Naked Wines Share Discussion Threads

[alphabeta4] 18/11/2020 14:00

Any newspaper rumours on that TTLance or personal view?

[ttlance] 17/11/2020 15:29

Announcement on Thursday regarding listing on NASDAQ.......?

[bookbroker] 16/11/2020 08:13

Talk about price gouging, their prices are way above the equivalent in major retailers, may have impressive selection of wine, but you pay a high premium for that.

[strategy and luck] 15/11/2020 18:10

Whilst the restaurants have been closed during lockdowns and had limited customers during the tier system, I've heard that really expensive wines are being re-badged as 'cleanskins' and flogged off cheaply in the supermarkets. I've found a few supermarkets' 'best', 'finest' 'extra special' ranges that have drastically improved this year. I suspect at least one of them may be Penfolds Grange Hermitage, usually £300 a bottle in the finest London restaurants but less than a tenner under a supermarket badge.

[bigbigdave] 15/11/2020 08:54

Naked Wine website crashed due to unprecedented demand

[buywell3] 13/11/2020 02:12

When this goes down it does so in quite spectacular fashion

Circa 5 events on here where the share price dropped by 50% in about a year

buywell thinks another event is nigh




free stock charts from uk.advfn.com


buywells' opine is that a 200p retest is likely in coming market weakness after vaccine froth

[alphabeta4] 21/9/2020 15:40

Good bet if people are going to end up stuck indoors again

[thewheeliedealer] 14/9/2020 21:06

Hi all,

My mate Peter @Conkers3 and myself did a ‘Twin Petes Investing’ Podcast a few days ago and part of our discussion includes WINE. We also chatted about loads of other Stocks and the outlook for Markets as we move to what can often be a rocky time of the year.

Anyway, if you use Apple, Audioboom, Overcast or Spotify you can find it under the 'Conkers Corner' Channel (you want TPI Podcast 31) and you can find it on Soundcloud at the link below.

I hope you enjoy it and find it useful,

Cheers, WD
@wheeliedealer

[alphabeta4] 02/9/2020 12:21

Interesting how the directors keep adding, presumably far enough away from the next update to be allowed to deal but still a good sign that they're confident in how business is going.

[djokovic1] 08/8/2020 10:19

Yes.

Currently they are re-investing all their profits into marketing i.e future growth. Which is exactly what you want them to do. They also report a standstill EBIT number (and explain how they calculate it) which shows what profits would be if they did not re-invest into growth.

Finally market is catching on to this undervalued company

[lindowcross] 07/8/2020 14:42

Any sign of any profit?

[alphabeta4] 10/7/2020 09:48

It's funny, I'm a bit different - in the supermarket I don't really know what's new that's worth trying (and am conscious I'm not supposed to be touching the bottles). I would also feel a bit of a tool browsing the section for over 20 mins to select half a dozen plus when I can just do this instead at home at leisure with reviews at hand and more detail than simply that on a wine label.

Also, right now I'm spending far less going out so the £20 bottle I might have tried out before makes £8 in comparison a bit of a cheap treat especially whilst the weather is still mostly nice and me and the Mrs can chill in the garden.

I joined up during Covid and am currently enjoying the change. Personally my orders might drop off a bit if I start going out more but for now I'm quite happy learning about a few new wines and relaxing at home.

[pinemartin9] 01/7/2020 11:20

So as an Angel I can buy a case of 12 reds for £105 including free of charge delivery. That works out at £8.75 average per bottle. It's not a bad price, but if I walked into Waitrose/Tesco/Aldi etc with a budget of £8.75 per bottle you could also buy some very nice wine. I think the Angel price is not bad and includes a slight discount and see the point about cutting out the middle men. For me this is obviously a lifestyle investment and they rely on customer apathy and not cancelling the subscription. Crunch time comes if you withdraw the cash or splurge it on wine. I have to admit, I quite like the idea of going into my local wine shop or even supermarket with £105 to spend on wine and handling the bottles etc. and making my selection. What is nice about Naked Wines is that perhaps the wines are from smaller producers and more boutiquey. This may not necessarily mean they taste any nicer, but it's a nice backstory to have when you're enjoying a tipple with friends!

I like the concept and sentiment here but for me the jury's out as to whether it represents value. Still,always nice to tuck money away from the missus to have available for me leisure! I may withdraw it and top up my online poker account!

[djokovic1] 30/6/2020 18:49

Fair questions Pinemartin.

Re. Value for money: They have a slide in their latest presentation that highlights their value proposition (this is specific for the US, which is their biggest opportunity). Its data from Vivino and it shows that they are significantly better value by offering the same quality wine at much cheaper prices which they can do as they cut out the middleman. My experience as an angel has been great.

Re. retention: I have been surprised by their strong retention in their cohorts even pre-covid. They have this information in their presentation. Of course Covid has given a short term bump in subscribers at very low acquisition cost. It is unknown how many of these will stick but Naked says initial indications of repeat buying by this cohort is positive. (Note: I found Naked share price cheap even before Covid and have been invested in it pre-Covid)

Re. competition: They are the largest online DTC provider in the US. So they are ahead of competition and benefit from larger scale. They also have a lot of excess cash from the sale of Majestic that they can deploy which other players dont have

[pinemartin9] 30/6/2020 17:28

The Naked Angels thing is where you have a direct debit and build up an account. They are banking on people then staying with them. I became an Angel for the first time in lock down after purchasing a new handle for my washing machine from espares and receiving a voucher. I bought a case to send to my brother who was then unemployed as a present. I was auto enrolled in the Angel scheme for the amount I set which was £20 (the min amount). They top this up with a tenner which you can use towards wine. I now have £50 in my account. Either I will splurge it on wine when it builds up or I will withdraw it (less the tenner they gave me). I'm inclined to withdraw it to be honest in the future because I could probably buy a lot cheaper win from the supermarket! Alternatively, I'll withdraw it and top up my spread betting account!

There must be a lot of people like me. Would I call myself a customer/member - no. Because apart from the cheapo offer case I haven't spent anything with them. You only become a customer when you are actively spending with them IMO. Is there also a risk they sign up people and then people decide they all want their cash back at the same time!?

They need to get people to spend more and stay as an Angel for longer. Retention needs to outweigh people leaving and they need to be constantly signing up new members. Also, what about other businesses offering the same? Wind clubs are not new.

[lindowcross] 30/6/2020 16:53

Isn't that what they said about Wirecard?

Retail buyers of wine - like me - are notoriously fickle. If Naked offers a discounted case of wine, I might well go for it. Then I become a "new customer" and show up in the figures and turnover. But it doesn't mean I'll stay with them through thick and thin. Why would I when I can pop down to Morrisons and buy similar quality wines at a better price?

[djokovic1] 30/6/2020 10:06

Lindow you have to do the work to understand the economics of this business which reveals that it is still very cheap with a huge TAM to attack

[pinemartin9] 30/6/2020 09:01

Double top anyone?

[lindowcross] 26/6/2020 18:05

Turnover is vanity, profit is sanity. Be warned.

[djokovic1] 24/6/2020 15:52

Amazing results, IC very simply their LTV to CAC is 4x (currently 5x+ due to covid. They get a payback of 2.5x in 5 years 50% IRR! You don't see profits right now as all the profits are being invested in new customers acquisition. Which is what you want to see, the business re-investing in their highest return opportunities.

[alphabeta4] 24/6/2020 10:06

If you compare H1 to H2 £28m extra revenue made £6.1m extra adj profit (c21.7% margin).
Theoretically that would mean in a blue sky case 81% revenue increase sustained would be £367m, £132m above Sharecast who have revenue at £235m for the year.
£132m x 0.217 = £28.644m. At a tax rate of say 20% is £22.91m.
Sharecast have eps for 2021 of 2.65p, so that becomes 34.08p (2.65p + 22.91/72.88m shares).
So has the potential to transform the forecasts depending on how much sticks.