National Grid Share Discussion Threads

[skinny] 21/11/2013 07:04

Solid first half performance: National Grid on track for good full year result
· UK: delivering good incentive performance under the new RIIO price controls
· US: new rates in place; investing in enhanced capabilities to drive further improvements
· Operating profit1 1% lower2 at £1,572m, (3% lower at constant currency3 excluding the impact of timing4) reflecting the expected end of Niagara Mohawk deferral income recoveries and higher US system implementation costs
· Profit before tax1 £979m, 7% lower reflecting the temporary additional cost of pre-financing asset growth at attractive interest rates
· Earnings per share1 1% lower5 at 20.4p, (down 3% excluding the impact of timing)
· Interim dividend of 14.49p per share as announced in March 2013
· No interim scrip dividend option given high level of take-up on August dividend payment

Maintaining outlook for operating performance, asset growth and earnings
· 2013/14 capital expenditure of around £3.5bn, net of efficiency savings, expected to drive regulated asset growth of around 6%
· Overall performance in the first six months consistent with Group expectations for the full year

[tonio] 20/11/2013 17:57

I guess what's wrong with a free bb is that no-one comments when the share price is taking a hammering.
Maybe this is the problem:
National Grid is on Thursday expected to report a 6.3 per cent fall in half-year pre-tax profit to 1.1bn pounds, reflecting a new accounting standard on pension charges.

Deutsche Bank said the results would reveal a steady start to the new RIIO UK network price control regime which regulates the company's UK spending for eight years from 2013.

These little details are often left out of the rosy scenario for NG mentioned in the second paragraph. On top of the index-linked pensions black hole there is the ongoing problem that the government may change tack vis-vis NG due to public pressure or realisation belatedly that wind aint going fix our energy supply deficit going forward.

[tonio] 15/11/2013 15:04

Wow, sounds exciting - maybe the many sellers today had the same reasons.

[blobby] 15/11/2013 14:26

I've joined the shareholders list today. Looking forward to a lively discussion here?

Reasons for purchase: Safety and reliable index linked return, including a good dividend.

[yf23_1] 15/11/2013 13:17

How can a rating be neutral when its trading at 776 and the target is 860.

[mazarin] 15/11/2013 11:24

Thanks Tonio and Billy its been quite a while since I was last in this sector, having previously held Centrica, so am grateful for any 'long term holder's' insight. I believe NG is due to go ExDiv (Interim)in December, so that usually has the effect of drawing a few in. Incidentally a TP of £8.60 will do me just fine.

[billy_buffin] 15/11/2013 11:19

HSBC lowers National Grid to 'neutral' - target 860 pence

[tonio] 15/11/2013 11:10

Yes well NG has the capability for stability and yield. They have a seemingly clear agreement with the regulator and government over the next few years. But then you get the Energy and climate change committee chairman saying the other day that despite that NG costs should be looked at further to drive them down. Nothing is ever certain with governments and maybe this gives pause to investors and contributes to the downward pressure seen during the last week.

[mazarin] 15/11/2013 10:37

I put sizeable charge of NG. into my ISA battery today. I've actually been waiting for a stable 'dip' in the share price throughout this week but by the time I got to the computer and logged into my account, I'd missed the low point. Is NG.'s daily share price normally as volatile as its been this week? So I decided to wait no loner, 'threw the switch' and got 'connected' this morning regardless.

[ipw] 11/11/2013 10:46

I have interpreted NG's policy as meaning:

The total FULL ANNUAL dividend will increase by at least the annual rate of RPI inflation.

I future the interim dividend will be 35% of previous years total dividend.

Under this policy it would be difficult to set interim dividend by any other means because NG need to know the annual RPI in order to arrive at a total dividend.

[pierre oreilly] 11/11/2013 09:43

Newbank, I don't that any 'promise' implies both the interim and the final will be increased at least inline with rpi. More often than not, ime, the interim increase on such expecations is increased less, with the final increased more, so the overall divis over the year meet or exceed any 'promises'.

Also, and this, afaiia, is the case for gilts at least, rpi is being phased out/redefined and replaced/defined as something not so generous and closer to cpi.

I don't really understand such promises anyhow - I prefer divis to reflect the medium/long term performace the directors expect. Doesn't do any companty any good at all if it's divi payouts are above waht the business can easily bear. Having said that, the profits of NGC are largley governed by the regulator and, due to the nature of its business, more or less guranteed (relative to other ftse companies) so the divi expectations are very secure (relatively).

[ipw] 11/11/2013 08:42

Newbank,

Totally agree with your comments & calcs.

I was quoting from NG's final statement & surprised at their figure:

"March 2014 the interim dividend is expected to be 14.49p"

We shall have to wait & see.

[newbank] 09/11/2013 22:10

ipw,

If the interim last year was 14.49p then if RPI is approx 3.2% then I would expect the interim to be approx 14.49 x 3.2% = 14.95p.

total div for 2014 expected to be 40.8 p (2013) x 3.2% = 42.1p and if Interim is approx 14.95p then final divi in Aug expected to be 27.15p. Anything less is breaking National Grid's promise to Shareholders to increase divi's by RPI. RPI currently averaging at 3.2%

Of course, if Interim is more (or less) then the final will be less (or more) to balance-up to an increase equal to RPI.

If the 35% to 65% split is adhered to then based on the above criteria Interim divi 14.735p and Final divi 27.365p

I have never known NG to break a promise on divi payout since it was floated in 1995. It's what it prides itself on :)

[ipw] 08/11/2013 19:28

"In March 2013, the Board of National Grid agreed a new dividend policy to apply from 1 April 2013. The new policy aims to grow the ordinary dividend at least in line with the rate of RPI inflation each year for the foreseeable future.

Under this new policy, for the year ending March 2014 the interim dividend is expected to be 14.49p; thereafter it is intended that the interim dividend be 35% of the previous year's full year dividend."

The actual amount should be in 'Half year results' due to be released 21/11/13

[daveofdevon] 08/11/2013 19:01

Last year it was 14.49p so anticipating another increase probably about 15p

[neddo] 08/11/2013 18:11

jpw, how much will the divi be?

[ipw] 06/11/2013 08:07

22nd Jan 14 interim dividend paid to qualifying shareholders

[ipw] 06/11/2013 08:04

You can troll through RNS's
Or go to National Grid.com - Investors & scroll down to Events Calendar.
Its same with most Companies who have a website.

[utyinv] 05/11/2013 21:45

Usually paid mid Jan

[yam114] 05/11/2013 21:29

Thanks ipw, where did you find the info?

[ipw] 05/11/2013 16:43

21st Nov. half year results.
4th December ex. Div.

[yam114] 05/11/2013 16:39

Actual date not showing yet.

[redartbmud] 05/11/2013 09:47

yam

Click on financials at the top of the page and scroll down.

red