Medusa Share Discussion Threads

[polaris] 28/4/2022 10:02

Table II updated in the mineral reserve and resource update. It was omitted from the original.

[polaris] 22/4/2022 09:39

Apart from the assets bought in Queensland and the likely pivot towards progressing those. X64 is fine by me, as long as they deliver a sane strategy. Medusa Mining has baggage associated...Teo for one and he isn't even there anymore.

[geckotheglorious] 22/4/2022 09:32

Couldn't they have chosen something better?

10-64 limited doesnt give any indication of what the company does.

How about Mindanao Gold? Far more appropriate. Tells you what the company does and where it is located.

And how much did the idiot that dreamed this new name up get paid?

[c9ajl] 22/4/2022 08:39

Name Change from Medusa Mining Ltd to "TEN SIXTY FOUR LIMNITED"Https://www.medusamining.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/Name-Change-from-Medusa-Mining-Ltd-to-Ten-Sixty-Four-Limited.pdf

[c9ajl] 19/4/2022 08:53

Annual 2022 Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves Update StatementHttps://www.medusamining.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/220419_annualmineralresourceandorereservestatement.pdf

[c9ajl] 14/4/2022 07:17

Investor Presentation April 2022Https://www.medusamining.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/220414_investorpresentationapril2022.pdf

[polaris] 14/4/2022 02:18

New investor presentation on the website.

[c9ajl] 12/4/2022 03:31

1064 Drummond Basin Exploration Drilling ProgramHttps://www.medusamining.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/221204_-1064-Drummond-Basin-Exploration-Drilling-Program.pdf

[cp42kx07] 01/4/2022 16:46

This looks positive. Let's hope that 10-64 ("message for delivery") means that other investors may start to appreciate the under-valuation here.

I certainly hope it isn't a case of "crime in progress" (the APCO 10-64 code). Bizarrely in Norfolk VA 10-64 apparently means "eating"... Donut anyone?

I'm also keen on a TSX listing but can't believe that I'm still holding here after all these years../ perhaps a case of 10-56 ("intoxicated investor" ;-) ).

GLTA

[polaris] 01/4/2022 09:11

It's clear now that the old guard are out and the new guard are in. Change of name will clear decks. If they get the Queensland prospects moving forward then expect a dual listing to result. I like the news as it suggests a proactive leadership team. MML has been sleepy for too long.

[kimboy2] 01/4/2022 07:20

On first reading I thought the word was 'unhinged' but on second reading it was 'unhedged'. The rest of the blurb convinced me I was right first time.

Is there a reason they are not doing share buy backs?

[c9ajl] 01/4/2022 07:17

NOTICE OF EXTRAORDINARY GENERAL MEETINGChange of Company NameHttps://www.medusamining.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/220401_noticeofextraordinarygeneralmeeting.pdf

[deka1] 25/3/2022 11:01

IP Survey Underway at Drummond Basin
 Induced Polarisation (“IP”) geophysical survey is underway at Monteagle
 The IP geophysical survey will firm up planned drilling locations at Monteagle
Medusa Mining Limited (“Medusa”; or the “Company”;) (ASX:MML) is pleased to have
immediately mobilised to carry out exploration in the southern Drummond Basin region of
Central Queensland following the acquisition of Australian unlisted public company Ten Sixty
Four Limited (“1064”).
Medusa will accelerate 1064’s exploration plans to assess the highly prospective portfolio over
the next 12 months, starting with Monteagle.
Monteagle is an 18 km strike along a regional structural boundary with multiple targets,
including a high-grade rock chip sample at Rosewood, and a large breccia pipe with significant
hydrothermal veining identified in previous drilling at the Monteagle prospect.
Ryan Welker, Medusa Managing Director, commented:
“Medusa will accelerate the plan already in place by 1064. It’s a very large portfolio in a highly
prospective region capable of a significant discovery, and we expect lot of activity and success
for the region in the near term.”

[c9ajl] 25/3/2022 07:09

1064 Exploration IP Survey underway in Drummond BasinHttps://www.medusamining.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/220325_1064ipsurveyunderwayindrummondbasin.pdf

[bushtuckaman] 23/3/2022 14:03

Great stuff Polaris, that post wonderfully describes the investment case here.

[polaris] 23/3/2022 10:15

To highlight the too much cash / cash not really taken into account in the market cap and some other options.

A tier I company, such as Barrick, has a P/E around 20. While difficult to compare directly, as Barrick is a multi-metal and multi-jurisdiction producer, they also have a net cash position of close to zero. That is current cash position minus current debt. So i will compare at the top level.

For MML, the H1 FY23 results give NPAT of $0.074, or around AUD$0.10. That is on a H1 average pog of $1784. I'd say that worst case scenario is FY23 NPAT of double this value, or AUD$0.20. At current SP, that gives a forward P/E of a little under 5, a large discount on the 20 for Barrick, reflecting the level of risk of a small miner...and then some!

This takes no account of the net cash position in MML, which is close to zero for Barrick...they do have $5 Bn in cash but also similar levels of debt, looking at most recent results. MML has no debt gearing as it has no debt. Instead, it has $74 M in cash at end of H1 FY22, or close to AUD$100 M. With the 227 M shares, post 1064 acquisition, equivalent to AUD$0.44 per share.

Two options, strip out the cash to get actual P/E or that should be added onto the P/E expectation for a 'typical' small producing miner.

Option 1 leads to the effective share price for comparing with NPAT of AUD$0.495 at close of business last night, yielding a P/E of 2.5 in conservative case for FY22 results. Surely i am not alone in classing this as madness! Option 2 is that P/E of 5 is about right and you add the cash back, yielding a 'reasonable' share price in the conservative case of AUD$1.44 - a 54% increase wrt current share price Options 1 and 2 are two ways of looking at the same disparity.

My conclusion is that the cash on the books is ignored by the majority of basic analysis. MML have two options: return majority of cash to shareholders or fast-track other assets to production to make the cash work at a multiple to nominal value. I'd like to see combination of the two that leads to a sustainable dividend policy and progressing new assets to become a multi-asset producer. I'm not a great fan of one-off cash returns.

I also see the basic analysis as the conservative case. Why? pog is well up on average received for H1 FY23 and the production expectation is higher for H2 with likely reduced AISCs related to the higher gold production. NPAT could be above AUD$0.25, lower than last year, but still very respectable for a small producer. That would lower the rating even further.

While AUS is OK for miners i would prefer a dual listing for MML moving forward. They've tried AIM and that had its moments...i was here in the last mining boom and the share price reached multiple £s per share with same production, albeit with plans to expand production which never materialised. My preference is TSX and average P/Es for small producing miners is above 20 over there!

Repeating my other long term flag from previous posts. The mill is running at 50% nameplate. Once Tiger Way is complete, MML can move more ore, always the bottle-neck over last 10 years of production. If they can fill the mill then production can rise by at least 70%. That possibility is completely discounted in current SP, IMO. If a knowledgeable board pushes this option then share price can receive a boost.

MML has options that can easily lead to multi-bag from current share price I hope that new MD can progress these and realise the share price potential for shareholders...i.e. me! ;-)

[polaris] 23/3/2022 08:30

I'd like to see Q3 FY results before declaring we have officially moved on. New MD will need some time to review operational structure and enact any changes. I want to see a solid update on Tiger Way and the plan for developing 1064 assets, which new MD knows well. If these not fast-tracked then I want to see a dividend declared. MML have too much cash on books for a small cap.

[bushtuckaman] 23/3/2022 07:37

Nice move here, golden crosses aplenty. Looks like the market like the new management structure.



free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[c9ajl] 16/3/2022 08:23

APPOINTMENT OF NON-EXECUTIVE DIRECTORHttps://www.medusamining.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/220316_appointmentofNEDandrewhunt.pdf

[geckotheglorious] 14/3/2022 21:07

Great news indeed.
And a decent spike in share price too!

Clean sweep of old board and who knows...
Cheap as chips this company. Held back by Teo

Dual listing would be superb.

[polaris] 14/3/2022 18:50

According to Medusa Website, Teo is no longer listed in any form as a board member. So it does look like he is properly out on his ear. It'll be interesting how CEO Welker and CFO Warr deal with Villanueva, who has also been there for quite some time as President of the Philippines subsidiaries, and is actually a lawyer. Maybe we get a clean sweep of the old board and new impetus. I'd like to see MML dual list, preferring TSX to re-listing here on AIM.

[geckotheglorious] 10/3/2022 20:33

Polaris

"Hardly nowhere. share price has risen from the low of the mid AUD$0.60s to current close around AUD$0.83"

The share price was A$0.70 in Sept 2021.

The share price was A$0.77 in March 2021

High 2021 was what? A$0.95, Low as you say c low mid $0.60's

As I said, this stock has gone nowhere.

[glavey] 10/3/2022 14:02

The concern might be what might (now) happen to said cash...

[polaris] 09/3/2022 12:12

Hardly nowhere. share price has risen from the low of the mid AUD$0.60s to current close around AUD$0.83. Small miners always lag any rise due to pog on tier I players. It is more the longer term valuation metrics that filter through to cause small miner rerates over time. MML is a good example of a very lowly forward multiple.

Even with the lower gold price in H1 FY22 (July21-Dec21 @$1784) and the increased AISCs, MML turned a profit of nearly AUD$0.10 per share...for the HY. Add in the cash pile of AUD$100M+, equivalent to nearly AUD$0.45 per share post 1064 acquisition (20 M new shares). Q3 pog to date is over $1850 and expectation is AISCs will fall due to higher production to meet bottom end of forecast.

Even with energy price increase, i expect $500+ margin on AISCs for H2. I don't expect much, if any, increase in cash pile, due to cap-ex project (Tiger Way) but operational profit will be better in H2 than H1, meaning MML are still on an operational rating approaching a P/E based on enterprise value to be under 2.*

Over 1 M oz produced and counting.

*I am still hopeful of a dividend declaration either with Q3 results update or at FY report. Looking for AUD$0.05