Mining Minerals & Metals Share Discussion Threads

[kvu] 18/2/2003 18:57

Well thats it folks. Mr E. and I feel $128-129 maybe be the top on this. LOL, that must count for something, right? I will go one step further and say it will happen on ..... Thursday. Only joking guys, I am going to wait on the sidelines on this, until tomorrow at least, and see what is cooking up. I think one more explosive move up (straight into the bollies and not past it) with a failure after will definately "confirm the top" for ME.

[energyi] 18/2/2003 18:48

Look at your 6mo. Chart.
Top of Bolly seems best guess: $128-129?

[kvu] 18/2/2003 18:42

That would be a good point to bounce again. I don't mind that happening as along as we go higher next and I get to re-enter the short on this around the $128.43 target zone. Anyone want to guess the top on this, before the next major fall?

[energyi] 18/2/2003 18:37

True,
But id like to see MMM touch that blue line ($126-ish) before the wave5 High

[kvu] 18/2/2003 18:35

E.

I would say that chart in elliot wave terms still has another wave up to go from the five wave action that could have begun at 120.3
Wave 1: 120.33 - 124.43
Wave 2: 124.43 - 122.48 (Nearly 50% retracement of wave one)
Wave 3: 122.48 - 127.45
Wave 4: 127.45 - 124.49
Wave 5: 124.49 - Top at 128.5?? (Incomplete)

Wave 4 generally has a sideways flat correction motion if I have got it right and hence that could be what we are seeing. I would look for a retest of the highs or even a top into the top bolly. I would be so happy if that were to happen.

[energyi] 18/2/2003 18:23

KVU,
You may like this chart:

...
Stalling out here, below $127

[kvu] 18/2/2003 18:14

Looking into the Put Options again for MMM April and July 03. $130 stikes are looking very favourable. Currently the $130 strikes for April 03 are trading around $7.10, I maybe look to come in on a retest of the 127.50 level and start building my position. Have put in an order to buy some at 6.40, may get lucky today.





Will the top bolly get wacked first and then some sideways movement before we get a fall. I would be also looking for a gap fill at 128.50 from last month around the 22nd January before we move down.

[energyi] 18/2/2003 00:14

From ValueLine Report

....... --MMM- -MSFT- --GE-- ---T--
Price.. 125.09. 48.30. 22.48. 17.87
Earns.... 5.25.. 1.87.. 1.51.. 2.70
P/e...... 23.8.. 25.8.. 14.9... 6.6
Rel.PE*.. 1.55.. 1.89.. 1.06.. 0.67
Div.%... 2.11%. 0.17%. 3.38%. 4.20%
Shs.OS.. 390.2. 5379.. 9951.. 770.2
MktCap. 48.81B 259.8B 223.6B 13.76B
LTDebt.. 2,939.. None... 876 20.17B
Date..... 9/02.. 9/02.. 9/02.. 9/02
EV/MC... 1.060. 1.000. 1.004. 2.466
EntVal. 132.62. 48.30. 22.57. 44.06
BookVal. 17.10.. 9.74.. 6.30. 17.45
Pri/BV... 7.32.. 4.96.. 3.57.. 1.02
CF.'02... 7.95.. 1.87.. 1.75.. 8.95
CF.'03... 8.35.. 1.90.. 1.95.. 8.85
EV/CF2.. 16.68. 25.83. 12.90.. 4.92
AR:3BVCF 38.64. 40.72. 31.80.. 7.98

Three of these are particularly expensive,
but MMM's high Price/BookValue of 7.32 is notable
- - -

[scripophilist] 17/2/2003 21:26

From a fundamentals viewpoint MMM is one of the most expensive if not the most expensive stock in the DOW. Stocks like MSFT and KO deserve a higher rating because of their profitability. While MMM is no doubt a well run and stable company its valuation is very demanding.

[energyi] 17/2/2003 19:10

Smellberg,
depends on the overall market, I suppose.
See the new Dow thread

[kvu] 17/2/2003 19:06

Energyi,

Thanks for the post. They are very useful to me and I am sure to the others who have begun following this thread. I want to play around in the next couple of days and improve it and begin including some option prices. Hopefully am to be at EE tomorrow/wednesday.

All the best, KVU

[smellberg] 17/2/2003 17:26

Energyi I have been pyramid shorting 3M, do you think it will take out $127?

[energyi] 17/2/2003 17:24

Here's the WEEKLY chart for 3M:

[energyi] 17/2/2003 17:16

Kvu,
I just spent several hours doing an analysis of the Dow30 stocks.
Based on my screening technique, it looks as if 3M is the 5th most
expensive stock:

EXPENSIVE STOCKS:
Sym. Company...... AR:3BvCf .Price.
PG-- Procter&Gamble.. 45.21 $ 83.70
KO-- Coca Cola....... 44.75 $ 40.80
JNJ- Johnson&Johnson. 42.70 $ 51.75
MSFT Microsoft....... 40.72 $ 48.30
MMM- 3M Corp......... 38.64 $125.09
WMT- Walmart......... 36.65 $ 49.15
MRK- Merck........... 34.91 $ 53.91
GE-- General Electric 31.80 $ 22.48
DD-- Dupont.......... 30.88 $ 37.08
. .
CHEAP STOCKS:
Sym. Company...... AR:3BvCf .Price.
T--- AT&T............. 8.04 $ 17.87
GM-- General Motors.. 10.09 $ 33.10
SBC- SBC Corp........ 12.45 $ 23.35
MCD- McDonalds Corp.. 14.38 $ 13.62
HPQ- Hewlett Packard. 17.58 $ 17.58

:MORE on this thread:

[seela] 17/2/2003 12:20

Kiran

Great audio link.

Interesting topic - MMM.

I am tempted to be very bearish on it medium/long term - on the basis that the last shoe must eventually fall.

However, what someone said earlier in this thread gives me pause for thought - i.e. the strength of the shareprice could give rise to conspiracy theories.

If the fabled "plunge protection team", or any cartel, wanted to keep the Dow artificially high, then it would be relatively cheap for them to support just one or two heavily weighted stocks.

The whole way the Dow is calculated is a ludicrous scam anyway - making the market look like it is holding within 25% of the top when, in reality, most of the stocks in the index have actually halved or worse.

Shorting 3m is potentially risking shorting against a pool of money supporting it, and that could easily afford to keep just this one stock strong, even if such a cartel could never hope to keep the other 29 Dow stocks afloat as well.

Having said that, I am very tempted to have a pop short on any strength.




BTW, I have temporarily mislaid your phone number - can you give me a bell?

[energyi] 16/2/2003 16:03

kiran,
You may find this interesting:
1)
Value Line offers free access to their reports on the Dow30 stocks.
Here's the report on MMM:


2)
John Hussman thinks that the most overvalued stocks are "expensive Dow
stocks like 3M" and before this Bear market is over 3M will "get creamed"
because investors will decide to sell everything near the end.
Link:

[goodfella] 01/2/2003 22:16

With the Dow largely dependant on MMM and its massive weighting in the Index it is rather ironic that MMM incorporated in 1929 at the time of the Great Wall Street Crash will be the stock that leads the Dow to its ultimate collapse in the crash of 2003.

When MMM collapses the Dow will follow.

[dolphins] 31/1/2003 13:39

Thanks Kiran.

[dolphins] 30/1/2003 22:06

kvu

Is it possible for you to start a similar thread on the FBB, some of us are
very humble and prefer to reside on the other side. A number of traders I know
are playing this. Please!

[kvu] 30/1/2003 16:01

Updated the charts with, hopefully, better moving averages. Still that gap to be filled on the 10 day chart at the $129 area.

[energyi] 24/1/2003 19:34

..3hour./5min. chart: ... and a 3-day ... and a 5-day

[kvu] 24/1/2003 19:22

Sold APR 03 PUTS @ $7.30 in the anticipation of a bounce from here. 15% return on my investment in 2 days.

[energyi] 24/1/2003 19:12

OPTION VOL. for MMM:
... Time for a Straddle?