Michelmersh Brick Share Discussion Threads

[pugugly] 01/7/2008 13:14

Bodgit:- sorry to hear of your loss - (imo & dyor) I do not think you will loose it all but I suspect you may still see a further significant book loss before we are out of the Construction/Development downturn which might last for several years until residential propty gets basck to a more realistic 3 to 3.5 times earnings.(dyor all cautions etc)

Declaration: I do not hold, have not held but beenon watch list ofr ages - possible entry point substiantilly south of current price 50/58..

[bodgit] 01/7/2008 12:22

Well, I am now +50% underwater on this one. Have confined this one to the bottom drawer for the next few years. Thankfully, I only hold 'a few' as I usually avoid companies with illiquid shares. Got this one wrong then! Hey ho. I'm off.

[ladyfarmer] 16/6/2008 12:04

This company has a problem with (perception of) corporate governance and in my view project an arrogant attitude representative of a privately held rather than publicly quoted company.

Their trading business must suffer with other housebuilding stocks but they are at the top, bespoke end so have some resilience.

Their planning consents and scope for future building on land owned are hard to value (don't think fully reflected in accounts) but must too be negatively impacted in the current climate.

That said, a large part of their value will come from assets which are unquantified but very much appreciating - namely the holes in the ground from which they took clay for bricks, which can be landfilled.

So I remain bullish medium and long term but wish management would start behaving in a more appropriate manner because that is hurting their share price much harder (and wholly avoidably) than economic fundamentals.

[wcjan26] 12/6/2008 17:36

there was a short but very unpleasant article about mbh and their auditor fiasco in the times a couple of days ago. sorry, don't have a link. this is probably the reason it has tanked

[pugugly] 12/6/2008 11:49

wcjan26> Agreed re costs - Any shareholder must be saying a large prayer that they failed in their t/o attempt given the current state of the UK building market.

I must confess I had missed the stock build - The interest on the cash tied up in stocks must be heavy - Could however have paid off given the increase in the cost of fuel

No idea what the line means - Unless the accounts are those of the trading company and the quoted shares are those of th eParent company

SP seems to be falling on minimal volume - I stronly suspect a base should be somewhere south of a 40% discount to NTAV. The last ntav figure I have is REfs for the 06 accoutns of 115p - Given the property markdown in the rest of the UK market and this years losses (ex stock dealing profit) I am not sure what it is now.

i am still calling this lower but have not yet calculated a target

Usual cautions apply DYOR etc - For the record I do not hold, have not held, but it has been on my watch list for several years.

[wcjan26] 04/6/2008 08:39

pugugly

they made a loss after tax any way you look at it.

the figures for the aborted take over look a bit odd to me- how can they have incurred such huge costs for a failed attempt?

the main concern for me though is the inventory figures - now looks to be north of 6 months worth of inventory, and prices are falling. Have they really spent a whole month in the last year building to stock? Or is there some other strange adjustment- I see that there is some stuff about property transfers to inventory? Not sure what that is about


also, what does this throwaway line mean:
"Total recognised income and expense is attributable to the equity holders of the Parent Company."

[pugugly] 04/6/2008 08:12

A quick and dirty look at the accounts reveals they would have been massivly LOSS MAKING without theprofit on Baggerage. I will need to do more work on the accounts to try and adjust (unless someone can beat me to it) but if we take the apparent net profit on Baggeridge of some £1.1 million we could be looking at a loss in the region of £700K.

Can an accountant please double check to ensure I am in the right ballpark
e&oe

[steven1404] 27/5/2008 11:59

phoned them up it is due out on the 4 th june lets hope it is worth waiting for

[steven1404] 26/5/2008 12:39

yes they are leaving it to the last min

[bodgit] 26/5/2008 12:31

Not much left of May for the results. Off on my holis so will miss the fun(?) but look forward to the substantial rise in share price Hmmmm, somehow methinks not but good luck all anyway.

[ed 123] 24/4/2008 08:59

Agree in principle, but I suppose it depends on the detail of the wording in the option. Also, if they don't need the cash it's perhaps better to wait for a stronger land market (in a couple of years?).

The results will revalue the land, but I wonder how resilient that figure will be in the face of a housing slowdown?

Additional evidence re slowdown (eg. 50% drop in mortgage approvals) supports the notion that fewer bricks will be needed. Long term should be OK but short term the combination of higher gas prices and lower output (while still having to cover fixed costs) suggests a significant profit fall.

I hope I'm misjudging this (for any shareholders who are reading) and the share price drop must account for some (all?) of this.

[alan russell] 24/4/2008 08:31

Persimmon's comments in today's trading statement about delaying the start of new sites look ominous. There is little incentive for them to go ahead with the Telford option at the terms specified. An attempt to re-negotiate seems highly likely.

[alan russell] 18/4/2008 14:34

Today's statement is somewhat reassuring - at least trading is no worse than the market is assuming. The direction of the price for the remainder of this year would appear to lie with the Persimmon deal. If it goes through as agreed then +ve. If they renegotiate a lower price who knows?

[bodgit] 31/3/2008 14:54

Results three weeks later than previously they suggested? I expect less than good news about Persimmon and even less good news about the state of the brick market and their costs. At least that way I can only be pleasantly surprised. Good luck all.

[ed 123] 31/3/2008 09:37

It looks like the results will be a tale of two parts. The combination of high energy costs and low brick demand will be a concern. Happily, they failed to win the takeover battle for Baggeridge. I'll be interested to see the value they put on their land - but presumably that will be under downward pressure too. Not the happiest of times, but the recent fall in the shareprice reflects this.

[alan russell] 31/3/2008 08:49

31 March 2008
Michelmersh Brick Holdings PLC
Trading Statement and Notice of results

Michelmersh Brick Holdings plc (AIM: MBH) (the "Company"), the specialist brick,
land development and landfill company, is completing preparation of its 2007
accounts under IFRS for the first time and announces that it will report its
preliminary results for the 12 months to 31 December 2007 on 22 April 2008.

The Company's stated accounting policies require that its assets are subject to
a full independent valuation every two years. The revaluation as at 31 December
2007 will show a significantly higher overall value in land assets than had been
previously expected. This will, however, also result in a correspondingly higher
depreciation and impairment charge against the trading businesses.

>>>>>>
Results delayed until 22/4.

[pugugly] 20/2/2008 13:54

New 12 month low - Property prices being called significantly lower - No more 125% mortgages - Most bulders down 4% - 5% today.

For MBH a double whammy - Fewer bricks required and possibly a hit on the expected revenue from the building land. dividend at 113p only 1.21% and according to refs ntav was 115p based on 06 acounts.

(imo & dyor) very much a back burner job with minimal divicend support. No rush for family to sell - a nice little income earner though directors fees etc. (imo & dyor)

[alan russell] 04/2/2008 08:48

Ooops......market conditions deteriorating.....

4 February 2008
Michelmersh Brick Holdings plc
Close Period Statement

Michelmersh Brick Holdings plc ("Michelmersh") (AIM: MBH) the specialist brick, land development and landfill company, announces that its preliminary announcement of results for the year to 31 December 2007 will be made on Tuesday 8 April 2008.

The results, which will include the profit achieved on the investment made in Baggeridge Brick, are expected to be in line with current market forecasts.

Trading in 2008 remains satisfactory. While industry demand for brick products has reduced due to wet weather conditions and a slowdown in the house building market, Michelmersh has benefited from significant increases in landfill rates and from the continuing appreciation of its property assets.

[bodgit] 15/1/2008 21:27

Half Year results 12th Sept 07 state:

'Persimmon is now in the public consultation phase in relation to the development of the land at our Telford site. The application is for development of 80 acres, rather than the 60 acres we had previously stated, which, if granted, will provide for 1,000 homes. The planning application will be submitted in the next few weeks.'

I have looked through all the planning applications for Telford and can see no application to date. Correct me please if I am wrong. If there really has been no application, then the definition of 'in the next few weeks' is being stretched quite a bit! FWIW, my guess is Persimmon are not in any hurry and we will have to whistle a while longer yet. Hope I am wrong and we get positive news soon - or a statement on progress from the company on what is happening.

Good luck all.

NIA, DYOR etc.

[bodgit] 20/12/2007 10:06

alan russell, no sign of it. If the reports of house price declines, slowing neww build enquiries (sales?)etc are correct - and there is probably fire as well as smoke, then I wonder if Persimmon are in any hurry? Presumably they have an option to acquire - subject to planning - at an agreed price though happy to be corrected on this point. Would / could Persimmon renegotiate the terms? No idea.

What impact might higher gas prices and slowing construction have on MBH? Probably relatively little and am happy to hold and possibly acquire at around current levels. Good luck all and happy Christmas etc. to all. May 2008 be an interesting year - for good reasons though please!

[alan russell] 20/12/2007 09:26

Any sign of that planning application Bodgit?

BTW recent falls in the share price mean it is back on, or just below, the trendline set by the very regular series of higher lows. So if this pattern is to continue the price should scamper up to the mid 130's over the next couple of weeks. On the other hand, it might not.

[bodgit] 21/11/2007 09:06

Interims 12th Sept said this about Telford site:

'The planning application will be submitted in the next few weeks'. Still no sign of it.

Begs the question of what operational definition 'a few' has!

MBH holding up remarkably well in a nervous market. Good luck all.