Medusa Share Discussion Threads

[bushtuckaman] 21/12/2022 00:40

Relisting on AIM might not be a bad move to attract a bit more interest. It was delisted from London as a cost saving measure way back when, I think they can afford it now again!!

[polaris] 20/12/2022 11:10

Hi Glavey,

Actually i would argue the complete opposite. The activists only have a leg to stand on because of inaction by the company and board. Apathy and inaction breed discontent.

There are currently 228odd M shares in circulation. Start a buyback to bring that down to 220 M shares. The average daily volume is under 100 k and so this would take a few months. However, it will take out some stale holders and make the activists think about what their goals are. 8 M shares will not change much in terms of the power of the activists. Look at the vote stats. The buyback takes a small part of the existing cash-pile but sends a bigger signal that board have some interest in releasing shareholder value. If that were to happen then i think any activists will look to take out the company before people realise the hidden value.

Bear in mind that without the cap-ex spend on Tiger Way, X64 would be hugely profitable... they are anyway with that spend but people often miss the obvious. The fact that X64 can spend $50+ M on a project to realise long-term access to a productive mine, from cash generation from ops, is a rare beast indeed.

All of that value isn't reflected in the SP, as most 'investors' nowadays just look at top level metrics, declared profit and EPS, on which X64 does badly due to accounting for the acquisition costs in FY22 figures and not realising some $25+ M in revenues and $17 M in pre-tax profits from not selling gold produced in the fiscal period (down to a certain ex-CEO...) Oh, and the stonking cash-pile to market cap contribution!

The HY figures will be an interesting read. How much of the backlog will be put through the books and how much rolled forward to future fiscal periods? That unsold gold has to be sold at some point. It is an asset on the balance sheet but not seen in the reporting period figures. It is all in the NAV, not that anyone looks at that - they should!

No-one looks forward either to the situation we will have once Tiger Way is completed, in late 2024. All mine levels will be accessible by the decline, de-bottlenecking the mine haulage, a long-term issue. Not only that, the plant operates at about 50% nameplate capacity, due to the haulage issues. X64 can become a 150 k oz producer (monthly run-rate normalised) from the single mine by the end 2024. Decline will decrease AISCs and drilling will continue to highlight high grades at depth. The decline just makes economic mining a reality to level 20+. Look at the production profile for the last 10 years. The mine is a steady producer.

2023 will be very interesting, as i expect value to become more apparent and that to lead to a play on the company. Rising gold prices, falling AISCs, buyback, stonking cash-pile and better PR could see X64 3-5x multi-bag, IMO. Then again, i seem to be in a minority of one in seeing this!

[geckotheglorious] 19/12/2022 10:22

The Board should start courting one of the majors and sell up.
Only way we will ever see some positivity here.

[glavey] 19/12/2022 06:24

"Why don’t the board pull their fingers out and restart the buyback."

How about because it will increase the influence of the activists.

[polaris] 13/12/2022 14:53

X64 have over A$110 M in the bank, cf. market cap of near A$125 M, the EV is under A$15 M. FY23 projections of well over 80 k oz gold at $1320-1370 AISC. pog is going up and nicely back into the $1800s.

Use some of that cash pile to buy back shares for cancellation at these silly prices. It is by far the best return for all concerned. FFS board, do your job and prioritise shareholder returns, as you stated you would in the address at the AGM.

The share price here is the most absurd thing i've seen in well over a decade in PM companies. The projected cash generation for FY23 alone is a multiple of the current EV of the entire company. The company NAV is over double the current market cap.

DOES. NOT. COMPUTE.

It appears nothing is moving X64!

[polaris] 09/12/2022 09:56

Hardly worth the announcement IMO. Why don't the board pull their fingers out and restart the buyback. There are many stale holders out there and I am sure the AUS asset holders will be looking to cash in at first opportunity now they failed in the boardroom coup.

[c9ajl] 09/12/2022 07:05

SCOUT DRILLING PROGRESS AT SCOTTIES CREEK PROJECT, QUEENSLANDHttps://uploads-ssl.webflow.com/625624dea6f87c59c23b175d/6392b7d1d98bb9e53f7f4658_221209_monteaglescoutdrillingupdate.pdf

[glavey] 25/11/2022 06:26

Fly in the ointment is of greater concern.

[polaris] 24/11/2022 07:09

All AGM actions passed that were not withdrawn prior to meeting, including the remuneration report. All I'll say there is McGlinn better deliver, given his salary and pension rights. I still believe it is excessive. Dr Kate George has some work to do!

[polaris] 24/11/2022 07:05

Interesting that AGM presentation labels the recent action as activist investors trying to gain control of company without paying all shareholders the premium. I don't think that is over quite yet. With US$80 M on the books, X64 remains a juicy fruit, given market cap and production stats. That is without the potential of Tiger Way and Oz assets.

[polaris] 16/11/2022 06:46

Let's hope the new non exec chair does her job with respect to corporate remuneration. The announcement of the withdrawal of the LTI for McGlinn is a start. Match pay with performance against well defined criteria.

[polaris] 10/11/2022 23:33

Not sure what to make of the non-exec chair announcement. Means Mcglinn will transition to MD. Still do not agree with his proposed salary package. AGM in a few weeks.

[polaris] 04/11/2022 08:48

Some fun and games during trading session today. Someone collapsed the order book down to net cash value of the company, followed by recovery to almost net neutral. Someone got taken to cleaners and someone made a nice profit.

[polaris] 31/10/2022 07:46

Qly out. Lower gold production led to higher AISC. This was part of mine plan for year, with FY production and cost guidance maintained.

[polaris] 27/10/2022 16:24

Ah, i see. No, IG did not give me the opportunity to vote either way. It's a good question. I should approach them to find out what my rights, if any, are in this situation. As IG balance the long and short side then I expect any single person's holding is moot so we don't have voting rights. Anyone out there get to vote when holding CFDs?

[glavey] 27/10/2022 16:10

"At AGM there is an item for voting for the remuneration report. We can vote against it."

Actually I was asking if you were able to vote against it. (I think you said you held via IG earlier.)


A buyback would only be likely to act to strengthen Welker's position, so I'm not sure it's a great idea just now. Or if it ever was. The vote rather seems to have hinged around a lot of people doing nothing, a matter which doesn't seem to have escaped the board's notice in the days leading up to the GM. Probably not the attackers either, not earlier and certainly not following. I'd go as far as to suggest it may have been all part of the masterplan from the outset. I think the dust needs to be allowed to settle, or get swept away.

[polaris] 26/10/2022 11:46

There are 228 M shares in issue. Only some of those voted today. 44-45% of a total of less than 2/3 of shares in issue is well below 50%. The opposition have a strong voice, but 20 M of those shares come from the acquisition of assets in Oz. The vote is a strong indicator that some leadership is required or change will be enforced. Clock ticking.

[kimboy2] 26/10/2022 10:43

It wouldn't need much of a buyback to put the opposition in control.

Perhaps have a special dividend.

[polaris] 26/10/2022 08:49

What gets to me is that it is so easy to bring value to the shareholders. A buyback here is definitely EPS positive, due to sheer size of the cash pile wrt market cap. Add in a stated dividend policy and defined aims for Tiger Way against progress and you have recipe for sustained success.

[polaris] 26/10/2022 08:21

The results put the board on watch. It was close to success. I'd expect the AGM to be lively and there to be a large vote against remuneration report. It is time for X64 board to step up and deliver value to shareholders.

[c9ajl] 26/10/2022 06:41

RESULTS OF SECTION 249F MEETINGHttps://uploads-ssl.webflow.com/625624dea6f87c59c23b175d/63589c4583fb34807e144e4b_221026_249fgeneralmeetingresults.pdf

[polaris] 25/10/2022 13:03

Proxy meeting will go ahead tomorrow after resolution of how the meeting will be run via courts. The results will be quite telling, even if current board is not removed, the number of votes against are a barometer.

[polaris] 25/10/2022 08:20

At AGM there is an item for voting for the remuneration report. We can vote against it. It's been quiet on the proxy war front too. I'd expect the Qly to drop sometime in next week. There will be news, if not blood!

[glavey] 25/10/2022 04:10

Are you able to vote against?