Micro Focus Share Discussion Threads

[steeplejack] 29/6/2017 11:37

Excellent performer over recent years.Sizeable reverse takeover which will test management.The jury will be out for sometime leaving the shares vulnerable to shorting and market manipulation and speculation.We need a full set of figures and company comment to get a handle on exactly how things are progressing....so roll on July.

[volsung] 29/6/2017 11:06

Lower trend line at 2275p or so. Be worrying if it went through that for more than a day or so. Haven't heard any bad news or director sales so maybe it was just overvalued. Not my best investment.

[montyhedge] 29/6/2017 09:36

Seems overdone this fall what reason? apart from a bit of manipulation, before figures to get cheaper stock perhaps? All will be revealed 12th July.
I think the hedgies are hoping on flowback, main reason for shares falling, all technical but they can cash in.

[montyhedge] 29/6/2017 08:56

Seems strange why the fall ? Unless those shorting hedgies increasing bets.

[montyhedge] 28/6/2017 13:52

Sogosit
Do you think we will get the dates of our special dividend with the finals on 12th July, or later in the year?

[montyhedge] 27/6/2017 11:52

I see latest, two hedge funds between them are short 3.1m shares, good luck boys buying those back, if these figures are half decent and announcement of dates of special dividend, lol

[montyhedge] 27/6/2017 11:40

Seems small sellers selling, than bang 10,000 bought just now. So hopefully big boys buying, small punters selling.

[montyhedge] 27/6/2017 11:06

ThanksWell if they hit these targets 12th July then Micro Focus very good value.A couple of hedgies still short, let's hope they will be forced to buy back.

[sogoesit] 26/6/2017 14:07

£31 still stands from a while back by end (this financial) year.
Forgotten my basis and can't find my spreadsheet but will have look.

PS: I've checked and the £31 is based on a P/E of 17.5 and attaining a gross margin of 45% for the HPE segment of the business (similar to the MCRO part of the business).
Forex assumed is $1.30/GBP.

[montyhedge] 26/6/2017 13:13

Also calculation for special and normal dividend around £2 with the weak pound for this year.

Do you think also about right Sogosit.

[montyhedge] 26/6/2017 13:04

If Micro can improve margins and we get to $750 at HP, $450 Micro profits.
Total $1.2 billion. Market cap £12 billion, so p.e around 12, back of a beer mat prediction any one else think this is about right.

Sogosit
If I'm in the right area, then these should be £36

Whats your forecasts?

[ringer12] 25/6/2017 11:01

Monty's beating the big drum for Micro!

[volsung] 24/6/2017 13:34

Are you an Orangeman Monty?

[montyhedge] 24/6/2017 11:27

Roll on the 12th July.

[montyhedge] 23/6/2017 18:06

Some big trades came in late afternoon.

[phillis] 23/6/2017 16:16

And so it blathers on

[montyhedge] 23/6/2017 15:42

Interest coming in from the yanks, it must be everyone at Royal Ascot, lol

[montyhedge] 21/6/2017 19:01

Sogosit Yes the holy grail of investing good growth and good growing income.

[sogoesit] 21/6/2017 11:42

Yes, I saw that Monty; thanks.
I don't have cash at present so am waiting patiently.... for MCRO's payout.
Then I will have a bundle to re-invest ;-)

My target on MCRO still around the £29/£31 mark.

Good luck!

[montyhedge] 21/6/2017 11:36

SogositI did flag Kainos to you they are touching new highs, my reason cash return on investment 46%. Just like Micro Focus used to be. Hopefully another Micro in the making, lol.

[montyhedge] 21/6/2017 11:34

If these figures are decent on 12th July and actual date given for special payment, I really think shareprice could push on towards 2800p before payout.

[sogoesit] 21/6/2017 09:50

Of course you get something from an RoC. Whether it's "free" or not is another matter (if everything were in the share price and there was no arbitrage there would be no point in buying anything. For any negotiation to be successful there must be a misalignment of perceptions).

For example I think I get:
- income in the short term (PV of cash has a value higher than the risky future SP);
- flexibility to re-invest that income (either in the same company thereby compounding the capital growth in the long term or in another, better performing, asset);
- the income flow supports the share price in and of itself depending how it is managed and on investors' perceptions of that cash-flow;
- paying income disciplines management to perform much like debt can do.
Not to mention that as a GBP holder I have a play on non-GBP income into the future.

Why would I sell-down and forego any of these opportunities?

[montyhedge] 21/6/2017 08:31

RingerYou say that how many times have we had special payments on Micro, price adjusts, not as much as we think, then goes higher. Your right figures must be half decent on the 12th July though.

[ringer12] 20/6/2017 19:44

What's all this enthusiasm for the return of value.You don,t get anything for nothing as the payout is offset by a reduction in your shares. You could achieve the same result by simply selling some of your shares.

It is whether the next results are good or bad and whether the merger is a success that is the main thing.

Meanwhile good to see the Sp holding up and we can only hope the Tories don't mess the Brexit negotiations up like the general election!

[montyhedge] 20/6/2017 15:56

We want the £ to fall to 1.20 against dollar for our pay out, extra bonus, lol.