Moonpig Share Discussion Threads

[yump] 14/12/2021 19:59

Such a well known business and a handful of posters !

Obviously no good for trading.

[yump] 10/12/2021 17:00

That buying looks like it was results-guessing, based on not really understanding that it was very unlikely to produce some sort of sudden surprise. I'll have some more anywhere between 300-325p.

Full year will contain Christmas and Valentines of course, but plenty of time before that.

Just for reference the last complete year that wasn't distorted by Covid or Greetz being part of the group was the year to April 2020, which showed massive seasonality, not surprisingly:

6 months to Oct 2019: £66mln revenue
Full year to April 2020: £173mln revenue.

Given that seasonality, the £140mln for the first half just reported and the guidance of £270-280mln for the full year, seem inconsistent.

The £140mln covers a not-particularly-locked-down period, so not sure why the full year figure is only double.

I'll go for an upgrade to £320mln + at some point after Christmas.

[yump] 09/12/2021 08:49

Its dropped because it floated on the back of covid bonus figures.

I presume the net debt is because of expansion and investment.

Imo the problem is figuring out when is a good time to buy more for the future.

Not many online businesses with an established model that have as much to go at in their market.

I imagine this will drop back a bit between now and full year.

[masurenguy] 09/12/2021 08:11

Hi yump, but they stated/implied that in their last trading update in September too. All still to prove here as far as I'm concerned. The shareprice is down by circa 25% over the past 6 months and net debt has trebled over the same period.

[yump] 09/12/2021 08:03

Oh and customer purchase frequency actually IS elevated.

Given that the pe rating must be at least 30 for this year, any permanent share price rise presumably reflects what quality is being given to the business and its prospects.

Be very surprised if it got past 400 though.

[yump] 09/12/2021 08:00

Masurenguy

You missed out that revenue is now expected to be at top end of forecast.

Revenue figures are not down as much as forecast.

A drop was expected compared to lockdown year.

Retention is good from the burst of extra customers from lockdown.

Still leaves it on a high rating.

[babbler] 09/12/2021 07:53

With revenue more than doubling over the past two years, we are confident that we have achieved an enduring transformation in the scale of our business. The long-term opportunity remains vast, and we have never been in a better position to capture this growth

[masurenguy] 09/12/2021 07:22

Some 10 weeks ago their trading update stated "Trading in the year to date has been strong. Frequency remains elevated". These interims really do not appear to correlate with that view !
As previously stated in July, it is on my watchlist but still no position here as yet.

Interims

Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA down 8.5% and 15.1% year-on-year respectively, reflecting lapping of periods of severe Covid-19 related lockdown restrictions.

Adjusted EBITDA margin rate of 24.5% (FY21: 25.0%), consistent with the Group's medium-term target range of approximately 24.0% to 25.0%.

Operating cash conversion of 38% (H1 FY21: 62%), reflecting working capital seasonality and the unwind of high year-end creditor balances related to trading through lockdown.

[yump] 07/12/2021 15:48

I wonder what else is left online, that still has a massive market to go at...?

Done clothes, shoes, fashion, electricals etc.

[capitol2] 07/12/2021 15:37

Gdr share wording in rns previous
Monday on. New. High speed. Covid. test news expected in days.

[yump] 07/12/2021 15:36

Bit of either gambling or leaking before results on 9th.

Annuals last year would have delivered around 18p earnings without all the exceptionals from float costs etc. So this should be a 'clean' half.

On the other hand, they've flagged 270mln revenue for current year, vs 370 last time for the year.

Given they've mentioned increased investment and that revenue drop, I can't imagine what will appear to justify a sudden jump.

If earnings this year drop in proportion to revenue, then around 13-14p leaves the shares on quite a high rating.

Mind you, if the institutions decide its a likely long-term growth winner, they'll probably drive the p/e up to some silly level. Depends also on the quality of earnings and the business itself, which looks pretty good.

Plenty of growth to go at in its marketplace.

[the big fella] 03/11/2021 13:16

Agreed. The chart looks bearish. Aberdeen or whatever they call themselves these days have been building a holding which has fueled the recent rise. Once they stop I see these well below 300. I would certainly be v interested if it reached the recent lows as there was a large Director buy at those levels.

[yump] 03/11/2021 12:56

Difficult to value really - especially with the exceptionals present. I'm taking a 3+ year view - got some around 325, now waiting for the next set of results before doing anything else.

Don't think its likely to fly any time soon, but reckon it depends entirely on what sort of ratings the institutions will give it, which is likely to depend quite a bit on repeat users and customer retention post covid, although there is still a large offline market % to capture.

[the big fella] 03/11/2021 12:37

I use their services and have done for some time. It’s on my watchlist but waiting for a lower entry point.

[yump] 30/10/2021 09:35

.
Bumped this on the assumption that there might be some non-trading investors around at the weekend !

[yump] 29/10/2021 09:16

Well I just spent double what I would normally spend on a relative, simply because the gifts in the local shops are rubbish and I can’t be bothered to go to a big department store.

I hadn’t quite realised the selection range at Moon.

Understandably they’ve had a big boost from people being at home over the last year or so.

However the price may well have discounted that now.

Imo the move to online cards/gifts is irreversible, just like clothing, perhaps more so.

If you look at the ratings of the pure play online retailers, they reached and stayed very high.

With only 20% ish of cards being bought online, this has a way to go and I’m building a decent stake.

Investors often don’t like investment by the business, but imo Moon’s will have a dramatic payback in a year or so.

Probably available closer to 300p again soon by the look of it .

[yump] 22/10/2021 13:07

Surprised there isn’t more interest on this thread. Putting the rating aside, it seems to have the sort of traction to grow a lot, given the size of the market and particularly the small proportion of cards currently bought online.

Plus there’s a much better selection of gifts available than you can get in any physical shop, apart from the big department stores.

Early days in the conversion of offline to online in this category and its partly self-selling to customers - as they say, the receivers become the givers.

[essentialinvestor] 15/10/2021 16:10

Have DOCS on a watchlist fwiw, however if they were to warn on supply chain
issues, increased costs, then near £3 a share, or even under may be available -
at some point DOCS might become interesting due to brand strength, cash generation.

[yump] 15/10/2021 16:06

Thanks for the pointers - I'd only seen DOCS.

Yes, this was way overrated imo. Remains to be seen what the figures will look like without the exceptionals in the current year.

Its a bizarre business rating stocks. Some for no obvious reason keep their high ratings after float. Some just tank.

Boohoo had a dreadful time after float and then hey presto. Hoping this will follow a similar path and the big bonus I think is that its not a "me-too" stock.

Loads followed ASOS, but they are all "me-too" stocks.

Gear4music was relatively unique as well. Easy to miss them if you look when they float and decide they are much too high, unless you're watching the market all the time.

[essentialinvestor] 15/10/2021 15:57

MOON, MADE and DOCS, all IPO'd recently, all 3 look to have similar looking charts.


Those who sold shares in the listing did very nicely indeed.

[yump] 15/10/2021 15:52

Surprised there's no posters. After all a lot must use MOON.

I just spend about twice as much as I would offline on sending a card + present to someone.

and compared to clothes and shoes, there's no returns unless your chocolate turns up mouldy.

[yump] 15/10/2021 12:40

Well worth a read for research:



Key takeaway:
"The UK online channel is worth £140m (representing 10.3% of card revenue
by value) and is growing rapidly at 16%pa as share migrates from offline"

In the Netherlands its only 5%, presumably why MOON bought Greetz.