Medusa Share Discussion Threads

[4marlin] 14/4/2016 12:13

indeed.
a full life lived.

[chipperfrd] 14/4/2016 11:27

Dek,

My condolences. You could not have done more.

Kind regards
Chip

[deka1] 13/4/2016 18:24

Thanks Chip,i managed to get the hospital to let her go home,on palliative care,
I was with her 24/7 for her last three weeks of life,the care team, Macmillan nurses, District nurse, were all fantastic support, she made her 97th by two days.
Most difficult thing I have ever done in my lifetime.
Thanks for your thoughts chip, i'm back home now .

[chipperfrd] 13/4/2016 17:28

Dek (off-topic)

I hope everything went OK with the care package you were busy with some months ago. It is noticeable how infrequently you have been posting since.
Chip

[deka1] 13/4/2016 15:18

I don't know to whom they sell , but 4 or 5 years ago did the Philippines gold producers not have to give the central bank the option first at spot price,iirc.
May have changed in the last few years .

[chipperfrd] 13/4/2016 14:37

ILTL

I don't know the answer to who they sell to. But they have historically appeared to have lots of control over quantity and timing of when they sell their refined bullion (people will remember the large amount of gold awaiting sale that they held on their books for many years). So I doubt they have any issues at all with regard to bullion banks in London or anywhere else for that matter.
Chip

[ilostthelot] 13/4/2016 12:16

Its ridiculously bad!! Similar to the sub prime housing but worse and it's quite openly leveraged to very little Physical gold.
This is the way it's been for so long though ,so something tells me they'll continue to run their paper gold market until they have next to zero physical gold at all..

I'd be interested to see who exactly Medusa sells to.

Share price is looking strong , not long now until it's over a dollar.

[chipperfrd] 13/4/2016 11:20

Quite a telling chart!



In just 8 years the two largest populations on the planet have accumulated 18,000t of gold, so an average of 2,250t/year from new production of c. 2,800t/year.

In contrast, the LBMA trades paper contracts of more than the entire global production every day! Yet it can only feasibly receive c. 6-7t/day of actual physical metal upon which to leverage all that un-allocated paper.

Is this the longest running ponzi of all time?
Chip

[eintracht] 12/4/2016 23:03

Do we actually know to whom MML "sells" its Gold to and whether or not it is a long term agreement ?

[chipperfrd] 12/4/2016 16:23

Trouble is (as my earlier table demonstrates) the producers are, on average, highly indebted.

The 64 that I tabled have US$41 billion of debt between them and I would guess that a large proportion of that is with the bullion banks. So they may well be beholden to those same banks for actually handling the sale of their output, let alone the hedge instruments that many of them have had to take out in recent years.

There was comment on LBMA banks well over a year ago that they were offering premiums for physical delivery contracts with producers because of the squeeze on availability of supply.

Let's see how well the LBMA can keep 'all the balls in the air' now that they have a credible price-discovery competitor who is both the world's largest producer and consumer of gold.

These paper markets cannot end soon enough for me!
Chip

[polaris] 12/4/2016 14:55

Hi all,

Surely the gold producers will use a physical exchange if one exists as they have production to sell? For now, they are stuck with the paper fix. So it doesn't matter what the paper price is if gold producers switch to the physical exchange.

Interesting times...

Paul

[nielsc] 12/4/2016 11:21

Chipperfrd,I was thinking about the 19th. Hopefully gold sellers will use the physical exchange which doesn't rehypothecate their gold. Arbitrageurs will then hopefully bring the paper prices closer to the physical prices.Cheers,Niels

[eintracht] 12/4/2016 09:36

Interesting read Chip. Roll on the 19th !!!!

[noirua] 11/4/2016 17:51

chips, notice you left out ASX:RMS Ramelius Resources, the second fastest riser in Australia's gold sector.
MML struggling back well.

[chipperfrd] 07/4/2016 12:31

I thought this might be of some interest here.
I have tabled the stocks according to their retained earnings, which effectively reflect their accumulated profits or deficits since first listing.

Stock . Ret Earnings .. Debt ($m) .. Net Assets .. Net Debt/Equity .. Name
RRS ........ 1,575.2 ........ 0.0 ..... 3,303.0 .............. -3% .. Randgold
GV ......... 1,447.3 .... 1,820.0 ..... 2,768.0 .............. 50% .. Goldfields
SLW ........ 1,358.4 .... 1,466.0 ..... 4,150.7 .............. 33% .. Silver Wheaton
FRES ....... 1,296.9 ...... 797.0 ..... 2,344.1 .............. 18% .. Fresnillo
PGIL ....... 1,258.0 .... 1,813.0 ..... 3,821.0 .............. 16% .. Polyus Gold
NEM ........ 1,242.0 .... 6,646.0 .... 10,274.0 .............. 41% .. Newmont
CEY .......... 685.3 ........ 0.0 ..... 1,353.3 ............. -15% .. Centamin
HOC .......... 218.1 ...... 434.5 ....... 765.5 .............. 46% .. Hochschild
RGLD ......... 174.0 ...... 316.9 ..... 2,340.7 ............. -15% .. Royal Gold
NST .......... 160.5 ....... 19.7 ....... 379.1 ............. -50% .. Northern Star
POG .......... 137.7 ...... 977.8 ....... 548.6 ............. 169% .. Petropavlovsk
MML .......... 113.9 ........ 6.2 ....... 223.6 .............. -1% .. Medusa
PAF .......... 104.7 ....... 31.6 ....... 149.7 .............. 18% .. Pan African
PRU ........... 84.7 ........ 0.0 ....... 581.6 ............. -16% .. Perseus
SRB ........... 77.5 ....... 11.5 ........ 46.8 .............. 20% .. Serabi Gold
MND ........... 72.0 ....... 57.9 ....... 207.7 ............... 4% .. Mandalay
HGM ........... 51.8 ...... 271.0 ....... 771.6 .............. 34% .. Highland Gold
FSM ........... 45.2 ....... 39.5 ....... 264.2 ............. -12% .. Fortuna
OGC ............ 8.6 ...... 198.8 ..... 1,139.8 ............... 1% .. Oceanagold
SVM ............ 2.1 ........ 0.0 ....... 231.4 ............. -27% .. Silvercorp
AAZ ............ 1.4 ....... 50.5 ........ 82.6 .............. 59% .. Anglo Asian
GORO .......... -0.9 ........ 0.0 ........ 88.8 ............. -14% .. Gold Res Corp
KDX ........... -3.6 ....... 28.6 ....... 201.2 ............. -15% .. Klondex
SAND ......... -17.9 ........ 0.0 ....... 421.5 ............. -21% .. Sandstorm
RRL .......... -23.9 ....... 21.9 ....... 427.8 ............. -13% .. Regis Res
ASM .......... -25.4 ....... 18.9 ........ 51.9 .............. 22% .. Avino
KGI .......... -28.0 ...... 109.1 ....... 312.6 ............... 5% .. Kirkland Lake
POLY ......... -28.7 .... 1,322.6 ....... 869.5 ............. 134% .. Polymetal Int
TSG .......... -30.8 ....... 20.8 ........ 77.7 .............. 17% .. Trans-Siberia
BDR .......... -34.8 ....... 83.6 ....... 122.7 .............. 60% .. Beadell Res
OMI .......... -34.9 ........ 0.8 ........ 30.5 .............. -6% .. Orosur
EXN .......... -49.2 ........ 0.0 ........ 28.5 .............. -5% .. Excellon
GBGR ......... -49.9 ........ 8.3 ........ 77.3 ............... 8% .. GoldBridges
SHG .......... -58.3 ....... 57.8 ........ 85.4 .............. 61% .. Shanta Gold
AG ........... -71.8 ....... 63.2 ....... 544.7 ............... 2% .. First Majestic
GPL .......... -85.1 ........ 0.0 ........ 51.7 ............. -35% .. Great Panther
TRY .......... -88.7 ....... 74.4 ....... 186.9 .............. 27% .. Troy Res
AXU ......... -113.7 ....... 18.1 ........ 75.0 .............. 13% .. Alexco
RSG ......... -118.3 ....... 97.2 ....... 228.0 .............. 42% .. Resolute
USA ......... -141.4 ........ 6.4 ........ 76.2 ............... 6% .. Americas
CMCL ........ -147.7 ........ 0.0 ........ 50.4 ............. -22% .. Caledonia
PGD ......... -153.5 ....... 10.8 ........ 26.6 .............. 20% .. Patagonia G
HMY ......... -168.0 ...... 270.0 ..... 2,603.0 ............... 6% .. Harmony
AVM ......... -199.5 ....... 60.9 ....... -18.2 ............ -309% .. Avocet
EVN ......... -225.4 ...... 499.0 ..... 1,559.1 .............. 29% .. Evolution
HL .......... -232.6 ...... 502.9 ..... 1,338.9 .............. 26% .. Hecla
TAHO ........ -270.0 ....... 35.0 ..... 1,664.0 .............. -4% .. Tahoe Res
SSRI ........ -274.0 ...... 212.4 ....... 447.2 ............... 0% .. Silver Standard
FNV ......... -302.2 ...... 457.3 ..... 3,163.0 .............. 10% .. Franco Nevada
EXK ......... -327.3 ....... 22.0 ........ 50.9 ............... 3% .. Endeavour S
KCN ......... -406.1 ...... 120.3 ....... 320.2 .............. 27% .. Kingsgate
ACA ......... -514.8 ...... 127.8 ..... 1,787.5 .............. -6% .. Acacia
SLR ......... -517.3 ....... 11.3 ....... 182.9 .............. -9% .. Silverlake Res
EDV ......... -527.8 ...... 264.6 ....... 504.9 .............. 42% .. Endeavour G
SBM ......... -619.9 ...... 293.0 ....... 202.5 .............. 95% .. St Barbara
AUY ......... -818.4 .... 1,858.8 ..... 6,807.7 .............. 26% .. Yamana
AEM ......... -823.7 .... 1,132.6 ..... 4,141.0 .............. 24% .. Agnico Eagle
NORD ........ -845.2 ...... 944.4 ....... 939.0 .............. 87% .. Nordgold
PAAS ...... -1,023.5 ....... 59.8 ..... 1,298.6 .............. -6% .. Pan American
EGO ....... -1,586.9 ...... 589.4 ..... 3,751.7 ............... 8% .. Eldorado
CDE ....... -2,600.8 ...... 490.4 ....... 421.5 .............. 69% .. Coeur Mining
NCM ....... -4,598.0 .... 2,759.0 ..... 6,723.0 .............. 39% .. Newcrest
AU ........ -4,636.0 .... 2,737.0 ..... 2,467.0 .............. 91% .. Anglogold
GG ........ -4,750.0 .... 2,688.0 .... 12,848.0 .............. 18% .. Goldcorp
KGC ...... -10,922.1 .... 1,981.4 ..... 3,933.2 .............. 24% .. Kinross
ABX ...... -13,642.0 ... 10,045.0 ..... 7,178.0 ............. 106% .. Barrick

Randgold has a fantastic record. ShareScope trendline shows a 26.75% CAGR since 1999 (which is the earliest record on ShareScope). I held it from c. £6 but closed out at c. £20 - more fool me!
Centamin is also doing pretty well with a CAGR trend of 18%.
Interesting that 2 of the Streaming stocks (SLW & RGLD) also figure highly, even though they only IPO'd in 2004/05.
MML has done well even though it made a big impairment for FY15 which dropped it's Retained Earnings then from US$296m down to US$82.5m. However, if gold moves higher then some or all of that impairment could be reversed.
Chip

[nielsc] 06/4/2016 07:13

Justin,RealVisionTV sounds good. Will look at signing up for a free trial after the school holidays so I have time to do some reading!Cheers,Niels

[chipperfrd] 06/4/2016 01:22

Yes, FCF of c. US$7m seems about right for the quarter.

[justinjjbuk] 05/4/2016 22:42

RT: Thanks for that on RealVisionTV

Chip: using my weighted London fix gold price over CY 16 Q1 I have MML's average gold selling price at $1181.7. In the grand scheme of things not much different from yours. A contributor over at Hot Copper has Q1 average at $1,190. Given CY Q4 AISC of $950 and average gold price secured of $1,096, that gives a naive OP of $146 an ounce. It we take my conservative average gold price of $1,182 and keep the AISC at $950, naive OP moves up to $232 CY16 Q1. That's a 59% increase quarter-on-quarter. Obviously, lots of other moving parts. But given the margin of safety, it is difficult to see how the coming quarterly announcement can disappoint.

Justin

[roguetreader] 05/4/2016 20:46

Justin
its a one off annual subscription of $364 plus I got a £7 credit card charge, but that may be my card.
RT

[tightfist] 05/4/2016 09:34

Hi Eintracht,

Thanks. Good to see costs are heading in the right direction, with BT's fixed plus superann. at $550k compared with GD (CEO) at $718k (annualised, before the temporary salary reduction) and PH-B (MD) at $750k.

In the AR there is a lot of good-intent about increasing the alignment of the STI (Short Term Incentive) and shareholder wealth creation. In due course it would be good to see more transparency regarding the targets for the Performance STI plan.


Cheers, tightfist

[eintracht] 05/4/2016 08:40

There was an announcement on the ASX today regarding the terms and conditions of the new CEO's employment.

[justinjjbuk] 05/4/2016 00:16

RT

How much are you paying for a full subscription to RealvisionTV?

Justin

[ilostthelot] 04/4/2016 08:42

I agree 60c was quite strong resistance which should turn support.

[abacus23] 04/4/2016 08:26

I still have orders at 0.685 and 0.675 that i will leave in place for now. The price has been quite erratic of late as has the pog. If we did get the backtest of the 1150-1180 region in pog then we might yet see mid 0.60s.

regards,

Paul

----

Paul, Thats what i was expecting, possible low 60's, considering the move up we have had, a test of previous resistance would be good.