Mony Share Discussion Threads

[aeonflux] 25/7/2023 15:16

Moneysupermarket.com (LSE:MONY) Group PLC’s shares have been rattled by a double downgrade by UBS sending shares 4.4% lower at 264.40p.

The Swiss bank cited four main reasons for the move to sell from buy:

1) with shares up around 45% year-to-date, the group is now trading at a premium to other online marketplace peers, after adjusting for medium term growth expectations;

2) it does not expect energy switching volumes to recover to their prior peak;

3) it sees downside risks to consensus 8% revenue growth in 2024 given tough comparatives in insurance and soft trends in money;

4) it believes long term profit growth (exenergy) is likely to be limited.

The broker also cut its price target to 260p from 275p.

[disc0dave45] 24/7/2023 17:51

Any forecasts?, I've got 17p eps, with a decent rating of 15x and a target price of 255 to 260. So seems to be ahead of itself IMO.

[farnesbarnes] 24/7/2023 10:58

I reasonably looking at a 310 short term target based on that chart pattern over the last 3 months.

[spud] 24/7/2023 07:47

Great results with virtually every metric showing improvement.A 3% dividend increase isn't to be sniffed at either.spud

[18bt] 24/7/2023 06:35

Interims look good progress. "The continued strategic progress and measures we are taking to drive growth, gives the Board confidence the Group will be towards the upper end of market expectations for the year." Happy with that - EPS should edge towards 16p and look likes there is room for upgrades given the upward pressure on insurance rates - a lot of people are in for a shock on their car insurance.

[18bt] 20/7/2023 14:32

And similar from WTW:

’Motorists are facing the sharpest acceleration in premium rates,’ says UK head of P&C pricing

Car insurance premiums rose by a record-breaking 18% (£119) in Q2 2023, the latest Car Insurance Price Index from Confused.com and Willis Towers Watson (WTW) has revealed.

In a statement released yesterday (19 July 2023), the firms revealed that the previous fastest quarterly rise recorded by the index was in the second quarter of 2010, when prices rose by 12%.


It;s worth looking at the share price chart from 2010 - the share price rose from c63p to c200p in 3 years....

[18bt] 13/7/2023 14:42

More people shopping around I think:

Car Insurance

Pearson Ham has warned of “drastic impacts” to premiums as it revealed that motor insurance prices increased month-on-month in the second quarter of 2023.

In a statement released yesterday (12 July 2023), the pricing consultancy said car insurance prices rose by over 14% between April and June, with price increases taking place every month.

It added that price increases over the year resulted in the most competitive car insurance prices now being almost 30% higher than last year.

These are the largest increases Pearson Ham has seen since it began measuring in 2019.

Home insurance

The firm obtained the figures using its latest quarterly insurance price index for Q2 2023.

It also found combined buildings and contents home insurance premiums grew by around 21% compared to last year, accelerated by a 7.6% increase in Q2 2023.

Speaking about price rises in both the home and motor sector, Stephen Kennedy, insurance pricing director at Pearson Ham, said: “The reasons behind this significant increase are due to the soaring cost of claims, but pricing growth of almost a third will undoubtedly intensify the level of scrutiny applied to insurers.

“Especially as indicators suggest that the trend of rising premiums will continue, at least in the short term.”

[18bt] 19/6/2023 08:57

Got some motor and household insurance quotes over the weekend and decided to test MONY against CTM. Interestingly, for the same insurers, MONY was £5-7 cheaper - which probably means that CTM are charging the insurers that amount more per case. But I'll certainly use MONY in the future and any shareholders should encourage others to do so.

[spud] 18/6/2023 19:04

Obviously everyone has sold out. Shame, as these probably have the legs to double over the next couple of years imo (if they're not taken out before). spud

[spud] 16/6/2023 14:24

Still storming ahead - Capital gain and a 4.5% yield!spud

[18bt] 25/5/2023 07:10

OFGEM announcement will hopefully be good for MONY:


Ofgem hopes 'competitive fixed price' energy deals will return

The situation in the energy market is improving and cheaper deals could soon return, Ofgem chief executive Jonathan Brearley said.

He told BBC Radio 4's Today programme:

What we are seeing though is going back sort of five, six, seven, eight months ago, where we saw the international prices were 10, 15 times their normal price, we are seeing things normalise, we are seeing things stabilise.

And we are very hopeful that we will start to see the competitive fixed price deals re-enter the market. And if we see that, then customers will get a better deal than the price cap.

So we have faced the biggest energy shock in our history, but things are improving.

[brucie5] 05/5/2023 19:18

Yes. Bought some today.

[petersinthemarket] 05/5/2023 17:16

I swear I can hear an echo - is there anyone here?

[petersinthemarket] 05/5/2023 11:17

I'm really surprised the share price hasn't reacted positively today.
RB/NT said he was a buyer on his site yesterday.

[wba1] 19/4/2023 14:00

18BT; I had missed the Covea numbers. Truly awful although they have always been a bit dodgy, with a tendency to appoint salesmen to senior roles. There is no doubt that the motor market numbers for 2022 will be awful. E&Y guessed at 115% COR last I saw. And I agree with premium inflation helping increase shopping around. I mistook your point as being related to percentage commission. It seems to me that the big difference between retail insurers in 2022 and 2023 results is two things; have they stuffed the reserves in 2020/21 to enable some releases for profit smoothing (DLG and Sabre forgot to, Aviva had done so) and secondly, do they have a wider business base to balance the retail exposure (Aviva have only a small % exposed to retail, DLG have some commercial and other to help but Sabre are monoline). The really interesting thing with insurers is who may follow RSA in exiting the market. The real driver of insurance performance is always capital and the more who exit or reduce exposure the quicker premiums will recover to a sensible level. But all good news for MONY.

[18bt] 18/4/2023 15:11

wba, agree up to a point. But I think the premium inflation leads to increased renewal prices from existing insurers which drives people to try a PCW. Agree that commission is fixed, but traffic numbers are up. Car premium inflation is very real at the moment as evidenced by Direct Line in particular, but unquoted Covea's motor underwriting COR was an amazing (ly bad) 153% though it would "only" have been 127% if "the impact of an impairment of digital intangible assets following updated economic analysis" was excluded. That falgs up a lot of premium inflation to drive traffic.

[spud] 18/4/2023 14:39

You'd be amazed at the number of people who don't faz. Besides, with 1481 posts in 16 years (92 posts per year), this thread isn't likely to be swamped, but by all means do your own research.

spud

[wba1] 18/4/2023 13:33

I agree that MONY will surpass current full year forecast, however the motor insurance revenue is more driven by increased switching due to the ban on dual pricing and falling real wages than because of premium inflation. All aggregators have deals which deliver flat rate commission, although this is neither universal across insurers or within accounts, but where these deals are in place premium inflation becomes irrelevant. It would be interesting to see the detail of the MONY contracts with insurers - but they are not about to publish it.

I am surprised that the response this morning has not been stronger but I guess the board are deliberately managing expectations in order to make for a positive message at half year and full year.

[faz] 18/4/2023 09:11

Funnily enough Spud Advfn provide a readily accesible link to RNS details, so that BB threads arent filled unecessarily.

[spud] 18/4/2023 07:17

Moneysupermarket.com Group PLC 1st Quarter ResultsSource: UK Regulatory (RNS & others)TIDMMONYRNS Number : 4809WMoneysupermarket.com Group PLC18 April 2023Q1 2023 trading updateMoneysupermarket.com Group PLC reports trading results for the quarter ended 31 March 2023Strong trading performance supported by recovery in Insurance and Travel Revenue Q1 2023 Q1 2022 Growth GBPm GBPm % ----------------------------- -------- ------- Insurance 50.6 41.1 23 Money 26.9 24.8 9 Home Services 9.6 9.1 5 Travel 5.4 3.3 63 ----------------------------- -------- -------- ------- Cashback 15.1 14.6 3 ----------------------------- -------- -------- ------- Inter-vertical eliminations (1.2) (0.6) n.m. ----------------------------- -------- -------- ------- Total 106.3 92.3 15 ----------------------------- -------- -------- ------- -- One year after the introduction of the FCA General Insurance pricing regulations which significantly reduced the market in Q1 2022, car has recovered strongly supported by double-digit growth in market switching volumes. Travel insurance also grew with revenue at c.50% above 2019 levels.-- Money growth reflected strong promotional offers in banking, although this was partially offset by the continuing weakness in borrowing conversion, particularly in loans.-- Home Services performance benefitted from attractive mobile offers. Whilst we launched our first fixed energy tariff since October 2021 at the end of March, it was a limited size collective deal that will have no material impact on revenue. We still do not expect a significant energy switching market in 2023. -- Travel grew strongly as the sector continues to recover. -- In Cashback, good growth in travel offset lower activity in other channels amid the weaker consumer spending environment.OutlookThe factors affecting our markets are unchanged from those outlined in our preliminary results in February. The Board continues to be confident of delivering market expectations for the year.Peter Duffy, CEO of Moneysupermarket Group, said:"This is a strong performance led by recovery in Insurance and Travel. Our strategy of making it easier for people to save on more of their bills is going well and means we're helping consumers cope with cost of living pressures.spud

[faz] 18/4/2023 06:54

18BT I agree. Also I expect energy switching to re-start before too long as prices fall