National Grid Share Discussion Threads

[utyinv] 31/5/2019 11:55

Good rise today👍

[skinny] 30/5/2019 08:31

And a fall greater than the dividend on a slightly up day!

[utyinv] 29/5/2019 18:02

Not much of a rise on the last day before ex-divi day😱

[newbank] 28/5/2019 12:57

Bounty,

The Calendar is out of date mate. You haven't put the 31.26p divi in. :)

[utyinv] 28/5/2019 10:22

I see the computer algorithms haven’t been changed. Sell at 9:30 ish then another sell off at 12:30. Wishful thinking maybe but wouldn’t it be great if Pettigrew announced something to rocket the share price and catch out all the parasites shorting this stock.

[muffinhead] 27/5/2019 13:12

Beckers2008
26 May '19 - 23:03 - 7023 of 7031
M,
Quarterly the UK business is getting smaller by NG. policy and the US business greater where the ROE is over 9%. NG. policy.
NG.is only investing in regulatory obligations as the ROE is so poor.
In 2021 the US will account for 60% of total business so your 4.3% ROE wide of the mark.

.
Appreciate your input

Combining UK (4.3%) 40% revenue and USA 60% (9%) 60% revenue, the Group ROE averages at 7.12%

Balance of debt:equity assumed in FY results, 60:40 in Uk. The ROE on debt (and there is a shedload of it) is going to be lower than 4.3% come 2021

American regulators will scratch their heads when reviewing NG. and the ROE level in the UK. They have the same political pressures.

Cashflow per share forecast set to reduce

[veryniceperson] 27/5/2019 12:38

Becker. How about a Labour, SNP coalition. Just as bad and Scottish MPs running our country. Nationalisation coming our way maybe?

[newbank] 27/5/2019 12:27

Bounty,

I also note that the correlation between Gilts and NG / SSE appear to be widening. Gilts are going up whilst NG/SSE are falling. A direct result of Labour's rhetoric regarding its plans for Nationalisation. Its time Pettigrew:-

1) Listed the US business separately.

2) Commission a legal examination test on the legality of Corbyn's Marxist's intentions to Nationalise the utilities without full Compensation.
2a) To base the value on the current Assets value as it is now £ 40.5 billion may be regarded as fair, rather than the share price being destroyed after Corbyn's rhetoric.
40.5Billion / 3.4 billion shares = £11.91 / share. Debt is the price Labour would have to pay, as it was OFGEM and government policy reiterating that Utilities should accept higher gearing to keep Customer prices low.

3) Start showing where NG's decision to abandon UK highly regulated, low income businesses (like NG Gas Distn businesses which were sold), in preference to invest and concentrate on lower draconian regulatory constraints, lucrative high growth, high revenue businesses. He has had two years since the sale of the Gas Distn businesses, it's now time to see the fruits of that decision.

Ie Its time Pettigrew started earning his corn!

[newbank] 27/5/2019 12:05

Should see a rise in NG tomorrow and Wednesday for two reasons:

1) NG go ex-divi on Thursday so many institutions will want to recieve the final divi of 31.26p in August.

2) NG, in normal circumstances, after a Pro-Brexit vote where Investors want some stability, the demand for secure Blue chip utilities should rise.

HOWEVER,

I wouldn't be surprised if Labour or the media reiterate Labours intention to Nationalise Utilities to keep the price low.

I anticipate on Thursday the stock will open 31.26p lower than the close on Wednesday evening, then it will continue to fall, at least another 1% on top. So IMO drop between Weds close and Thursdays close will be 40p :(

[bountyhunter] 27/5/2019 11:50

A hung parliament is looking more and more likely the way things are going, although it does feel as though we have one already since TM's faux pas!

[beckers2008] 27/5/2019 11:13

No chance of a Labour majority government.
Next election in 2022 will show hung parliament so nationalisation threat will never materialise.

[poikka] 27/5/2019 11:05

JC and MadMcD joined at the hip, I'd say, bounty, so they both go - hopefully.

[bountyhunter] 27/5/2019 10:37

JC's days could be numbered, the big danger being a more electable replacement!
McD is probably the most dangerous from the Utility shareholders point of view.

[poikka] 27/5/2019 10:31

Labour trounced - might be a good day for equities tomorrow.

[bountyhunter] 27/5/2019 09:36

I'm invested here however it's the political uncertainty of the 'foreseable future' which is the problem holding the share price down.

[beckers2008] 27/5/2019 09:24

W,
£4.5b investment last year. £5.0b this year. No growth?
The largest amount of investment goes to the USA again. This has been the case for a number of years.
Dividend to grow by RPI for the foreseeable future with div cover of at least 1.2 times.

[wskill] 27/5/2019 08:46

Yes I was thinking the same at present the fall in revenue will only effect 50% of the present business the US side is not changed.

But still the dividend will be unable to grow until NG.can increase its presence in the US not a bad thing I would have thought.

[beckers2008] 26/5/2019 23:03

M,
Quarterly the UK business is getting smaller by NG. policy and the US business greater where the ROE is over 9%. NG. policy.
NG.is only investing in regulatory obligations as the ROE is so poor.
In 2021 the US will account for 60% of total business so your 4.3% ROE wide of the mark.

[muffinhead] 26/5/2019 21:11

National Grid... Ofgem 24/5/2019

Ofgem wants return on equity of 4.3% and lower allowed return on debt would reduce costs passed to consumers by £6bn over five years to 2026.


Set that against current double digit ROE 18.85%

PE of 10 based on lowered ROE set against current 2021 analyst forecast of 62.5p = shareprice 625p....could go lower as current dividend cover only 1.3.

Current dividend may not be covered with ROE of 4.3% in 2021


Current tangible NAV 366p

Going lower imo as 2021 comes into view
Quarterly chart


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[atlantic57] 24/5/2019 08:41

Imv Robert Peston summarises in 5 minutes the current political situation.
The BBC with an army of editors deputy editors chief reporters spend hours waffling on
And on

It seems clear here a new Tory leader makes no difference to the numbers in the commons.
Of course the hard brexiteers insist that the new leader will demand xyz and the eu will accept this.

I f they do fine.If the don’t then a general election is the likely outcome.

For utilities political uncertainty plus operational challenges at this time are not a great combination

[m100] 24/5/2019 08:10

The share price in the past few days showing yet again OFGEM are as secure as very leaky bucket...a bucket without a wall, or a base, or a handle.

[hydrogen economy] 24/5/2019 07:44

Sounds like some grounds for hope here


RNS Number : 1038A National Grid PLC 24 May 2019


Ofgem's RIIO-2 sector specific consultation update

Ofgem today published a detailed update following the RIIO-2 sector specific consultation that concluded in March. Today's publications are a step in the regulatory process for the new price control that will start in 2021, with final determinations on all key financial elements expected in November 2020.



Ofgem has published several comprehensive documents this morning which we will be reviewing in detail. Initially, we are pleased that Ofgem has refined their approach to incentives, including the option to allow bespoke Output Delivery Incentives.



On cost of equity, we recognise Ofgem has made some corrections to its calculations and continues to consult on the outperformance wedge. We remain disappointed with the proposed range, which we believe does not fairly reflect the level of risk borne by networks. In the context of the role that networks will play in enabling the transition to a more efficient and decarbonised energy system, we believe this is not in the long-term interests of consumers.



We will continue to engage constructively with Ofgem to reach an appropriate RIIO-2 outcome for the benefit of all stakeholders.

[bountyhunter] 23/5/2019 17:23

For that reason I was half expecting a rise here today but maybe TM's tottering on the edge has negated that.

[utyinv] 23/5/2019 12:51

When markets fall NG usually rallies as a safe haven. So much damage caused by Marxists