Medusa Share Discussion Threads

[polaris] 17/8/2022 07:06

Production and AISC guidance out for FY23.



Steady as she goes. Tiger Way costs planned for $232 per production oz. All together, X64 (MML) should still be net cash positive in FY23, despite spending $20 M on cap-ex. At upper end of forecasts for AISC and low end of production, the margin is approaching $400 per production oz at current average pog for FY to date.

[bwana4] 01/8/2022 19:46

Thank you Polaris.
I am in no rush anywhere. Thank you for taking the time to explain.
ATB.

[polaris] 01/8/2022 18:51

They are probably not used to dealing outside UK. There are no announcements that would suggest X64 is suspended, only closed as markets not currently open. Volume in last trading day was about 100000. Market will open again at 0100 UK BST tomorrow morning.

[bwana4] 01/8/2022 17:08

I don't know guys because I had not bought shares outside the UK market before.
I placed my order and the Share Deal Active lady said it would probably be executed by tomorrow.
That was fine until a few hours later they rang me and said they could not fill the order because they said of a particular number or a case !!
I asked if the share has been suspended and they told me yes. That is how things happened and I don't really know what is happening, hence my previous post on here.

PS.

Polaris I used to hold MML in the AIM many years ago. I did well out of it in them days.
Today when Share Deal Active, cancelled my order I put that money into ALTN and IGAS.
GLA.

[polaris] 01/8/2022 16:16

Already posted Qly in #38642 from ASX announcement

[captain james t kirk] 01/8/2022 16:14

re 38654
Ta :)

[polaris] 01/8/2022 15:55

Suspended or closed? ASX is only open 0100-0700 UK time

[bwana4] 01/8/2022 14:26

Hi Guys, I tried to buy shares in X64 today but, I later on had a call from my Broker Jarvis ( Share Deal Active), saying the trade could not be made as the shares are suspended in X64 !!
Anyone have any ideas about that !!
GLA.

[bushtuckaman] 30/7/2022 11:54

Polaris et al, we've had a bit of chat about Medusa on the AAZ wanobi thread in the last few days. User Odsjp, plugged the numbers into his gold mining spreadsheet and not surprisingly it came out top of the tree.
Though you might be interested.

[polaris] 29/7/2022 18:19

They had better work fast. Once the audited results are out then the disparity will be clear to see. Even a cursory glance at figures, EPS, cash in hand and NAV will show you that X64 (MML) is seriously undervalued. It is almost a cash play alone based on CY22 expected performance.

[glavey] 29/7/2022 02:43

Well, I hope not! I can see no reason for anyone to vote against the board and it would suggest something very funny is going on if any significant holder(s) align themselves with this motion. I'm wondering what level of interest Arbiter Partners Capital Management LLC hold. I assume they will be required to declare their interest at some point. (?)

[polaris] 27/7/2022 10:14

Think a private takeout is more likely here. If the Vitrinite parties get in and remove remaining previous board members then who knows what happens next. I get the feeling the low pog received this Q may be because they sold post period. Welker mentioned in a statement that X64 would look to build gold reserves. Maybe that was part of reason for the termination. It's cost over $2 M this Q if actually the case cf. average pog for period.

[bushtuckaman] 27/7/2022 09:47

Ridiculous isn't it Polaris.

A decent set of quarterly numbers. Nice to see the head grade to continue to trend higher, back above 6g/t now.

Another miner holding a decent cash pile could do alot worse than picking this company up with a low ball offer. Payback would be within a year or 2 with that MML balance sheet.

AAZ Polaris? They have c. 30mil USD, so would need to take on a little debt to do it....

[polaris] 27/7/2022 08:57

Words fail me. The share price closed at AUD$0.595, valuing the producing mine at less than AUD$0.09 per share. The increase in cash pile alone in the Q from operations, minus all cap-ex and non-sustaining costs, was nudging towards AUD$0.03… for the Q! It’s like some parallel universe, not a good one either.

[polaris] 26/7/2022 17:30

At $80.8 M cash position, i'd expect a dividend declaration at FY announcement in the region of AUD$0.06, about $10 M. I also want to see some movement on the buyback mandate of up to 10% of the listed capital. At today's SP, that equates to around $10 M. If X64 did both then it infers share price into the AUD$1+ area.

Post these events, the company would look something like 200 M shares with $60 M still in the coffers, producing at 90k oz p.a. and $300+ AISC margins, even at low $1700s gold.

In the 'old' days you would expect to be paying 10x projected forward cash flow, plus cash, an EV of $300+ M here. X64, at $80.8 M cash, doesn't even boast an EV much above $100 M today, despite the FY22 cash flow coming in at near $40 M! i.e. struggling to make even 1x cash-flow!!

[polaris] 26/7/2022 16:41

I do query the Q4 production numbers. The average received is listed as $1757 for the Q, yet at no point in the Q was gold ever this low. 90 DMA at end of Q was more like $1850.

I also went through the AISCs based on previous 3 Qs and to get the FY22 number of $1362 need a Q4 AISC in excess of $1500. If Q4 is right on AISC then it should come in closer to $1312 for FY.

Last year, MML added costs from Tiger Way to the AISCs for last fiscal Q of the year, artificially increasing AISCs, now a note in the previous accounts. All Tiger Way costs count as new cap-ex and are not sustaining capital expenditure. As such, they do not belong in the AISCs for gold produced/sold.

I'll await the audited numbers in a month or so or an update to the release in case there are typos in current report.

[polaris] 26/7/2022 16:01

Qly report out.


$80.8 M in cash
23482 oz in Q4 at $1428 AISC and ave price received of $1757.

FY22 of just shy of 90 k oz at $1362 AISC and $1811 average price received.

That is cash generation of $450 per production oz over the year. MML (X64) have managed to expense $17.2 M on Tiger Way, a good part of that during FY22, and still grow the cash pile. Add in the small buyback and the dividend paid in FY.

All this for AUD$0.62...now about AUD$0.50 in cash and EPS approaching AUD$0.25! LoM is still 10+ years and infrastructure project will allow mill to be fully utilised (from current 50%) in about 2 years.

[glavey] 22/7/2022 13:25

I get the feeling that PRW may be a little aggrieved.

[polaris] 22/7/2022 08:03

Seems that another board coup is in the making. Vitrinite have joined with other concert parties to file to remove existing board and replace them.

[polaris] 21/7/2022 12:50

Then there is IG, who i use to trade, who have the correct EPS for FY21 at AUD$0.31, correct revenues and EBITDA, but currently list the P/E as 2.65 and the market cap at AUD$168.5 M based on 207.9 M shares, implying a share price near AUD$0.82. They list the 12-month low as AUD$0.64, despite the price at close of AUD$0.585. They also list the interim EPS as AUD$0.05, when it was US$0.074, or close to AUD$0.11. Something is totally screwed up with how the agencies are extracting/listing the data from the audited results (FY and interims) and the share issue since those dates. It is not even as if it is a USD/AUD problem. Roll on the end of next month and the audited results for FY22!

[polaris] 20/7/2022 17:26

I use this link for information on X64



There are some real oddities in the numbers listed. The revenue and NPAT are correct for the FY21 period (to end June 21) but the EPS is BS. It is listed as $0.15, i.e. AUD, when it was $0.23...USD...or $0.31 AUD. The P/E ratio is given as price / EPS and listed as 4 (probably calculated on previous day close). If they had the right numbers it would be less than 2, ignoring the cash pile. Strange...

H1 FY22 (to end Dec 21) was $0.074 or about $0.11 AUD. With announcement on production meeting top end of revised expectations H2 will probably beat H1. Still head scratching here.

[polaris] 20/7/2022 07:28

Sad news for the poor miner who fell and died. There will be an investigation and production stopped in immediate area while investigation is ongoing. Production continues from other areas.

[polaris] 18/7/2022 08:52

Yeh, been saying that for a while now. Nice to know there is someone else banging the drum too. Need people to buy!

[ilostthelot] 18/7/2022 07:13

Post from Seller on hotcopper- Topped up @58.5c.At these prices, we are 90% cash backed (around 80 Mio USD cash as of 30/06 (my estimate) which is around 118 Mio AUD @0.677 AUD/USD).Current market cap is 132 Mio AUD, therefore the Enterprise Value is only 14 Mio AUD !! at the current share price. On top of that, you get around 18 Mio USD that has already been spent on the Tigerway Decline (my estimate), the Queensland Gold Exploration portfolio and all the mining equipment and infrastructure at the Co-O mine....and they are still making around 400 USD/oz profit at current gold prices.Give it a couple more quarters and the share price will be fully cash backed and you get the remaining company assets for free.With the current cash war chest, it might be a good time to go hunting for some cheap gold/copper assets. Definitely an enviable position in the current market. Cash is king again, who would've thought....