Motif Bio Share Discussion Threads

[t-trader] 15/9/2017 14:47

Added another sizeable amount this afternoon. Very positive RNS

[1savvyinvestor] 15/9/2017 14:39

Agreed. That is an excellent and unexpected update (certainly unexpected to me)

[brucie5] 15/9/2017 14:25

Yes, brilliant. Just added a few more on that. And that's my lot.

[brucie5] 15/9/2017 14:15

I wonder if current climate isn't also going to favour stocks like this: ones that have little premium built in, but quite a lot of room to surprise. May be wishful thinking on my part. But this looks like it could have a decent run from here on the basis of being recently quite oversold.

[someuwin] 15/9/2017 14:10

Here we go!

[brucie5] 15/9/2017 12:00

Potentially very interesting chart. It's been in a falling trend for some time, and technically, still is. It would have to get to the late 30s for this to change, demonstrably. However, it's clearly encountered some support, and may even decide to have a go. With 30p broken, I think there may be some further speculative interest just in case the turn around is really happening. MACD just turned up. DYOR, of course - this is not based on fundamentals.

[brucie5] 15/9/2017 10:55

Agreed. I've taken a small position accordingly.

[someuwin] 15/9/2017 09:00

Expecting to see this back over 30p very soon.

[ilovetowin] 13/9/2017 14:32

Looking better

[adorling] 12/9/2017 17:49

Already up 8.8% in US!

[pyglet] 12/9/2017 14:19

just added

[someuwin] 12/9/2017 13:50

Numerous Acquisitions in Antibiotic Sector Point to Motif Being Undervalued

"...Over the past five years, there have been a number of acquisitions in the antibiotic sector that may help to put Motif’s current valuation (~$100 million) in perspective.

➢ In 2013, Cubist Pharmaceuticals acquired Trius Therapeutics for $707 million plus up to $109 million in contingent payments based on future sales goals. Trius had one late-stage antibiotic candidate, tedizolid phosphate, which at the time of the acquisition had successfully met all primary and secondary endpoints in two Phase 3 clinical trials in ABSSSI. The company was planning to submit a New Drug Application in the U.S. in the second half of 2013 and a Marketing Authorization Application (MAA) in Europe in the first half of 2014. Trius had partnered with Bayer for the development and commercialization of tedizolid phosphate outside of the U.S., Canada, and the European Union. Tedizolid phosphate, now sold as Sivextro®, was approved in June 2014 and is currently sold by Merck.

➢ At the same time as the Trius deal, Cubist also bought Optimer Pharmaceuticals for $535 million plus up to $266 million in contingent payments based on future sales goals. Optimer sold Dificid®, which was approved by the FDA in 2011 for the treatment of Clostridium difficile-associated diarrhea (CDAD).

➢ In October 2014, Actavis bought Durata Therapeutics for $675 million plus contingent payments of up to $147 million based on future sales goals. Durata had received approval for dalbavancin (Dalvance®) in May 2014. Dalvance® is currently sold by Allergan, following its acquisition by Actavis in March 2015.

➢ In December 2014, Merck bought Cubist for $9.5 billion, which included the assumption of $1.1 billion of Cubist debt. While Cubist had a substantial pipeline, Merck purchased Cubist mostly for Cubicin® (daptomycin), which achieved peak sales of $1.1 billion.

The aforementioned deals all lend support to the idea that Motif is currently undervalued on a comparative basis, particularly the deal for Trius, as that company was in almost exactly the same position that Motif could find itself in over the next couple of months, assuming positive results from REVIVE-2.

In addition to the past deals mentioned above, we believe a reasonable current comparison could be made to Paratek Pharmaceuticals, which is developing omadacycline. The company has reported positive Phase 3 data for omadacycline in a Phase 3 trial of ABSSSI as well as a Phase 3 trial of community-acquired bacterial pneumonia (CABP). Paratek currently has a market cap of $710 million."

[someuwin] 12/9/2017 12:16

This has been due a significant move up for a long time.

[adorling] 12/9/2017 11:52

Nice to see some blue for more than 2 days in a row - some confidence coming back driven by US interest.

[small crow] 12/9/2017 09:49

someuwin,

And, even better, MTFB are not in urgent need of that finance.

[someuwin] 12/9/2017 09:18

Interesting to note Summit PLC (LSE:SUMM) yesterday was awarded a $62m grant from the US government to advance their novel C. difficile Infection antibiotic.

Goes to show that there is huge interest in, and finances available for companies developing much needed new antibiotics - i.e MTFB

[longshanks] 12/9/2017 08:31

My purchase last week is starting to look well timedThere should be a growing body of support as we approach readout of the confirmatory trial

[t-trader] 12/9/2017 08:27

Well oversold, hopefully some momentum will start to build towards R2.

[small crow] 12/9/2017 07:01

Well, it's been manipulated to hell down to these levels. Let's see where it goes now assuming those masters of the universe have finally got what they wanted? If R2 reads out well, then 50p would be a decent starter.

[blueblood] 11/9/2017 15:13

2 presentations this week followed by financial results this month before biggie and Revive 2 read out in October. What's not to like at these prices!

[pugugly] 11/9/2017 15:09

So where was this tipped over the weekend - Knowledge ?

[drmaccers] 06/9/2017 07:40

And they've been conservative with COS and sales etc.Once R2 passes it's much much higher

[small crow] 06/9/2017 07:31

Dr Maccers

So that's about fourfold current price - call it a quid in old money.

[drmaccers] 06/9/2017 07:26

Zach's in USA have $28 price target for ADRs now