Mobilityone Share Discussion Threads

[bad robot] 22/9/2021 12:49

Strange marked up. I suppose MMs got their pound of flesh. Hopefully, we start rolling.

I am happy with a 1p rise today and hopefully finish blue.

BR
IN BR WE TRUST
RED MERCURY CREW

[dabbler10] 22/9/2021 11:25

Completely agree that he’s doing very well. It also means that he’s less fussed with the current price as no need to sell and currently no need to raise funds through issuing more. All points to long term rise to me, with upside at interims but not to the level that you’d expect elsewhere.

[mattjos] 22/9/2021 11:06

If it were your business, would you be willing to share more of it with others at this stage?

The guy has done amazingly well to get the company to this stage in its development and hang on to his high % of the total shares.
I just don't see that as an issue .. he clearly values the equity as opposed to most other AIM directors who treat it like confetti

[dabbler10] 22/9/2021 10:54

Is the low liquidity holding the share price back maybe? I think that we’ll see decent growth from the interims but potentially tempered by the control still being amongst one or two shareholders.

[capt bligh] 22/9/2021 10:48

Surely its the company who should pay Allenby for a note... and they dont want to. I like this company a lot, and have a shed load but the main problem I think apart from the seller is that the main man has such a huge holding and can do what he wants, never condusive to inst. appreciation IMV

[royalalbert] 21/9/2021 21:56

Thanks for the reply, know that you were in DKL presume you still are, good RNS there today.

[mattjos] 21/9/2021 21:36

no idea. I don't generally even try to find out who or why. It's life & the markets .. there are times when folk just need to sell & often the quickest way to get out is when they can do so at a price that demand is (understandably) strong.

M&M's aren't normally bothered to find a seller when a stock is racing upwards (unless there is reason such as takeover) & are usually willing to sell what they don't even have, as they know they'll squeeze the average punter out during the inevitable swift fallback shortly afterwards & they just look at the sum of their books across all stocks for the year.

so, if someone has a load to sell and given it to broker, the broker knows he can move it quickly at a lower price, where demand exists, than at a higher price.
Don't forget that this traded under 8p for 13 years … at only 18-20p sell price, that's a good return on decent chunk of stock

[royalalbert] 21/9/2021 21:22

Good evening Mattjos, do you have any idea who the seller is?

[mattjos] 21/9/2021 21:16

Over 2007 to 2020, CAGR for key financials as follows:

Revs: 21.3%
Gross Profit: 13.8%
Profit Before Tax: 8.0%

Using those growth metrics, FY21 would see:

Revs: £299.2m
Gross Profit: £14.74m
Profit Before Tax: £2.44m

Current Mkt Cap: £20.7m

Less than 10x forward Profit before Tax is plain daft for Fintech growth company.

I think the market is struggling (hopelessly) to know what sort of forward multiple to put on earnings and therefore what is a realistic valuation for the company.
The global Fintech sector is awash with growth companies trading in the 40x to 120x forward earnings (& more) region but, MBO sits at less than 10x forward.
This is plain wrong & unlike many, many others in the sector, MBO is both profitable & not founded 6 months ago!

I see Allenby as the main culprit. They have never (since IPO) issued any coverage on this company. Nothing, nada, zero, jack-diddly, nil.
They do of course issue multiple notes on other AIM clients who are seeking the next fundraising.

& the really stupid thing is every time the price has a sharp run up, Allenby very obviously steer the company to issue a "We know of no reason...." RNS

Unless & until Allenby issue some sort of guidance - a detailed, well researched piece of analysis with accompanying peer-group comparison metrics to 'help' the market reach a proper valuation target, it's going to be down to a few PI's to do the maths and make their own investment decisions. Unfortunately most AIM punters think a T20 contract is a long-term investment!

'Professionals' like Allenby remain aloof and dismissive of PI's and seem to consider PI's as ignorant, annoying and not worthy of their time - many are but, PI's are the main source of trading volumes on AIM & there are plenty of successful long-term PI's who put 7-figure sums to work in AIM every day of the week ie. it only takes a few of those investors to make a determined investment in a company like MBO & the free-float will evaporate.

When a seller does appear and depresses this sort of company down at such a paltry level, you just have to buy it as best you can while the opportunity presents itself - in the bigger picture, it won't last long before it's gone and you'll be struggling to get a online price for any sensible number of shares - the M&M's will just lock folk out.

The current seller and lack of 'Professional' research are both combining to give an excellent long-term investment opportunity, imo.
On an average sector peer-group rating, this should be trading well over £1.. I don't doubt MBO will get there but, in typical AIM form, most of that gain will probably occur in about 3 crazy trading sessions.

[markth126] 21/9/2021 18:18

The ones who have cut their losses are pure gamblers and not investors so good riddance. I've been here and added throughout the rise and fall so got a nice average and holding for at least 3 years like all my investments. If you don't you are just plain gambling. Think mattjos comments today were spot on and the gross profit for 1year and the cash in the bank covers the entire market cap, massively undervalued and got to be a target bolt on for someone. Could do with a nice (overdue) brokers report!!

[bad robot] 21/9/2021 18:09

Some people may have thought that's the case. By let's not worry about folks who are out. It looks like two loads of 25k shs, taking on the excess in auction bidding.

I think the day we close blue, then we may rally for a few days. Best to forget about. The next RNS will come out for the ones who got impaled last time at 35p-40p. I suspect many have cut their losses.

BR
IN BR WE TRUST
RED MERCURY CREW

[homebrewruss] 21/9/2021 16:34

was there much risk of suspension though?
Results timings followed the same pattern as last year

[davydoo] 21/9/2021 15:49

I thought this would rise on the risk of suspension receding. Roll on the interims which many of us had flagged as more significant since the annual results were largely known

[wanobi] 21/9/2021 12:43

love it KS :-) cheers Wan :-)

still plenty of stock about though,,, grrrrr!!!! :-) LOL

[fozzie] 21/9/2021 12:39

Great posts Matt as always, much appreciated.

[bad robot] 21/9/2021 12:34

I suspect they sold at a loss. Most probably were buying above 23p too. If we do close blue, it could be a reversal.


BR
IN BR WE TRUST
RED MERCURY CREW

[mattjos] 21/9/2021 12:32

This 'sell on the results' crowd are being absolutely idiotic / don't understand the business or the true worth of the shares they hold.
This company is growing like topsy & has further growth 'kickers' in the pipeline.
Patience is all that is required and to buy on days like this

[bad robot] 21/9/2021 12:13

Thanks, K for putting this in a layperson term. Much appreciated.

BR
IN BR WE TRUST
RED MERCURY CREW

[king suarez] 21/9/2021 12:11

Or, if you want to get more technical:

2020 current assets less current liabilities = £2.6m (£10.5m minus £7.9m)
2019 current assets less current liabilities = £0.9m (£10.6m minus £9.7m)

Almost as if the £1.6m profit has 'magically' improved the liquid assets balance sheet position exactly :)

/end accountancy nerding

[bad robot] 21/9/2021 12:09

We could close neutral today. However, some were expected no financial results and possibly suspension, so they sold out.


The result is out now, so I think buyers should come as such risks have disappeared. Many were chasing this at 30p+.



BR
IN BR WE TRUST
RED MERCURY CREW

[someuwin] 21/9/2021 12:03

Cash balance £4.42m (no change YoY)
Debt £3.2m (down from £3.43m YoY)

So in real terms they are actually £230k better off for the year.

[wanobi] 21/9/2021 11:57

great clarity in that post Mj, many thanx, Cheers Wan :-)

[mattjos] 21/9/2021 11:48

Mkt Cap £19.1m

Cash & Cash equivalents £4.42m

The 'Business' is on sale for £14.68m

The 'Business' is turning over £246m and creating £12.9m Gross Profit

This is much too cheap

[mattjos] 21/9/2021 10:16

Very happy with those results.

Management detail the KPI's they are focussed on.

I also look at:

Op. Profit as a % of Revs
Profit Before Tax as % of Revs

This is a 'clipping' business. Many transactions & tiny amount 'clipped' from each transaction.

Obviously the main way the business is going to grow is by driving up its Revs but, I also want to see a trend of the Operating Profit & the Profit before Tax growing when expressed as a % of those Revenues, as an indicator that they are managing to increase the amount they 'clip' from those transactions and keep a tight control of the costs.

In this regard the trend continues in its improving trajectory

Op. Profit as % of Revs for 2020 is up 24.78% YonY
Profit Before Tax as % of Revs for 2020 is up 43.14% YonY

[kevph] 21/9/2021 08:25

Agreed. Comfort in audited results, but the future will be the catalyst