Morrison (wm) Supermarkets Share Discussion Threads

[loganair] 17/9/2019 14:08

Supermarket market share - note Kantar excludes M&S who have around 3.3% of the grocery market share so in reality the market share of the supermarkets is lower then that given by Kantar:


...........June 2018..June 2019..Sept 2019

Tesco........27.7%......27.3%......26.9%
Sainsburys...15.6%......15.3%......15.3%
Asda.........15.1%......14.9%......15.1%
Morrison.....10.6%......10.4%.......9.9%
Aldi..........7.4%.......7.9%.......8.1%
Co-op.........6.1%.......6.2%.......6.6%
Lidl..........5.4%.......5.7%.......6.0%
Waitrose......5.1%.......5.0%.......5.0%
Iceland.......2.2%.......2.1%.......2.1%
Ocado.........1.2%.......1.4%.......1.4%

Out of the so called big 4, Asda seems to be holding up the best. Pound for pound turnover they are 50% plus more profitable than Sainsbury's.

15 months ago Morrison had 3.2% more market share than Aldi, this is not down to 1.8%. If the shrinking differential carries on at the same rate then in less then 2 years Aldi with over take Morrison in market share.

[williamcooper104] 17/9/2019 14:06

It's certainly material It's easy to work out what a £1bn is to market cap The harder thing to get a feel for how much of the damage is priced into the current sp

[essentialinvestor] 17/9/2019 14:00

Aldi to open 1 UK supermarket a week for the next 2 years.

[essentialinvestor] 17/9/2019 13:57

It's more than a remote risk, it's a material risk imv.

Although I would doubt anything like 60 pence off the SP,
that would be a gift.

[williamcooper104] 16/9/2019 18:51

It's not new news But it's not a remote risk

[justiceforthemany] 16/9/2019 18:27

This is all old news. No new developments. Nothing will come of it.

[scotches] 16/9/2019 17:07

The pay is already equal. If women want to take the warehouse jobs they will be paid the same as a man.



The judgement seems perverse that they are able to judge that two different skill jobs should be paid exactly the same.

Isn't that the job of the market to determine what people are paid and currently the market indicates that the ladies don't seem to want the 6am starts in a cold warehouse with heavy work (despite the current higher pay).

[kazoom] 16/9/2019 14:48

Interesting thoughts on the Equal Pay case!

All guesswork on the share price impact I think, but :

2.3Bn shares in issue would imply a one-off £1bn ought to be c. 40p /share.
Plus a further drop because the balance sheet would then look much more strained.
Less the extent to which the risk of this is "already in the price".

I would probably then agree with both of you 20p-60p!

(It's a bit painful sitting on this fence!)

[williamcooper104] 16/9/2019 14:21

Mine would be more like 30-60p (agree that it might not be as much as £1bn but it could actually be more and initially markets likely to overshoot on a bad judgment) Agree not likely to be immediately payable but doubt it can be spun out for years and years If it's close to £1bn the balance sheet would appear to be able to bear it but to create liquidity for future investment MRW would need to raise capital - probably via sale and leasebacks - which would raise leverage and the risk profile of the stock - which could further impact upon the share price If amazon are really going to buy then you would have thought that when a bad judgement was fully priced into the share price would be the time to strike

[essentialinvestor] 16/9/2019 14:08

The court case has been flagged up here previously and to be fair it
remains a material risk. Whether the sum would in practical terms amount to £1 billion is debatable, and would doubt that would need to be paid immediately.

In terms of the impact on the MRW SP, that's guesswork, a range of 20 -25 pence would be my
guessestimate.

[leedslad001] 15/9/2019 13:35

Love the desperate shorters lol

[cautious7] 15/9/2019 12:46

Hi

When will Morrisons be making their court appearance?
One billion pound cost, if this happens will the share price go below 1 pound?

DYOR

C7

[williamcooper104] 13/9/2019 22:08

Interesting Seems that Asda have lost three times and are going to the Supreme Court So this doesn't look like being a remote contingent liability

[cautious7] 13/9/2019 21:34

Claims line growing

hxxps://www.equalpaynow.co.uk/morrisons-equal-pay/?gclid=Cj0KCQjw_OzrBRDmARIsAAIdQ_JsgPuW7HwELOWP00B9rjkBYRQZnwc1HMBDnzNOcSm6ofMVevBTVa8aAl6_EALw_wcB


DYOR

[cautious7] 13/9/2019 21:22

Hi

With Morrisons possibly having to pay up to one billion pounds, how would that affect the share price?



DYOR

[oldvic] 13/9/2019 21:16

take over target

[scotches] 13/9/2019 16:03

The impact to the grocery sector of the new accounting rules for leases will become more apparent when Sainsbury and Tesco report.

"The new standard represents a significant change in the accounting and reporting for leases, impacting the income statement and balance sheet as well as statutory and other performance metrics used by the Group. The work is nearing completion and the Group estimates that adopting IFRS 16 will have the following impact on the consolidated balance sheet at 10 March 2018:



· Recognition of a right of use asset in the region of £5.1 billion.

· Recognition of a lease liability in the region of £5.9 billion.

· Other balance sheet adjustments of around £0.1 billion and an adjustment to opening reserves in the region of £0.9 billion (pre-tax)."

[essentialinvestor] 13/9/2019 15:00

elmfield, net debt is slightly lower, if you are referring to MRW.
The reported figure has taken a jump with new accounting treatment of
lease liabilities, which were previously kept off balance sheet.

It would not surprise me if the interim special dividend has been used as
a means of boosting the SP, so any potential bidder coughs up more -
very much a case of speculation on my part Only.

[loganair] 13/9/2019 09:19

I think the big institutions who automate trade, often holding shares for less then 1 second need banning as they cause a huge amount of damage to the investing environment.

The stock market is where a company is supposed to go to raise finance to be able to expand and grow not a place where the likes of Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo trade via automation thousands of times per second.

Goldmans and the like now pay computer programmers more then practically anybody else in their companies.

[leedslad001] 13/9/2019 08:23

Hope shorters feeling sick

[elmfield] 13/9/2019 07:48

The marvels of QE,
Pay a divi, borrow more,
The day of reckoning ain’t that far away.
Meanwhile make silage.

[johnwise] 13/9/2019 07:43

A company borrows money to pay a "special dividend"..Marvellous

Net debt GBP 2,358m with a Profit before tax and exceptionals of GBP198m

[essentialinvestor] 13/9/2019 00:18

I've made the same point here previously - Aldi compare their prices to
Other supermarket branded goods. If you look on an own brand to own brand
basis I don't see much difference. However Aldi/Lidl have nowhere near peaked,
3-4 years market share growth left would expect.


Pretty decent set of results and outside possibility Amazon come knocking
at some point.