Mereo Biopharma Share Discussion Threads

[petersinthemarket] 08/11/2006 11:36

>>remynapoleon - 7 Nov'06 - 1631 of 1642 - Nice balanced view.

Dont mistake me, I certainly dont rule out fundamentals. I never buy seriously speculative shares, or high-risk recovery shares. I only ever buy shares with solid fundamentals.

However, my trading activities tend towards medium term momentum buying. So in addition to fundamentals, I must see a reasonably encouraging rising share price trend, over say 6mths to 3yrs.

If possible, I attempt to time entry, which for me generally means buying when an share price falls back near to its 200MA.

Similarly, I try to time my exit, but for this tricky matter I often just rely on waiting for my target minimum 15% rise, and then quit at or soon after.

I have a short list of suitable shares on which I attempt this system, with mixed but modest success.

I admit I find selling at the right time much more difficult than buying. I often miss my ideal sell point, however much I concentrate, so I sometimes have to stay in longer than I intended.

I'd be interested to know if anyone else has a consistantly used system of some sort for short medium term trading.

Whilst not interested in day trading, I regret I dont have the patience of Warren Buffet, or MPH holders!

Best of luck all,
PIM

[wbjunior] 08/11/2006 11:33

he he ok just incase your right, off now talk later bye.........wbj

[tuftymatt] 08/11/2006 11:26

Stick with the Spam WBJ just in case......LOL

[wbjunior] 08/11/2006 11:22

Lex good write up as usual, I am out for dinner now so may miss any action..lol, but on the point of YSL revenue split, I believe that the interims last year were turnover 15.7 million of which 75% YSL thats 11.8 million. The burning question is if the revenue this Interim is 40 million plus how much of it is YSL. I recon no more that 17 million therefore 23 million for others. If I am in the right ball park that would equate to around 50 million without YSL for the year. ie 16.5 eps, we shall see, have a good day everyone, I may have Chicken for dinner, beef to expensive at the momment...........wbj

[argy2] 08/11/2006 10:39

City will need to see sustained growth and earnings quality to forgive MM his somewhar suspect past. But assuming MPH can deliver that then a re-rating will eventually come. If not, then no doubt MM could arrange a MBO or sell his virtual controlling stake to a predator, assuming they would want MPH without him.

[lex1000] 08/11/2006 10:22

Market waiting on results and evidential proof can see with own eyes as to how far company has come in replacing YSL revenues.Market has been tough on MPH, no benefit of doubt & share price heavily discounted on revenues which currently include YSL.Market will believe it when they see it.There is substance in statement about traders selling the swings making money.I would never knock anyone who banks profits & publicly posted thoughts about banking (some) profits when share price hit 25p (125p) months ago.Thereby reducing average buying price,consider buy back cheaper possible @ 90p, and or invest some elsewhere spreading money across different sector(s). Buy supports and sell at resistances.No guarantee I know but hopefully significant director buying, points to confidence that company has,can and is doing what they say and everything is as it seems.You wouldn't bet your house on it but worth small speculation buying support @ 100p.Yes there have been better investments oilies & metals etc etc on the other hand have been some much much worse. Pays your money and makes your choices. Investing and speculation is ultimately for each individual to decide.Easy for anyone to post here & now using hindsight,however, there are many common sense issues. Balance of views always welcome on thread in helping keep constant review of portfolio and investment decisions. Long term investors buying global growth story 2007 onwards post YSL. There is a case for watching results and waiting for confirmation of share price breakout.Based on what is in the public domain MPH should be trading much higher but the jury is out.

On the plus MPH has held strong support @ 100p & company paying dividends. All things being equal after long period of consolidation potential coiled spring whoosh factor, however, if MPH disappoints then possible for share price to go down.My bet is up could be wrong.Time will tell.aimvho.

[wbjunior] 08/11/2006 08:44

Point taken Tufty , I will do exactly what you suggest soon hopefully, best wishes..........................wbj

[tuftymatt] 08/11/2006 01:42

WBJ,

I never get anything to shout about in my stocking and it's only ever cheap rubbish so I guess MPH would fit right in there......LOL

Stay lucky my friend and all I ask is that you think about your large exposure to what we all agree is a share that makes you laugh one day and cry the next.

[wbjunior] 07/11/2006 22:51

tuftymatt,
My dear friend, as with most things in life, money very quickly changes sentiment. Some very good inputs of late from everyone all with differing points of view, must agree with MPH beiong a manic depressive at times though, lol, keep well and fill yer Christmas stocking with MPH shares................................wbj

Ps Off to bed far to late at my age !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[tuftymatt] 07/11/2006 22:26

WBJ,

I think your post makes a lot of sense but you have missed out the important point with MPH and thats market sentiment.

[wbjunior] 07/11/2006 22:20

Guys, at the end of the day the earning's potential will move the share price. IF one savings account offers 10% and the other 5% its the 10%, all being equal that will attract the money, lets keep it simple MPH's performance will find its market level, which imho is way above todays price. We are confronted with a diversity of opinions on the company even if all things were great there will always be those that state the end is near, look at the Performance, value the business and stay with it if the business performs in line with your projections. At the present time MPH is doing just that, hold and add on the dips.............................wbj

[tuftymatt] 07/11/2006 22:15

Let me tell you who is right and who is wrong when it comes to MPH.

Anyone holding and in profit is right and anyone holding at a loss has got it wrong......LOL

[taffychaff] 07/11/2006 20:53

oil was $78 and the 'market was right'...not much has changed ...so why is it $59?

[taffychaff] 07/11/2006 20:51

'market always right'

agree rem.........legen say at 150p...according to some 'market is right'...but to make money does that tell me the price is going up or down.

none of the above.

dow was 10800 and has risen 200 points..so what was it doing at 10800 if it was right?

[remynapoleon] 07/11/2006 20:06

petersinthemarket

In the short term the market will always rule which is why I do not day trade.

I, unlike many who are successful at that kind of investing, have never been clever enough to call a high or a low. I wish I did have a crystal ball or accurate tea leaves but I don't, so the only way I manage to make money is by relying on research and fundamental information. For this I must believe what the directors say and read balance sheets, trading statements etc.

You write that "Anyone buying over the last few days would now be facing the PROBABILITY of losing money". I think the word you were looking for is POSSIBILITY but even in the short term, thursdays buyers, fridays buyers and indeed some of yesterdays and todays buyers could or may still be in profit.

I strongly suggest that with patience they will remain in profit and indeed over the coming months increase their profit handsomely but this is only if they believe, as I do, that the fundamental information is correct and the Directors are telling the truth.

Eventually the market will follow.

remynapoleon

[petersinthemarket] 07/11/2006 20:00

>>''taffee - 7 Nov'06 - 1629 of 1629 - ...warren buffet obviously buys stocks when no-one else wants them and holds until the market(which was clearly wrong)catches up....''

Excellent response taffee! There's always an exception if you look hard enough.

But back on planet earth: I know MPH investors are also legendary for their patience - but really! In for a lifetime!

Is that really how long most of us are prepared to wait?
PIM

[taffychaff] 07/11/2006 19:23

actually the greatest investor in the world warren buffet obviously buys stocks when no-one else wants them and holds until the market(which was clearly wrong)catches up.

[gumberr] 07/11/2006 19:11

Larmertree - 7 Nov'06 - 19:03 - 1627 of 1629 Filtered

Lambchops filtered for not having a sense of humour!!!

[larmertree] 07/11/2006 19:03

Good post Peters, rule no.1 is engraved on my heart and has stood the test of time, also I often remind myself that the market does not care what I think or if the price is fair.
Prices often move for reasons that are complex and not necessarily relevant to the underlying business.
Sentiment is what moves prices and the most obvious indicator of that is the price and trend generated by the market (see rule 1).

[taffychaff] 07/11/2006 18:57

but that saying doesn't mean anything.

If we just had to 'follow the market' then everyone would be rich.

In hindsight we would all buy dow stocks 5 months ago,but at the time the 'market was telling us' that we were back in a bear market

At the moment 'the market is telling us' all is amazingly rosy' apart from the fact a correction is around the corner.

what was the market telling us when this was 12p?

[petersinthemarket] 07/11/2006 18:08

>>''I think the only sure way to make money is to believe what the company and its representatives state and act on that''

Sorry to be contrary, but this simply is not true.

The rules:
1-The market rules, ok
2-If in doubt see rule 1.

Anyone who believed the companys view over the last 6mths (at least) would have made no money at all.

Anyone buying over the last few days would now be facing the probability of losing money.

I genuinely hope it all works out right in the end, but life is unfortunately a lot more complicated than blind faith in any companys public statements.

Best of luck to all holders.
PIM

[kneath] 07/11/2006 18:04

wbj - Thanks for reply re: day-trading books enquiry. Guess I'll just have to lose it all slowly!

[dan de lion] 07/11/2006 17:11

According to the FT Boateng is looking to the H of L for a ruling as to wether he can take MPH on on another matter.

They also mentioned the ending of the YSL contract(like they do), but, to their credit they also pointed out that YSL will no longer be supplying the likes of John Lewis, Debenhams etc leaving the coast clear for MPH with Ungaro & JCC!

[larmertree] 07/11/2006 15:44

Gumber

Oh yes very funny...... do you remember writing this

"I must admit people make posts without doing any research which involves just reading simple RNS's."

"I remember reading similar drivel on the BATM board when clearly in RNS's" blah blah ignorant blah.

"The results day will be a summary of recent RNS's so will be great for peeps who don't understand simple English!!"

Who the hell do you think you are?

And I suppose your most recent post is not drivel?