Mj Gleeson Share Discussion Threads

[disc0dave45] 17/12/2022 11:00

New 52 week low and now looking ridiculously undervalued IMO.A key demand area for them is the North East which has seen increased house prices:Https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/uk-house-prices-north-east-25692216?int_source=amp_continue_reading&int_medium=amp&int_campaign=continue_reading_button#amp-readmore-target

[cerrito] 12/12/2022 08:27

I see that SRC in their TU this morning refer to softening of demand in lower end housing which I assume means the segment that GLE operates in.
No surprise that in the very recent Vox Markets podcast Christopher Mills v positive on GLE.

[disc0dave45] 01/12/2022 14:22

A snippet from Mortgage Advice Bureau's Trading update this morning, the Truss mini budget really hit them, but"The reduction in mortgage activity and new house sales is expected to persist until early 2023, after which activity levels are expected to start to slowly build."

[disc0dave45] 28/11/2022 14:10

FBSorry can't see anything on your previous poor attempt to justify your number plucked from thin air.Most TA is subjective and as posted support at 340 and circa 300.How about on fundamentals?In 2013: eps 19p (FY23e is 3.7x greater), Rev £60.6m, (FY23e is 6.7x greater), net profit £5.2m (FY23e is 8.2x greater), NAV/sh 212p (currently 420p)...could go on but tbh can't be bothered, your 200p had zero credibility the other week and nothings changed.

[essentialinvestor] 27/11/2022 14:54

£2 a share would seem very low outside of rapidly worsening sector conditions
and a huge hit to profitability.

Q1 usually the strongest for sector SP's and Q4 the weakest.

[farnesbarnes] 26/11/2022 12:59

Plucking numbers eh? fb reiterates 200p.

[disc0dave45] 25/11/2022 19:03

Berenberg cuts to 470 (from 710) retains buy.The mind boggles, clearly pluck numbers from thin air......but gets their clients in hopefully.

[disc0dave45] 23/11/2022 16:29

Five year mortgage rates falling and back below 6% at 5.95%. Yes still higher than last year (2.5%) but what did folks really expect with inflation running at 10%+. IMO HB's are dirt cheap at the moment and rates will continue to fall as / when inflation does.

[essentialinvestor] 18/11/2022 18:59

ghh, that will be evident on the next set of updates. Vistry update in January.

CRST mentions FY result within the guided range, that's what the market listened to. As mentioned my take is 2023 gets tougher for CRST. Good fortune with your holding.

[essentialinvestor] 18/11/2022 15:04

That's why I said reasonable, rather than use another term.

As mentioned previously lows for this sector are usually seen during very weak
trading, may be this cycle will be different and there is one aspect that
may help this time around - much lower rates of unemployment than often seen
during recessions.

Margins are also key to profitability and until recently HPI offset higher
building costs, may be more difficult during 2023.

[ghhghh] 18/11/2022 14:57

ES

But Crest said

18-week SPOW rate to 31st October 2022 of 0.55 with weaker trading in recent weeks, reflecting the increased economic uncertainty

They did not clarify weaker trading, Gleeson did to some extent

[essentialinvestor] 18/11/2022 14:43

An agree to disagree folks.

CRST update today looks reasonable, 2023 may be a bit tougher.

VTY interesting provided the CEO has called the potential in the partnership
business correctly.


I expected some wider equity market give back this week and that has not happened!.

[disc0dave45] 18/11/2022 14:20

Gaps to fill: todays opening gap, the gap 27th Sept (457p), the gap 22nd Aug (500p), 2nd Aug (523p)

[disc0dave45] 18/11/2022 14:17

Sorry can't see anything. Most TA is subjective and as posted support at 340 and circa 300.How about on fundamentals?, also why would you hold a stock where the BoD are liars and deceitful?. Do you still hold?.In 2013: eps 19p (FY23e is 3.7x greater), Rev £60.6m, (FY23e is 6.7x greater), net profit £5.2m (FY23e is 8.2x greater), NAV/sh 212p (currently 420p)...could go on but tbh can't be bothered, your 200p has zero credibility IMO.

[farnesbarnes] 18/11/2022 14:09

200p reasoning here:

[farnesbarnes] 18/11/2022 14:06

ghhghh

Yes granted, it is a different model to WJG and others. But if you were a FTB wouldn't you now hold off if the market were to correct by 15% ish? And if you were a lender, wouldn't you be less inclined to loan, or require more equity?

The TU statement is poorly worded. My criticism of the "Far too early" bit is the tone/sentiment. Like investors are wet behind the ears; how on earth could we possibly understand what its going on in the global macro landscape? We should take every BoD utterance at face value?!

[disc0dave45] 18/11/2022 13:56

"Porky pies" is slang for what!Now deceitful : "the action or practice of deceiving someone by concealing or misrepresenting the truth."Not going to carry on tbh, you've not validated anything you've posted which is all I asked.

[ghhghh] 18/11/2022 13:53

FB

"In September..." everything was hunky dory. Record this, well-positioned, profitable growth. Two months later, " volatility and a sharp increase in interest rates".

Do they not model for this? Were they blissfully unaware of rampant inflation over the last 12-18 months since Covid? Did their FD not think interest rates would go up following the material inflation they must have been forking out on with their suppliers...

IT STINKS!!! The TU is pure bluster putting it politely.

You don't understand the business mode, I previously explained that they rely much more on current sales than the forward sales of the big boys. Hence much more vulnerable when the bottom fell out of the mortgage market and first time buyers most affected.

They have modelled for a downturn, look at the GC Statement.

And re your criticism of 'Far too early to call a recovery'! LOL. No one has a clue what demand will be, to what extent house prices fall, whether inflationary pressures are embedded and to what degree etc

This is a ridiculous criticism since they are stating the bleeding obvious

[farnesbarnes] 18/11/2022 13:51

I wouldn't calling it lying, I'd call it deceit.

[disc0dave45] 18/11/2022 13:50

Hi EIFair call on WJG, different beast and haven't read the evidence so can't really comment.Posting up here that the BoD are liars and 200 is likely does not constitute valid opinion, just the complete opposite!.

[farnesbarnes] 18/11/2022 13:49

(How does one post an image please)

200p reasoning here:

[shrout] 18/11/2022 13:43

Paul Scott's current favourite stock. Not sure how much of a recommendation that is..

Also quite a divergence going on between the lows on the relative strength and price charts.. ie higher lows on RS while share price continues to tumble. Could suggest a change of trend is in the offing.. but who knows?

(Edit - I like Paul Scott btw. Just didn't want anybody to think just because it's his favourite stock atm it will necessarily do well from here on in).

[disc0dave45] 18/11/2022 13:39

Agree, only had a quick look, so yes 340 first.