Mwana Africa Share Discussion Threads

[gwr7] 20/1/2015 10:53

Things do indeed look promising but I'll reserve judgement until I see the result of the bond. If Mpinga gets it away the company is finally out of second gear imo but for the moment there remains the risk that he will drop the ball again.

[lucky punter] 20/1/2015 10:13

Just need nickel to start playing ball again, it's struggling to gain traction with the gloom over perceived future demand. Nickel spot currently $14700 producing a likely $1500 ton margin. Gold today will be producing strong margins for mwa. The Q3 results due out this week will demonstrate $250 an oz clear profit on current spot. Hopefully that will be for 17000 oz a quarter.
These margins can escalate rapidly in response to increasing commodity values and the current operational improvement strategy that will I hope drive down production costs.

[juju44] 20/1/2015 09:35

Gold starting to look promising. Time for MWA, a profitable growing miner, to leave this silly share price behind

[lucky punter] 19/1/2015 10:59

Good to see gold holding its gains on this quiet day for the market. Q3 operational update should be released this week which hopefully will provide some guidance on the possible cost reductions from the recent improvements. All about the margins at the moment and how mwa can weather fluctuations in the commodity values for maximum profit.

[pca] 19/1/2015 09:42

The 240k and 230k showing as sells
are mine and they are buys.

[lucky punter] 19/1/2015 00:17

I will have a look when I get some time, thanks. There will be limited commodity data tomorrow as it's MLK day.

[wstirrup] 18/1/2015 23:08

LP... (sorry for the off-topic for the rest of the board)

I ran another thread for the company under its previous owners called Ivanhoe Mines, (IVN) I stopped posting for several reasons... but there's still a good bit of research there already if you care to look...

W.

[lucky punter] 18/1/2015 22:54

WS I wish I knew more about Mongolia. I have spent time in Zimbabwe, Ethiopia and Sudan and I tend to stick to what I know to reduce my risk. Clearly there are great opportunities elsewhere but timing is everything.

[wstirrup] 18/1/2015 22:41

This piece above makes for interesting reading...

Count up the number of Dollars, Yen, Pounds, Euros, Swiss Francs, Renminbi/Yuan, Roubles, Aussie-Dollars, Thai Baht etc etc etc... Then divvy these up between the number of ounces of Gold, Silver and Copper above ground and usable for currency purposes; add in the number of Bitcoins, Litecoins, Earthcoins, et-al, and you have an approximation of the real value of an ounce of Gold, Silver etc.

Of course we need ratios between the metals, that approximate the ratios between the metals in the soil, then add a soupçon of mania, and there's your Gold and Silver prices...

Gold:silver ratio in the soil? 1:9 - 1:16 depending on who you believe...

Current price ratio? Circa 1:71 I read somewhere today.

Of course, you could look at a piece over on:

This discusses these ratios in a little more detail.

W.

[wstirrup] 18/1/2015 21:24

LP...

Just so you are aware of another miner, I'm keeping my beady eye on it's one in darkest Mongolia...

It was developed by the guy who now owns (CEO and large shareholder) Ivanplats.

The mine was bought from under his nose, when he discovered a HUGE, GOLD/SILVER/COPPER resource in Mongolia.

The mine could be the largest Gold/Copper mine in the world eventually, and is now owned by Rio-Tinto, who bought 51% and turfed him out. Then bought some more, just to consolidate their ownership.

The price peaked at circa $25.00, back in the last gold price spike. NOW, however, the price is in the doldrums, partly because they got a new government in Mongolia, more socialist, and they failed to cough up their portion of the cost overruns - this is a huge undertaking, that requires giant earth-movers, huge underground caverns, hydro-electric and coal-fired electricity generation, which they buy from Chinese owners of the coal mine/power-station that the original owners developed which they sold for $900million.

The business was renamed, and now languishes at the princely sum of circa C$3.30.

I know.. about 2 quid. The amount of resources there, are absolutely effing HUUUUGGGGGEEEEEE!!! LAST quote I saw was circa $245BILLION...

Of course PM and copper prices have halved since then, but still a huge sum.

And the company is? TRQ.TSXV

The rest you can go research yourself(ves.)

[lucky punter] 18/1/2015 21:06

WS I see know reason not to discuss it.

[wstirrup] 18/1/2015 20:48

LP...

It was a flight of fancy... Not meant to be taken literally, just blowing smoke.

I was cogitating if you will, aloud... Some might consider it "speculating"...

I of course could have over or under-estimated.

W.

[mreasygoing] 18/1/2015 16:54

I would be able to retire on such figures ws. Perhaps gold will have its day, but I know how greedy people are so you are right in that respect.

[lucky punter] 18/1/2015 14:54

bump3r I have included the 75% of Bindura. Yes they do own 85% of Freda Rebecca but there is plenty of flex in my figures with increased production decreased costs but it does reduced the £60m for FR to £51m.
BTW I like the way you describe the majority share in FR as ONLY 85%. There are very few projects where the major operator owns more than 85%, normally partnering the government. Some are 50/50

[bump3r] 18/1/2015 14:49

Lucky MWA only have an 85% interest in Freda and around 76% of BNC, so that needs factoring into your calcs

[casabella2] 18/1/2015 12:16

Like the answers particulally WS.

[lucky punter] 18/1/2015 12:10

I don't buy the political risk. If there is a notional 50%Zimbabwe discount then name somewhere with no political risk. All of Africa has political risk and Zimbabwe is no worse. Even places considered safe have been shown to have huge risk. Egypt, Algeria, Tunisia
all thought safe but reality is just not so as factions within the country's are agitating.
Look to the rest of the world and Africa now looks pretty safe. Especially for a company with projects that are feeding the nation and have local black African management.
I do accept Zimbabwe has some bad press and perception is poor. However I would rather back Zimbabwe for the following reasons. They are very keen to get back in with the west. They are desperate to advance so plans are approved quickly and supported through legislation. The leadership looking forwards can only come from one of three or four people. The are no real tribal issues so civil unrest is unlikely when Bobby croaks.
Kalaa says Zimbabwe is the best operating environment in Africa. He is from the DRC and a son of Zimbabwe so he is rather biase but Zimbabwe has caused mwa no trouble and has supported at every turn.
My goal is long term 1 GBP a share but I doubt gold would need to go above $2200 oz to achieve that. Recognition for value will return with stronger commodity values and mwa just need to demonstrate value on what they have now. Throw in increasing profit and a realistic forward looking valuation of 10 or 15 times earnings. No dilution is the key in my view.

[wstirrup] 18/1/2015 00:49

There's a few links I've posted on the AG thread, but missed this one...






Perhaps you should read those too... The silver price is now heading north and where silver goes, gold will follow (and vice versa.)



W.

[lucky punter] 17/1/2015 13:28

This is the first bond of this type and the institutions are required to fill a quota so I suspect there will be a drive to get that quota filled on a project of National pride and importance. We may well see a similar instrument used for the restart of the refinery later this year. It is the next logical step and the Government will do all they can to see finished Nickel produced in Zimbabwe again. Bindura is one of only five mining, smelting and refining facilities in the world and the only one in Africa. This will produce massive commercial advantage and will make sub $10k tons achievable and will lead to the start of a second mine.

Casabella that is the type of question that can make those answering look foolish. Certain posters then copy them later in an attempt to discredit the poster. However my view is that nobody on these anonymous boards has any credibility as we just do not know who we are talking to so I will answer.
My target price is still 10p. That has now moved to 10p with the smelter producing as clearly the AIM is in no mood to value any forward thinking. I believe by July we should be in excess of 6p a share. My range dependent on commodity values is 4p-12p with a six month outlook,
Take it leave it or just laugh at it.

Good luck all.

[casabella2] 17/1/2015 12:35

So what sort of share price are we looking at say July August time and into end of 2015.