Morrison (wm) Supermarkets Share Discussion Threads

[bookbroker] 16/4/2019 19:24

This company needs a merger of some sort, with its market share it should be thinking where does it sit in the future, still seem unable to monetise their vertically integrated system, should place far more emphasis on that message to customers!

[buywell2] 10/4/2019 16:16

David Potts can't even find his potty

Fat chance this has

[maxidi] 10/4/2019 13:10

WE WANT PROPORTIONAL REPRESENTATION NOT FIRST PAST THE POST.
PLEASE SIGN...

[loganair] 02/4/2019 14:21

I have been posting that after divesting 150 stores and 5 years Sainsburys/Asda will have a market share of around 28.5%.

However after seeing how fast Aldi and Lidl are still growing and especially how Aldi are now starting to open their own conveneince stores, I'm changing my thoughts to after 5 years the combined Saisnburys/Asda will have around the same market share as Tesco's will have at that time, while Aldi will have a market share of aroung the same or slightly higher then Morrsion's.

[loganair] 02/4/2019 13:17

Aldi’s sales climbed by 10.6% in the period when the retailer again notched up a record market share of 8%.

McKevitt expected further growth. He said: “London holds potential for Aldi, as both its fastest-growing region and where its market share is currently lowest, going some way to explain the recently announced trial of the smaller Aldi Local format in the capital.”

With Aldi starting to move into convenience store format gives another good reason for Morrisons to buy McColl's as this would give them an immediate 1,250 conveneience stores.

[loganair] 02/4/2019 12:50

Aldi is catching up with Morrison very quickly, at the current rate will most probably over take Morrison in as little as two years. Seems to me another good reason if all goes well with supplying McColl's to buy them out maybe as early as some time next year.

.................Kantar..............Nielsen
..........End March..End January...End January


Tesco.......27.4%.......27.2%..........26.8%
Asda........15.4%.......15.5%..........13.8%
Sainsbury...15.3%.......15.7%..........14.8%
Morrison....10.3%.......10.5%...........9.8%
Aldi.........8.0%........7.6%...........8.9%
Coop.........6.1%........5.9%...........4.7%
Lidl.........5.6%........5.2%...........5.9%
Waitrose.....5.0%........5.2%...........4.3%
M&S..........---.........---............3.5%
Iceland......2.1%........2.2%...........2.4%

Kantar do not give a market share for M&S and seems to not take them into account.
when calculating market share of the various supermarkets.

The biggest gain in market share is Aldi with Tesco not far behind while Sainsbury's is dropping like a stone therefore I can no longer see any good reason why the CMA will not let their merger with ASDs go ahead with and agreed 150 store divestment.

[loganair] 27/3/2019 09:06

Doesn't explain why Nielsen include M&S in their figures while Kantar doesn't.

These figures only include the sale of food stuffs therefore will not include the like of Argos etc.

If Nielsen are more correct then Kantar then Sainburys/Asda combined market share will only be 28.6%.

[loganair] 26/3/2019 22:30

Just looking at the market shares of the various supermakets given by both Kantar and Nielsen...and there is quite a difference:


..........Kantar...Nielsen

Tesco......27.2%....26.8%
Sainsbury..15.7%....14.8%
Asda.......15.5%....13.8%
Morrison...10.5%.....9.8%
Aldi........7.6%.....8.9%
Coop........5.9%.....4.7%
Lidl........5.2%.....5.9%
Waitrose....5.2%.....4.3%
M&S.........---......3.5%
Iceland.....2.2%.....2.4%

Kantar do not give a market share for M&S and seems to not take them into account when calculating market share of the various supermarkets.

Kantar given Aldi/Lidl 12.8% market share while Nielsen give them 14.8%

[loganair] 22/3/2019 15:24

Sainsbury's said selling 125 and 150 supermarkets, plus a number of convenience stores and 32 petrol stations, giving the opportunity for new entrants to come in or allow smaller rivals to expand rapidly is a "proportionate and effective" response to the concerns, while claiming the CMA had overstated the level of divestments needed.

The stores should be sold to a single rival or new entrant, Sainsbury’s said. The grocers have already received expressions of interest from potential buyers, according to the document.

Sainsbury's said the views expressed by the watchdog "indicate a preference for the most stringent and interventionist approach" on every measure and that this was far more severe than in previous cases.

The supermarkets submitted their own revised figures suggesting there were many fewer areas of concern and offering their own proposal about the number of sites that would need to be sold to rivals.


Personal note - Divesting 150 supermarkets plus a number of convenience stores would reduce Sainsburys/Asda combined market share to around 30%. Selling these supermarkets to Morrison would increase their market share to around 11.5%. If then Morrison's took over McColl's would immediately give Morrison's around 1,250 convenience stores.

Looking forward 5 years. If they keep growing as they are Aldi/Lidl will have around 18% market share, while Sainsbury's/Asda will have fallen to around 28.5% or may be a little less.

Important to bare in mind, a few years ago Tesco had a market share approaching 33%, falling back to around 27.5% where it is today.

[essentialinvestor] 20/3/2019 14:56

It's a fair point, particularly given some notable successes for the short sellers
over the last 12 months, where much of the UK retail sector has provided fertile hunting ground.

If you want to make a bearish case it's valuation that I might like at.
16x approx on foward esrnings is not exactly cheap given the sector backdrop.

[bookbroker] 20/3/2019 12:16

About as good as everyone else I suspect, if we all had a crystal ball we would not be here, sure Tate was an early sell, all twelve months ago, I don’t make any pure judgements, just an argument for and against in most cases. Tomorrow is history, and I do not dwell too much except for the short time after, we all have to make an opinion if we are going to invest, and the case here as stated above, how it plays out is anyone’s guess, that why some would deem it all a gamble if you remove the dividend!

[essentialinvestor] 20/3/2019 11:36

bookbroker, with respect your record on calling share prices is abysmal.

Remember you telling me on the CNA board 2 years ago that Centrica would be
about debt free by now. I said to you it was a value trap.

You also lost faith in Tate just at the wrong time, nicely over £7 now
and paying a fat dividend.

[bookbroker] 20/3/2019 11:32

No reason why these these will not rise, recent very positive statement although muted reception, likely future special dividends, may do sale and leaseback of property, vertically integrated business very much in vogue now with Brexit, possible takeover or corporate action. Nothing to suggest business will falter, McColl’s arrangement starting to bear fruit. Barbar argument so far not even apparent, all he says is these will fall, but what are his reasons, and the Aldi/Lidl argument now long in the tooth, Asda/Sainbury's merger very much a sign of distress between the two, and the MMC. Not likely to grant a review unless wide scale disposals.

[essentialinvestor] 20/3/2019 11:10

Depends what happens to the wider UKX within that time.

As MRW is a FT100 constituent it needs to be measured in relative terms against that index.

[barbar7619] 19/3/2019 18:56

Give it time. Like shares going up patience is needed. I will come back to you in 6 months and we will see who's right.

[nerdlinger] 19/3/2019 17:22

good results, nice divi, love Morries

[essentialinvestor] 19/3/2019 09:29

barbar, not the greatest start to your Sell post ;

[chinese investor] 19/3/2019 08:31

Good Start !

[barbar7619] 18/3/2019 07:23

You entitled to your opinion. The Birthday section in stores isn't making any such profit they firstly expected. Secondly the fresh pizza making in stores are running out and customers are complaining. Thirdly after committing to home delivery the fresh produce has suffered and in some stores they have none. I believe the home delivery service has done well but to the detriment of the walk in customer. This will hit 3 year lows very soon. Imo any investor worth their salt wouldn't invest in this company right now.

[essentialinvestor] 18/3/2019 00:25

Disagree, think the management are first rate.
The issues are the sector challenges.
Amazon might bid at some stage, however that's highly speculative.

[barbar7619] 17/3/2019 12:56

To all holders of this share. This share price will not last and imo you need to sell. The company have a bad reputation of fresh produce running out in stores across the uk on a daily basis. They are poorly run and the management are from the 70s 80s style of managing. If you have any knowledge of shares and investing then there are many other quality shares about with growth potential far better than Morrison's. Anyone who doesn't want to listen then...... Good luck

[pjleeds] 15/3/2019 16:56

How about Amazon to buy Asda.