Moonpig Share Discussion Threads

[masurenguy] 23/12/2024 19:23

Moonpig launches AI-driven handwriting tool
The online card firm has introduced a feature enabling users to create their own digital handwriting, bridging the gap between convenience and personalisation

The new feature, which launched this month, allows Moonpig users to create their own digital handwriting by drawing each letter of the alphabet in lower and upper-case fonts. Technology then generates a font for each user which can be stored in their account and used again.

Complete article:

[yump] 23/12/2024 12:58

Just don’t want this sold off to VC before Greetz gets into profit and experiences is rationalised.

Although the latter has been a bit of a burden, the acquisitions have almost made Moon the sole source for easy buying of experience gifts. These sorts of acquisitions escape any competition issues, but they gradually turn into semi-monopolies.

Just the same as Amazon has over SME’s because they have no way of being seen otherwise.

I used to promote buyagift and red letter days as an affiliate and make good money, because in the days of desktops, you could advertise fairly cheaply, as there were at least 15 visible results on page 1 of a Google search.

Now the internet is dominated by very large middle-men and Moon is one of them.

[masurenguy] 23/12/2024 09:42

"Moonpig’s half-year revenue increased 3.8% to £158m, while adjusted cash profit grew 1% to £41.8m thanks to growth in new customers and orders from existing ones, prompting the company to upgrade its targets. As an online business with low capital requirements, Moonpig generated £10m of free cash flow, which allowed the company to cut debt and post its first dividend. Moonpig’s forward PE ratio of 19 is reasonable. 222p" Investors Chronicle

[masurenguy] 18/12/2024 08:26

Broker tips: Moonpig
Mon 16 Dec 2024

Last week's dramatic share-price plunge at cards and gifts retailer Moonpig represents a good buying opportunity for investors, according to Canaccord Genuity, which reiterated its positive stance on the stock. Moonpig said last Tuesday that it swung to a pre-tax loss of £33.3m in the first half, from a profit of £18.9m the year before, and pointed to "challenging" trading in its Experiences segment. However, Canaccord said results were still "strong" and kept a 'buy' rating on the shares on Monday, raising its target price from 254.0p to 267.0p.

"Moonpig delivered a strong set of interim results, upgrading medium-term EBITDA margins by 100bps, yet this got overshadowed by tough trading on the gifting side and by a non-cash impairment of the Experiences business, while a high share price into the results resulted in a sell-off in the stock. We believe the sell-off in the shares provides a buying opportunity with the investments made into the platform beginning to pay off with Moonpig returning to active customer growth and seeing rising order frequency, while new revenue initiatives are helping support the margin." said analysts.

[julietzed] 11/12/2024 13:23

I thought they wanted to keep hold of the data as part of their platform ambition? I'm not entirely convinced they have that potential imo, but it's a novel ambition.

Yes, I've owned card since it was in the 40s and 50s, and it has grown like-for-like every year since it's gone public, which is an incredible achievement, and I'm also surprised by how long it's been selling at a discount and totally understand why an Australian billionaire and The Gates Foundation are shareholders.

Well, I just don't think it's coincidental that, given there's 100m debt on the balance sheet, that they've decided on large distributions just before they announce that the management has massively overpaid for an acquisition, which was supposed to be strategic and hasn't really proven to be.

Finally, I think that's somewhat lazy thinking and why card is such an opportunity because of such thinking. There are many successful physical retailers who are far from a risky bet. I would rather own Primark than Boohoo or ASOS, even with their data; Aldi and Lidl thrive as does B&M and many more. I

[yump] 11/12/2024 09:38

Its not a tech business, its a consumer business using tech., so it has “captive”; customers. Customer data sells very well on the open market and has great value to sellers, thats why everyone is after your email address just for buying paperclips.

I imagine there’s still a decent future for Card. Why its attracted a following on advfn is a puzzle, probably to do with trading rather than investing, which is probably why this thread is very quiet.

Moon took over experiences businesses before the cost of living problems and a general drop in larger discretionary purchases.

So they are a current drag until they are sorted out and so is Greetz until its profitable.

I’m not trading so not looking for temporary shares in risky areas like physical retail.

[julietzed] 10/12/2024 18:04

Results were okay. There was a bit of froth here imo, anyway.

Seems management blundered with £124m of cash for Red Letter Days and is trying to get people to look elsewhere by shouting 'tech' and paying out lots of cash. It's not growing like a tech company.

Some good ideas and run well-ish, but I won't be getting back in. Much more upside to card imo, but I don't want people here to hate me for saying that ;)

[yump] 10/12/2024 17:28

Weird mix of very large trades and lots of very small ones today.

Not sure why the share price rose into results - they'd not signposted or hinted at an exceeds.

[yump] 10/12/2024 14:37

The valuation here is because of the online market dominance and the “captive”; audience of users.

For anyone not familiar with the holy grail of business, its annually recurring revenues and a set of users or clients than can all be upgraded, cross-sold etc etc. Preferably the business to have built a close to monopoly in its market.

Strictly speaking Moon don’t have the Amazon Prime type of recurring revenues though.

Also these results have been produced despite problems with gifting and Greetz being loss-making.

Stick it in the US and the p/e would be nearer 50 than 20.

[martinmc123] 10/12/2024 10:07

4*
Moonpig Group plc posted HY results for the period ended 31st October which were pretty looking. Reported revenue increased by 3.8% year-on-year to £158.0m, driven by double digit growth at the Moonpig brand. Adjusted EBITDA was up marginally to £41.8m from H1 FY24 £41.4m with margin rate above the Group’s medium-term target range. Adjusted profit before taxation growth was 9.0% to £27.3m reflecting growth in trading and lower interest costs. Current trading also remains in line with expectations with growth underpinned...from WealthOracle

wealthoracle.co.uk/detailed-result-full/MOON/1075

[masurenguy] 10/12/2024 08:19

Why are these terrible figures ? Sales were marginally up 3.8% with gross margin improvements resulting in a 9.0% increase in pre-tax profits. This growth should continue with full year sales forecasts unchanged and with the number of Moonpig Plus/Greetz Plus subscribers increasing by nearly 400% from 200,000 to 750,000 over the past year. Furthermore, they have a strong cashflow, which is funding both their £25m share buyback program plus an interim dividend of 1.0p.

Following a circa 70% rise in the shareprice over the past year there is some inevitable profit taking this morning. No position here yet but this remains on my watchlist as a stock with good forward capital growth potential.

[harry_david] 10/12/2024 07:23

Terrible figures and no explanation
I guess nobody cares.

[yump] 24/11/2024 10:38

You pay for convenience and customisation. Same with Prime and thats just for instant gratification, not just convenience, plus you pay £100 a year for that.

Our close family has 4 females and 2 males. Only the women use Moonpig, probably because they have social media and mobile addiction issues.

Point about Guernsey is interesting. That is a theoretical risk. The gifts come from all over the place though. I’d be very surprised if Guernsey shot themselves in the foot, or allowed our gov to mess with their exports. There are a lot of vested UK interests in Guernsey, not unrelated to some politicians and high level public “servants̶1;.

Also imo price-sensitivity is not a major issue here, so passing on increased costs may not be either.

[julietzed] 23/11/2024 13:41

Just found that the plane costs without staff, fuel etc are just over 1.75m. That's more than GP made in profit last year. 3 pilots is another 0.5m at least. Fuel costs are going to be about 2.5m to 3m. Plus at least 2m for overheads and other costs. 80% of that's around £5.5m that GP has to find on profit of around £1m. Given we are most the post, then I can see this costing us and just remember that GP will want to make a profit on the post. Over a 10% hit to the high profits of last year, even without import duty.

[julietzed] 23/11/2024 13:26

So, have a couple of concerns here not around sales but around the costs for the business.

First of all, we have a single-point-of-failure for the entire business model with the mail plane. From the reports, we and FP make up the majority of the mail from Guernsey, and the mail provider have been looking for partners for a while now and it all seems a bit desperate. Jersey seem to be saying it is very unlikely and yet that's the news hitting the public domain, so it doesn't appear there are other realistic partners in the mix. Let's be honest, it is going to be hard to find someone to stump up 80% of the plane bill even if they were importing into the island. It's just not that big a place.

We could see a ferry-only service, and that would destroy this business, but I doubt it. More likely it will cost more for us, though. We've been getting a free lunch for sometime, and now we'll have to pay something of a bill. Either through actually contributing towards the costs as we are the biggest party to benefit from it or a static charge on mail inbound to the uk. There's 5 months to go tiktok. GP aren't that profitable, so I can't see them being able to cover all the cost.

Also, there's growing pressure from UK-based retailers to have import duty charged on big retailers exploiting the loophole meant for personal use. The EU are doing it and so are the US. I just think that once the Shien IPO happens or collapses that this government will do that. We're talking about duties on gifts not cards, but still likely to be a cost in the multiple of millions.

Final concern is that RM will keep putting up prices, and we will probably see some sort of environmental tax. This is going to hit us harder as every order we sell is posted. Everything in a singular package.

On the positive side, the business is being run fairly well, making strides in the premium segment, even if I think the cards are frankly a rip-off. I guess most the customers have the male-gene and so pay the convenience premium ;). I buy around 40 cards a year and only 1 or 2 from here even though I'm in.

Final-final point, that the buybacks are being done with share price quite high. Could it be that management want to touch up the EPS for future years as margins reduce?

[yump] 05/11/2024 13:51

I guess the buyback program is a known known. Surely there must be something more constructive to do with the capital?

[stockhunters] 05/11/2024 08:48

mooning again

[yump] 16/10/2024 13:07

Theres no other posters so no worries !

I think Card is probably having to play catchup with their online offering.

A bit like online clothing playing catchup with ASOS 10+ years ago.

[dennisbergkamp] 16/10/2024 12:08

So I’ve used card to buy online - similar to moon, or customisable too so find it odd that it’s languishing. But don’t want to x-pollute here, so I’ll leave it there

D

[dennisbergkamp] 16/10/2024 10:33

Thoughts on card?
D

[yump] 16/10/2024 09:02

All the chatter about the motley collection of random businesses in the Hut group, but all those folk could have just bought Moon earlier and sat back and waited.

[yump] 14/10/2024 17:32

Silence is golden

[yump] 30/7/2024 08:33

Meanwhile complete silence on a sustained rise that would usually cause Advfn users to go crazy

[yump] 22/7/2024 14:05

The annual membership is a kind of gifting-as-a-service model. Once you get into recurring revenues the value of the business and its rating should rise.

I don’t know if EU countries have anything similar but if they haven’t, then there’s a big opportunity. Greetz seems to be going well.