Michelmersh Brick Share Discussion Threads

[envirovision] 09/4/2011 17:39

MBH have really been through a transformation in the last year, so I have started a fresh thread with some up to date information and links for MBH at :

everyone welcome

[steven1404] 09/4/2011 12:09

not overlooked some of us did pay 80p for the shares and at least it is climbing up again

[envirovision] 09/4/2011 11:39

I have started a fresh thread with some up to date information and links at :

everyone welcome

[cjohn] 08/4/2011 10:24

Blimey Staurt, the North is not all whippets and jellied eels!

I've picked up a moderate-sized holding of these at 32p a few months ago and couldn't resist doubling up at 24p.

[stuart little] 05/4/2011 14:27

I don't hold any shares here, only have an interest as I'm in the trade. With this in mind I'll only make a couple of passing comments.....good news about the sales being ahead of budget but.....'the potentially lucrative North market'????

For MBH products??? I'll not go there....

Good luck all,

stuart.

[cwa1] 05/4/2011 09:48

Good Morning All

Just a quick one to say that I joined your merry band this morning with a few on the back of the announcement. Fingers crossed and good luck to all holders.

[envirovision] 05/4/2011 09:43

Upwards for many months? Yes Ptolemy, I can quite see that.

[ptolemy] 05/4/2011 09:27

enviro,
In your graph above, that looks like a classic contracting triangle in a B-wave position (following a three move up A-wave). From a technical perspective, the next move should be upwards for many months.

[envirovision] 05/4/2011 07:43

Well done stuart, you were bang on.

Trading Update

Michelmersh is pleased to report that orders, sales and production of brick products in the first quarter of 2011 were ahead of budget and the Board is encouraged for the prospects for 2011.

[envirovision] 29/3/2011 08:51

never the less still plenty of sellers all over this though.

[envirovision] 15/3/2011 10:30

Thanks Stuart.

[alter ego] 15/3/2011 10:13

useful stuart - thanks for taking time to post

[stuart little] 15/3/2011 10:12

Had a meeting recently with a member of staff from MBH. Seemed upbeat about the future having seen an upturn in the market recently. From my experience working within the building industry I agree although not sure if the reason everyone is busy is because of lack of man power....only needed a slight upturn as too many people have been laid off. MBH had some cash flow issues about a year ago but they had extracted £2m worth of clay which left them a bit low of reserves. All sorted now apparently......

They are continuing with landfill which will hopefully lead to more sales of land to house builders/developers, although over a 2 year period.

Freshfield Lane are doing really well and currently on 6 - 8 Weeks availabilty which shows the strength of their sales....some of the other niche products, Charnwood for instance, are still struggling though. This is an £800/1000 product when the industry standard is closer to £300/1000 so difficult to move any volume in the current market.

They are looking at regions of the UK where they are not too strong and trying to come up with strategies to stengthen their hand, opening a stock yard in the North has been mentioned....

All in all it seemed they are being proactive in both the landfill and brick sales and even looking for further aquisitions should the right ones emerge....

This is my interpretation of a conversation so all imo......no advice intended.

stuart.

[envirovision] 12/3/2011 10:20

OK so this sell off is simply weak holders or its part of some kind of behind the scenes "bad news" since a company like this will easily leak bad news via its workforce as well as through its customers, like a bucket full of holes does.



The long term picture shows a falling wedge formation to support line.

....So which is it?

[cjohn] 31/12/2010 14:32

On the balance sheet 22m in net debt. This should have come down since the last report as further asset sales from the acquisition are realised.

[alanrussell] 13/12/2010 17:20

The option price was at about £1.2m per acre (MBH to bear the cost of clearing the land). At present I would put the value of the land with planning permission at about £400,000 pa. In negotiations between large and small companies the main question the investor must ask is "who wants the deal more?". That would be MBH; it makes little difference to PSM if the deal falls through. On the other hand developers/builders just hate walking away from a deal once they have put the time, effort and money into obtaining planning permission. So I figure about £500,000 less £100,000 preparing the land, £400,000 pa.

On the plus side if the increased site is at the same density as the initial phase then the enlarged site for around 1,200 homes equates to about 114 acres. Therefore the value of the whole deal is about £45m albeit spread over a considerable number of years. Judging from the shape of the deal as mentioned in the September RNS it may be that we will never be able to assess its value accurately.

For a company with a market cap of about £18m this is clearly a very big deal. So very roughly £45m less liabilities of say £30m = £15m values the remainder of the company at about £3m. Accordingly if the sale goes through at the above numbers we are looking at a company making about £1m pa (assuming no interest or exceptionals; this should increase as FLB contributes a full year) however as the sale to PSM approaches its conclusion presumably revenue from the site will cease. This is not expensive although equally not risk free (and then some).

What do you think? Perhaps someone who knows more about these things than I do (that's most of you BTW) would comment on whether my guesstimate of liabilities is in the right ballpark.

[ed 123] 13/12/2010 14:54

Agree.

Don't have any figures to hand but, even if land prices are holding up, I would expect Persimmon to be using the falling house price scenario to negotiate downwards.

I'm holding here due to the asset backing.

If things get very difficult there's always the 'Weinerberger Put' - but Eric would have to swallow his pride to go that route.

[alanrussell] 13/12/2010 14:30

15th April 2010
After some four years in the system, Persimmon, assisted by the Michelmersh
team, has achieved detailed planning consent for 170 units on 16 of the 85 acres zoned for residential development at Telford and we are finalising the Section 106 agreement. On conclusion, expected during the second half of this year, we will receive payment from Persimmon for this first tranche of land which will be applied to reducing indebtedness.

20th May 2010
We are now in final discussions with Persimmon regarding the land with planning
permission, the optioned land and also for the remainder of the site at Telford.

9th August 2010 trading update – no mention

29th September 2010
We are now also in advanced discussions with Persimmon on the disposal of our
land at Telford with an expectation of agreeing an extended comprehensive long
term deal. The agreement will provide an initial cash payment and a profit share
of the eventual enlarged scheme, including further surplus land at Telford,
which will provide a site for a total of around 1,200 homes

You would have thought that this would be wrapped up by now. On the "bad numbers take longer to add up" principle it is hard to be optimistic.

[davidosh] 03/11/2010 14:10

A piece sent out by a TMF writer....

[shanklin] 03/11/2010 07:38

Q3 statement from Wienerberger



Includes:

"Higher revenues and earnings in North-West Europe

The countries in North-West Europe, with the exception of the Netherlands, recorded higher revenues and earnings in the third quarter. The turnaround continued in Great Britain, but from a very low level. New residential construction in France developed somewhat better than expected at the beginning of the year, and largely offset the weather-related weak first quarter earnings. Revenues in this segment for the period from July to September totaled € 191.2 million (+5%) and operating EBITDA € 36.8 million (+53% over 2009)."

[ed 123] 19/10/2010 10:41

Thanks, davidosh. :-)

Good write-ups.

[davidosh] 19/10/2010 10:11

There is a write up and follow up to last nights presentation here...

[stuart little] 13/10/2010 16:41

www.mbhplc.co.uk

New website launched today.......

stuart.