Motif Bio Share Discussion Threads

[timw3] 05/10/2017 10:08

Bounce coming? This shuld be trading at £1+ NOW!!

[waterloo01] 05/10/2017 10:07

Good note from Beaufort. Managed to get some just under 43p this AM. ID week bounce coming.

[pyglet] 05/10/2017 10:03

IIs starting to come on board now. PIs need to get in now to get the wholesale price

[pyglet] 05/10/2017 10:02

Sand Grove Capital taking a 5% stake yesterday.

[le mass du pap] 05/10/2017 09:54

MM's have dug themselves a nice little down channel to play in. Aa long as punters comply they will keep paddling. Any break of this will lead to sharp moves. Aimho, dyor, etc...


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[mirabeau] 05/10/2017 09:43

From Beaufort Securities today:

Our View: Truly excellent news! Motif management have delivered on every promise. Based on priority review, Iclaprim is set for a FDA decision in Q4'2018, followed by US commercial launch early in 2019, whereupon it will benefit from 10-years of Qualified Infectious Disease Product ('QIDP') marketing exclusivity. Of course additional funding will required within the next 12 months or so, in order to capture both the drug's full potential and further promote iclaprim while also funding the platform's development of follow-on indications. But the Motif Bio story has turned from 'high risk investment' to 'major commercial opportunity' and attracting such funding on a significantly higher valuation should present no difficulty although, realistically, this is more likely to be secured from potential industrial partners willing to pay handsomely for global territorial rights while the Board's own focus remains on overseeing commercialisation in the US. On the basis of ABSSSI identifying just the US market opportunity, specifically for those hospitalised patients having renal impairment with or without diabetes, of up to 26% of the 3.6 million ABSSSI patients hospitalised annually in the U.S. have kidney disease, suggesting iclaprim's annual market opportunity would be in the range of US$2.8bn. Globally it could be more than twice this for just the first indication, behind which there appears to be half-a-dozen more even larger opportunities. The pulmonary pneumonia one, for example in just the US, is probably twice the size of ABSSSI. Given past share price hiccups and the large retail element in its shareholder base, while spiking yesterday the equity still got nowhere near its true value. Investors should now at least hold on for Beaufort's price target of 110p/share, which will probably be reached when Motif management is able to confirm the signing-up of a major partner to take the non-US distribution rights for, say, an upfront payment of US$150m plus a 4% royalty, although that is possibly nine or so months away still. That said, any disbelievers still out there, could simply look at similar stage antibiotic developer, Nasdaq-listed Paratek Pharmaceuticals Inc. which presently has a valuation five times that of Motif, despite appearing somewhat inferior on the safety front. If the ordinary investor fails to recognise this unusual situation, one thing they can be sure of is that Big Pharma (Merck?) looking to expand their antibiotic portfolios will not. The starting point for discussions to assume outright control of Motif's assets is then likely to be something like 200p/share. Beaufort retains its Speculative Buy recommendation on Motif Bio with a 110p price target.

Beaufort Securities

[le mass du pap] 05/10/2017 09:12

just when you think aim manipulation can't get any worse.....

[fission453] 05/10/2017 08:53

definite buy for me !

[blueblood] 05/10/2017 08:00

Now that's a good buy above 50p

[kingkongtimmo] 05/10/2017 07:55

HUGE buy showing up. Close to £600k

[someuwin] 05/10/2017 07:36

Peel Hunt initiates with 106p target.

[pugugly] 05/10/2017 07:07

Possible flat opening this morning ADR's after an initial spike to $13.7 closed at $11.75 which if my maths and exchange rate are corect is equivalent to a price of 44.5p Spot on UK closing so no help (imo) from US.

[dailylarma] 04/10/2017 23:23

Retrace upwards.That's a new one

[waterloo01] 04/10/2017 20:41

Id week papers look good

[bullet ant] 04/10/2017 19:04

It opened up out the bollinger bands. That's one the main reason it retraced, it was trading outside some parameters.


It should retrace up past 50p. I am big cash buyer buyer on the dips. I want 100p by January.

[gersemi] 04/10/2017 18:22

Motif Bio : The home plate beckons
13:15 04 Oct 2017

US Food & Drug administration approval is yet to be granted but iclaprim, which has fast-track status, is closing in on the promised land.

Antibiotics

INVESTMENT OVERVIEW: MTFB The Big Picture

Patients are increasingly showing resistance to the effects of competing antibiotic vancomycin

Motif Bio Plc (LON:MTFB) on Wednesday came a step closer to crossing home plate with its lead product, a next-generation antibiotic called iclaprim.

For the early results of second phase III clinical study, called REVIVE-2, revealed the medication was both effective and well tolerated.

Northland Capital’s Vadim Alexandre said the company had passed its biggest milestone to date, putting it on course to make a new drug submission in the first quarter next year.

If all goes to plan, the market launch of iclaprim, which is also being developed for other indications such as hospital acquired infections, should take place in the second half of 2018.

The shares shot up 41% to 51.69p, valuing Motif at £136mln. But that might not capture the full potential of Motif’s breakthrough.

Northland’s Alexandre pointed out that when benchmarking Motif it might be worth using as a reference Paratek Pharmaceuticals, which is listed on NASDAQ and has a drug similar to iclaprim coming to market.

The Americans, who tend to be a little punchier with their valuations, think it is worth US$700mln, or £527mln.

The small-cap broker, finnCap, certainly thinks there’s some upside to the current share price with its £1 a share price target, which would get Motif to the quarter of a billion pound mark

We’ll have to wait to see if there is a re-rating and just how far into the stratosphere this takes us, but all the ingredients are there.
So what exactly has happened?

Well we received what is called top-line data from the REVIVE-2 trial – that’s the bare-bones result from a months’ long study.

The trial pitted Motif’s iclaprim treatment against vancomycin in patients with acute bacterial skin and skin structure infections (ABSSSI).

The intent was to show that iclaprim was just as good as (the technical term is non-inferior to) the gold standard medication. The results did just that.

Chief executive Graham Lumsden said the positive outcome was “testament to the incredible efforts of our team at Motif who have worked tirelessly to get us to this stage”.

“We believe that these results validate our belief in iclaprim as a potential new antibiotic candidate for patients with serious and life-threatening infections. I thank the patients and clinicians who participated in this important study,” he added.
Valuable asset

If approved, the antibiotic will be an important new option for patients with ABSSSI, especially those who may also have kidney disease.

This could apply to just over a quarter of the 3.6mln people annually who contract the acute skin infection in the US.

“Unlike current standard of care antibiotics, in clinical trials to date, kidney toxicity has not been observed with iclaprim and dosage adjustment has not been required in patients with renal impairment,” said Lumsden.

“Iclaprim may be an important option for the growing population of patients with ABSSSI and kidney disease who need a safe and effective antibiotic targeting Gram-positive bacteria, including MRSA."

As mentioned above, this wasn’t the first phase III assessment successfully completed by Motif.

Potential partnerships?

REVIVE-1 was an identical study, but used different trial centres. It also rubber stamped the potential of iclaprim in patients with ABSSSI.

Results from the first cohort also revealed it as a potential alternative treatment for those with kidney disease, which could end up being a a huge selling point.

“[There are] unique clinical benefits aimed at prescribing clinicians that will, in our opinion drive iclaprim adoption at an accelerated pace,” said finnCap analyst Alex Pye.

“Fixed dosage and renal sparing make a very compelling prescribing argument for treating patients with iclaprim over vancomycin, which increasingly shows signs of developing resistance.”

Pye pointed out that Motif may be approached by larger pharmaceuticals companies who would look to sell the new product through their established sales networks and hospital contacts.

He said this could drive market share gains beyond the 15% being predicted by the market.

The finnCap number cruncher is sticking with his £1 a share valuation – for the time being - as US Food & Drug administration approval is yet to be granted.

“But given iclaprim’s fast track status and potential appeal to clinicians, we believe that the long term prospects of the antimicrobial are robust,” he added.

-

From Proeactivv

[inversi0n] 04/10/2017 18:08

DrMaccers


Thanks.

[waterloo01] 04/10/2017 17:33

ID week tomorrow will be important. They need to get across the the safety data, which sunk it last time, and why it's different this time around. (ie dropped oral version, if I understand it). I think this is what is holding it where it is, rather than hitting new highs. Answer the safety question and the brakes come off IMO

[bookbroker] 04/10/2017 17:31

Weak rise on this news in part due to the CEO suggesting a fund raise is necessary to get Iclaprim to market in last statement.

[drmaccers] 04/10/2017 17:11

Inversion - they have fda fast track. Result in 6 months of submitting

[inversi0n] 04/10/2017 16:46

Could be fast tracked by FDA too.

[waterloo01] 04/10/2017 16:25

The arb closes once UK market closes so where it ends on Nasdaq will be interesting. IF it does get approval, it might not be 1st/2nd line but it has a market and it's potential use in MSRA and Strep is a further significant market opportunity

[babbler] 04/10/2017 16:22

Back to open price. Meh. See what tomorrow brings and Monday post the event.

[pyglet] 04/10/2017 16:20

wonder why its flat lining already - MMS gone for a beer early.