Motif Bio Share Discussion Threads

[mike1608] 07/2/2019 13:40

MTFB losing steam?

[ivyspivey] 07/2/2019 13:34

Major SH list updated yesterday to include recent warrants but no other changes

Ordinary Shares
As at 05 February 2019, the Company has 297,491,023 Ordinary Shares on issue. In general, there are no restrictions on the transfer or sale of the Company’s shares. There are no shares held in treasury. 33.2% of the shares are not in public hands.
Significant Shareholders
Shareholding
Percentage
Invesco Perpetual
72,290,771
24.4
Sand Grove Capital Management
33,264,087
11.2
M&G Group
26,849,751
9.1
Amphion Group
25,254,611
8.5
CONTACT US

Motif Bio plc
201 Temple Chambers

[ivyspivey] 06/2/2019 20:01

MTFB made lots of changes to trial protocol to give Iclaorim a better chance of Approval.
Changed the comparator from Linezolid to Vancomycin as soc/ changed NI margin from 12.5 to 10%/ changed from weight related to fixed 80mg I/v dose at suggestion of FDA to lessen risks of increased CTc prolongation rates.
They increased US and LA trial sites as previous choice gave FDA concerns with Arpida application.
Also as said whole environment post Ketek changed with all 3 ABs Approved that were rejected 10 years ago.
Use of Covance helped a lot

[bocase] 06/2/2019 16:20

Dave4545: You may have noticed that just after 3pm today the bid on Motif dropped right down to about 42.50 whilst the offer stayed at 44.20 giving a very wide spread. I went on the bid to buy 20 000 and immediately was leap frogged by a program trade and I repeated this about six or seven times until the algo trade stopped leapfrogging me. I am now sitting on the bid at 43.30 so managed to increased the bid price by almost 1p without actually buying any.

Just shows how the price can be moved on a quiet day.

[dave4545] 06/2/2019 15:59

Yeah weird how shares can flip from desperate to hero in one day.

I was thinking AMP might get noticed when Motif have another strong day.

But Amp's bid has rose 90% in the time Motif has not actually moved. From a lowest offer of 0.525p to 0.95p bid in one day so they have almost done the first 100% without Motif making any further inroads into that 80-100p target.

People love the tiny caps because without a seller they can fly, people piled into Motif yesterday but it's such a big stock it never budged them

[123js] 06/2/2019 15:49

Quite a good angle Dave...

[banshee] 06/2/2019 15:11

They (AMP) have had to sell periodically to service their debt load. AMP have been a millstone around Motif's neck for years, having squandered enormous sums funding predictably disasterous, patent troll style, legal actions in the US :)

[pyglet] 06/2/2019 14:56

I do believe that AMP off loaded a lot of MTFB shares also not long back.

[dave4545] 06/2/2019 14:27

Amphion are a start up investment stock who hold around 25 million Mtfb shares.

At first glance it looks like the bargain of the century £1 mil cap when their stake in Motif is worth £10 million but they have over £20 million of liabilities.

I was just saying because of Amp size it could easily spike on demand so if you are punting here it would be worth punting Amp too because doubling of the price in Motif could mean a much bigger % gain in Amp.

Missed the boat now Amp short term the bargain prices of 0.53p are long gone but one to watch if they have another weak spell.

[lionheart69uk1] 06/2/2019 14:17

Sorry dave4545 but who are AMP and up 68% over what time frame?

[dave4545] 06/2/2019 14:05

Tried to give you lot a heads up yesterday with AMP who hold 25 mil Mtfb

They are up 68% currently.

[rabito79] 06/2/2019 14:03

Importantly other drugs failed at the same time have now been approved. Furthermore regular communication with the FDA should mean there are no show-stopping surprises.

[metis20] 06/2/2019 13:55

Also, from memory, the FDA changed the goal posts part way through the phase 3 trial back in 2009. That was I think because FDA were under pressure to up the barriers because a drug or drugs the FDA had approved subsequently had to be withdrawn because of unforeseen side effects?

[pyglet] 06/2/2019 13:30

Reading back at the reason why the FDA refused the admission of Iclaprim for general use in 2009, it appears to me that 10 years later MTFB have met the criteria asked of them in full ie more clinical data through more trials producing clear evidence of its efficacy and the additional benefits the drug will bring to the population as a whole, both clinical and financial. Not long now people.

[metis20] 06/2/2019 08:12

replace xx by proacti veinvestors (but exclude the gap!)

[ivyspivey] 05/2/2019 21:38

Am confident that will be a positive PDUFA decision and not the dreaded CRL but always an element of risk even albeit an extremely small one imo.
Really looking forward to more details of US Commercialisation pathway hopefully following a positive decision.
ATB

[bountyhunter] 05/2/2019 21:35

Hope so as long as it's saying FDA approval! If so then I would expect a significant rise post approval.

[ivyspivey] 05/2/2019 21:02

Thanks Bounty Hunter I am normally on LSE and you can post link directly on there.
Will stay on there for MTFB but had to move across here for another share and happy to input here if able to.

We have obviously known about the increase in M&G fir a few weeks now as an off market transaction to maintain an orderly market but good it is official to SEC.
Possibly get an RNS tomorrow

[dave4545] 05/2/2019 20:50

Personally if Mtfb was to reach 80-100p then you double your money from here.

But I'm thinking of the potential rise in Amp if that was to happen. I'm fully aware of the huge liabilities Amp have but I'm think the spike and illiquidiy of the stock as it's just a £1 mil cap.

All a gamble but if Mtfb were to succeed and get to 80-100 I think Amp could do 500% from it's current level.

[bermudashorts] 05/2/2019 20:37

Good stuff thanks Ivy

[bountyhunter] 05/2/2019 20:22

Yes bocase I agree and believe it's any time up to the 13/2 which is the latest date that we should hear.

Ivy just capitalise the leading H to make your link clickable ( thanks for posting it ) i.e.

[ivyspivey] 05/2/2019 20:18

Hope all are well.
Confirmation of M&G going to 9.1%
Was listed in MTFB website but now confirmed to SEC.

hxxp://ir.motifbio.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=254416&p=irol-secText&TEXT=aHR0cDovL2FwaS50ZW5rd2l6YXJkLmNvbS9maWxpbmcueG1sP2lwYWdlPTEyNjc2MTE5JkRTRVE9MSZTRVE9JlNRREVTQz1TRUNUSU9OX0JPRFkmZXhwPSZzdWJzaWQ9NTc%3d

[bocase] 05/2/2019 19:41

My understanding is that the FDA decision is BY the 13th Feb. ie could be any day now.

[catch007] 05/2/2019 18:23

The share price upward trend continues to be positive …..major spike north I hope if the approval is given next week ….its a binary bet now