Mice Group Share Discussion Threads

[scburbs] 03/5/2006 08:51

Results 17th May, two weeks today.

[qalbabbass] 02/5/2006 15:51

surely that was a 1m buy @36p.

Q

[rivaldo] 02/5/2006 11:16

Ticking up on the bid, with a nice small spread too. The latest broker forecasts show how cheap this stock is assuming forecasts are met:

2006 2007
Broker Date Rec Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p)
KBC Peel Hunt Ltd 25-04-06 BUY 8.70 3.67 0.75 9.70 3.88 0.85
Evolution Securities Ltd 07-04-06 BUY 8.80 3.70 1.00 9.80 4.10 1.10

[lekka] 29/4/2006 16:50

TTNY .. my earlier post (1514) seems to set the same mid term target

"All of which gives me confidence that we are about (final results day) to see a breakout to the mid 50's..."

All based on Fundies, TA and IMHO regards

L

[thistimenextyear] 29/4/2006 15:52

JUST A REMINDER FOR ANY NEW OR POTENTIAL INVESTORS (of an earlier post of mine) which summarises things at MICE just before the results on Wed 17th May.

Be interested to hear what other investors on this site have to say about the MICE Group (epic code MEG). Here are my thoughts:

So finally the MICE turnaround story has started with the share price taking off! I think actual turnaround in the company has been taking place for the last year through its rationalisation programme. Recently the share price has risen from its all-time low at 26p to 40p, and now retraced a little and stabilised at 36p. Institutions have been buying in aggressively with big buys most days, often 1p above the offer price driving up the share price Very Strong TA signals. Recently a EVO buy note, with a target price of 48p.

My current short-term target is 50p, which I think will be achieved easily, with a medium term target of 70p. Long term £1. If you are looking for an excellent recovery play - look no further IMHO!

What attracted me originally to the MICE group back in November last year was on fundamentals - when the companies rationalisation programme is completed in 6 months (18 month programme - 12 months in) - the company will be delivering revenues of approx £200m, with a net profit of say between £7-£9m. Considering the fact that market cap was only £44.7m back then, that equated to a P/E ratio of approx 5-6. At current share price of 36p, the P/E ratio is just under 10. Considering the average in the media/business services sectors are approx 15-20 I could see the potential. Then you have a guaranteed dividend on top of the growth story.

A little info about the company -

The MICE Group is an intergrated marketing services company with a truly global presence, with 150 of the Fortune 500 customers as clients.

Looking forward .... the problem historically has been through many aquisitions over the previous years this company had created high levels of debt, which through interest payments was affecting the cashflow, and the company poorly controlled its working capital.

A £24.7m fund raising was completed in March 2005 (34p share price open offer and placing), which has significantly reduced the debt levels.

The financial years 2005/6 and 2006/7 are pivotal in refocusing the Group both operationally and financially after the fund raising in March 2005. The company has embarked on an 18 month period of consolidation, of which we are now 12 months into. In the first six months of this rationalisation programme, the company has made good progress with the first phase of the rationalisation process nearing completion. In this period, the company has reduced management and manpower where appropriate, consolidated, closed or integrated poor performing businesses, exited from disadvantageous contracts and focused on overall working capital management. This has led to a positive swing in cash flow in the first half and improvements in working capital. These initiatives will continue. This will allow the company to move forward as a cash generative and highly focused integrated marketing services business.

In the first half results we saw an exception cost of £3m for the rationalisation programme. A further £3m is budgeted for in the second half (which ends 28th Feb 2006), but after this the company does not anticipate any further costs associated with this.

The costs incurred during the half year comprise the initial repositioning of underperforming businesses in Germany, the reorganisation to create an integrated print offer within the UK Division, the streamlining of businesses under defined and accountable leadership teams and the costs associated with the reduction in corporate overheads.

Costs to be incurred during the remainder of the year (to 28th Feb 2006) will fully cover the repositioning of the International Division, complete the programme within the UK Division and allow for the reorganisation of US businesses to maximise capacity utilisation.

The recent launch of 'Fusion', the integrated selling model, will be an important driver of future organic growth. This new initiative has already gained momentum with some excellent new client project wins. The company expects further progress in the second half of the year as it seeks to strengthen and extend our services and relationships with current clients. Significant potential opportunities exist within our relationships with 150 of the Fortune 500 companies.

Therefore,if the company through these actions can streamline the business, improve cashflow, working capital; continue to reduce debt, whilst still organically growing the business I believe this share will represent an excellent recovery play for 2006/2007.

The most recent results (Nov 2005) showed
- Positive operating cash flow and working capital improvements
- Strong order book
- Group turnover up 7.4% to £99.3m (2004: £92.4m)
- Profit from operations (pre-exceptionals) at £4.7m (2004: £4.8m)
- Profit before tax (pre-exceptionals) at £3.1m (2004: £3.3m)
which wasn't bad considering the rationalisation programme taking place, with £3m exceptional cost & the fact that for the International division a significant Xerox project which falls bi-annually was delayed, now secured for April 2006 period.

Growth in working capital has been minimised by the continuing improvements in underlying debtor and creditor management together with the renegotiation of contracts to provide better funding profiles.

Stabilisation of cash flow has been a key priority and in this regard considerable progress has been made. In the period, cash generated by operations was £3.2m compared to an outflow of £6.0m last year. It is expected that this trend will continue, making further improvements.

Net debt at the end of the first half was £38.2m compared to £49.0m at the end of the comparable period last year and £56.7m at the year end. It is expected to see the £38.2m current debt level further reduced going forward.

The boards priorities in the second half (ending 28th Feb 2006) are on cash management, further debt reduction and organic growth. Next results due 17th May.


Note, that EVO have a BUY note out now with a target price of 48p. In their note they stated :

QUOTE
Our key take away from our meeting with management yesterday (6th Feb) was of group that has in place a strategy to provide a coherent marketing services offering across the International and North American divisions. The UK division is now better focused on its core design and building offering for retail, exhibitions, conferences and education and health.

The year just ending was a challenging year for the International division as action was taken to address underperforming businesses in the UK and Germany and from a revenue perspective with the delay to a major Xerox project; now to be delivered in April. The view ahead is more confident with a range of significant business prospects visible and confidence in the depth and strength of client relationships.

In North America, the group is moving from a base in conferences and exhibitions to drive up the value chain with clients, assisted by cross selling from the International division's existing strong relationships. We speculate that the distinction between the International division's positioning and that of North America will blur as the business models converge.

North America is having the usual strong seasonal delivery of conference and exhibition business. We expect the development of a broader marketing services offering, particularly in communications, to have the effect of reducing the seasonal skew. The division has matured considerably this year as new client wins have seen the start-up operations mature and capacity utilisation management improved.

With the UK division now a better integrated unit and action being taken to improve the contract mix, we see the opportunity for some margin improvement in that unit in the year ahead.

We are making no changes to numbers. The current ratings of P/E 7.4x and 6.5x for this year and next, suggest that the market has so far missed the progress being made and the opportunity ahead. We see significant upside from here. Buy. Strategy is progressing.

Our meeting with MICE's management yesterday added to our confidence that management has in place a coherent strategy that will deliver improving margins. The mantra of cash management continues to resonant.
UNQUOTE


MICE have also recently won some excellent industry awards, which can't be a bad thing.

Please note, that as year end was on 28th Feb. Currently in closed period to prelims which will be delivered in just under 3 weeks on 17th May.

One needs to ensure that the recovery that we believe is now firmly in place is actually verified in this statement. I obviously believe it will be through my investment actions, and so does EVO and the institutions currently agressively buying. However, always more reassuring to see it in black & white.

Also, from a TA perspective, you can see on the chart that we may get a little resistance around the 43-44p level. If it breaks that, IMHO I think it will move very quickly up to 55p and beyond.

Current Market cap £63m, Revenue £190m, No of shares 175m
Current SP=36p. Year ends on 28th Feb. Next results - the prelims expected 21 May. I can see share price between 50-70p by the time of the next results in May.

2006 2007
Broker Date Rec Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p)
KBC Peel Hunt Ltd 25-04-06 BUY 8.70 3.67 0.75 9.70 3.88 0.85
Evolution Securities Ltd 07-04-06 BUY 8.80 3.70 1.00 9.80 4.10 1.10

Please note that I have a number of open positions on MEG at 29p, 33p and 35p.

Be interested to hear others views and personal share price targets for this share.

All the best & have a great bank holiday weekend,
TTNY

[besbury] 28/4/2006 17:23

+ 2x600k @ 36

[qalbabbass] 28/4/2006 15:35

500k @ 36p

[qalbabbass] 28/4/2006 12:34

If we see some more buying, like todays 50k, this should easily go past 40p barrier. A thing to note is that there have been quite a few sells recently yet the MMs did not tick the price down. However with this 50k buy its gone up, its teeling the MMs are bullish on this.

AIMSO

Q

[besbury] 26/4/2006 11:11

Being at the mid point suggests a buy, but you never know! There have been a few like this recently.

[qalbabbass] 26/4/2006 11:01

Anyone kow what that 100k trade was?

Q

[besbury] 19/4/2006 16:42

Another 250k "T" at the mid to end the day on a high note.

[rivaldo] 19/4/2006 10:10

Now we know who's buying...MEG has a new major shareholder:


"The Company was notified on 13 April 2006 by Platinum Investment Trust Plc that it has a notifiable interest in 5,750,000 ordinary shares of 4p each in the Company ('Ordinary Shares'), representing approximately 3.271 per cent. of the issued Ordinary Share capital."

Looks like they've got a good record - and also they have an activist philosophy - could be some corporate action afoot maybe?


"Platinum will carry out a thorough investigation into each company before making an investment with a view to identifying opportunities where a pro-active approach could secure improved returns."

"Following the initial investment selection, Platinum will carry out detailed research, including a detailed financial review, an assessment of the target company's position in its markets and a review of the previous record, capabilities and attitude of the management.

Subject to such extensive research, the Company may then become a shareholder in the selected company. Platinum will approach the board, including the non-executive directors, of investee companies with proposals as to how the identified problems can be tackled in ways to enhance shareholder value. Platinum will not become involved in the day to day management or seek to control the investee companies, but will look for constructive responses to its proposals. By the effective use of shareholder rights, the Company intends to act as a catalyst for positive change, for example, by encouraging corporate activity or pursuing board changes if it believes this to be in the interests of shareholders in such investee companies generally."

[besbury] 19/4/2006 10:09

Could this be our friendly mopper-upper?

Holding in Company


The Company was notified on 13 April 2006 by Platinum Investment Trust Plc that
it has a notifiable interest in 5,750,000 ordinary shares of 4p each in the
Company ("Ordinary Shares"), representing approximately 3.271 per cent. of the
issued Ordinary Share capital.



19 April 2006

[qalbabbass] 19/4/2006 08:52

a nice tick up there,

Q

[stealth12] 18/4/2006 17:01

Certainly was, we must see a tick up sortly.

[besbury] 18/4/2006 16:33

Our friendly mopper-upper was around to tidy up at the end of the day.

[this_is_me] 15/4/2006 10:37

On the other hand the point and figure chart shows a downward trend and a target of 25.75, which is also approximately a tripple bottom support level.

You pays your money and takes your choice! I sold last month.

[lekka] 14/4/2006 14:19

Sorry to butt in but wanted to give an (simple-minded) opinion.

We've seen the large buys (institutions etc) and the SPI plough in well before any real confirmation of the 'blue skies' ahead scenario. More recently we saw sells by the SPI's who were impatient for a profit or had other fish to fry! The recent 500k deals seem to be a rollover by a longterm T trader.

A chartist would draw attention to the cossing of the 50 day ma over the 200 day ma when the latter was moving upward (a golden cross?).

(edit) Consistent end of day large buys!

All of which gives me confidence that we are about (final results day) to see a breakout to the mid 50's...

....colours nailed to the mast!regards

L

[boadicea] 13/4/2006 14:53

Very quiet!
At least the small selling has dried up and the base now looks much firmer for a new leg up.
Anticipation of the finals (20 trading days) should start shortly after the Easter break.

[boadicea] 12/4/2006 17:23

Two large (500k) trades this afternoon with a small margin between them. I think we have to assume they offset each other. Another holdings RNS seems likely soon - perhaps two, one for the buyer and one for the seller.

[boadicea] 12/4/2006 09:51

excalibar - I'm in two minds about it falling lower.
I'm watching to sell some of the overhyped energy and commodity stocks and perhaps to add to these, but not yet if they'll be cheaper tomorrow (or next week).
Two difficult decisions - When to jump off the commodity bandwagon and what to land on!

[excalibar] 10/4/2006 17:26

well noticed boadicea - these will not fall any lower especially as AXA have bought a stake at this price

[boadicea] 10/4/2006 17:17

...and there's the T-buy of 250K at 36p (shown as a sell but nevertheless giving the mm a nice profit having bought them at 35p.)
Posted very late - hoping it wouldn't get noticed?

[boadicea] 10/4/2006 12:07

I suspect it's a case of show the 308k sell to encourage the faint-hearts to sell also, keep a large T-buy for later and give it a good shake. We shall see in due course.

[Abuse team] 07/4/2006 20:16

Post removed by ADVFN