had wondered if the very dry weather of Q2 would drag things down a touch so I shouldn't be surprised too much. Profitability is disappointing and cashflow a bit weaker in line with that. That looks to put EPS in the area of 6-7p for the year but we then have an acquisition which will add to earnings after some exceptional costs. I'd guess the new forecasts for will be something like EPS of 5.5p (pre-exceptional) and then 7.5p. I'd guess the new dividend will be maybe 2.5p then 3p, The lower earnings and dividend might be countered slightly by hopes of modest growth from there. That would make the shares look ok at around 50-60p, I suppose. I don't know whether to sell, hold or buy more.

It strikes me they've been looking for an excuse to rebase the dividend and the very dry weather in Q2 has brought it. The question is whether that and the acquisition will improve growth prospects from here.

[anusol] 05/8/2013 08:52

nope - holding up better than I expected.

[dewtrader] 05/8/2013 07:55

Looks like it will fall sharp sub 55p?

[anusol] 05/8/2013 07:44

Yep. Not good news..... Especially the divi reduction.

[dewtrader] 29/7/2013 22:35

Weather condition mean fewer accidents

QPP has many prob of its own

[steamy001] 29/7/2013 22:14

Quindell PLC Management has made little secret of its desire to acquire a chain of garages in order to gain further efficiencies in the repairs process,maybe NARS is a takeover target?

[gutterhead] 15/7/2013 21:38

Steamy, why?

[steamy001] 12/7/2013 11:38

maybe QPP may look to takeover NAR?

[bend1pa] 09/6/2013 12:24

They won't need to slash the div yet unless their business drops again sharply or they suffer another significant deterioration in cashflow. But there has been a general downtrend in their business over the past 5 years which they haven't been able to reverse.

[muffinhead] 08/6/2013 19:55

rolling over

.

[muffinhead] 08/6/2013 19:32

Hedges are already in place after final dividend and the downside potential is significant for those in control of an illiquid share.

The cherry on the pie will be when the dividend is slashed

[bend1pa] 07/6/2013 13:15

PIs panicking out yet again. Sub 60 on the way and time then for another top up.

[this_is_me] 14/5/2013 09:14

Good analysis, yesterdays jump should be the start of the overdue re-rating.

[bend1pa] 14/5/2013 02:01

Sizable jump in share price to 78p today, and some notable buying of late. Since last June until January there was scarcely a buyer to be seen in NARS shares with many PIs panicking out below 60p. But since Jan, the buyers have been slowly returning although there have still been plenty of days where sellers have dominated. People bang on about the pension deficit here as though NARS is unique to this problem. But they have had a serious deficit for years like so many other companies. It didn't seem to have an adverse affect on the share price until 2 years ago,when their trading started to suffer. However eps seems to have stabilised so why the div cut fears? A definite hold for me at this stage.