Medusa Share Discussion Threads

[davegk] 08/3/2016 11:56

Top 10 holdings.

Medusa Mining Ltd 5.47%
Zhaojin Mining Industry Co... 5.27%
Harmony Gold Mining Co Ltd ADR 5.21%
Semafo Inc 5.20%
Argonaut Gold Inc 5.06%
Alamos Gold Inc 5.02%
Centamin PLC 4.92%
B2Gold Corp 4.88%
Acacia Mining PLC 4.86%
Koza Altin Izletmeleri AS 4.82%

Chip have you had a look at MTL recently. They are about to start producing - target is 100,000 ounces per year with a AISC of around US$550.

[chipperfrd] 08/3/2016 11:46

Thanks davegk. That's a new one on me!

As a matter of interest, who else do they have in their top 10 holdings?

I don't think it is likely that MML's revenues will ever be impacted by copper or coal. They have always given the impression that the copper licenses would be farmed out if exploration success brought in interest from developers. Certainly not likely in the short/medium term due to global Cu over capacity.

As for the coal, as I understand it, the intention is to attract a 3rd party energy company to build and run an area power station with MML just supplying the coal fuel. They would then have a 'first-call' contract for their electrical power needs to remove their reliance on an unreliable grid & oil-powered back-up. Overall it is more about cost savings and reliability than direct revenue generation from coal.
Chip

[davegk] 08/3/2016 11:26

Just had an email from IG index stockbroking which listed the best performing ISA eligible ETF’s over the last month. In third place was the soleactive global pure gold miners with a 44% return. (The top two places went to 5X and 3X short natural gas)

I had a look at the gold fund and was surprised to find that their largest holding at 5.5% of the fund was in MML.
The ETF seeks to replicate the soleactive global pure gold miners net total return index.

“The Solactive Global Pure Gold Miners Index tracks the price movements in shares of companies which are active in the gold mining industry. At least 90 percent of the companies' revenues need to be generated by gold mining activities. A maximum of 30 components are included and weighted by freefloat market capitalization. The index is calculated as a total return index and published in USD. The compositon of the index is ordinarily adjusted once a year”

As the index’s market capitalisation weighted does is not imply that MML is the worlds largest quoted “pure” gold miner !

The ETF is very small at around US$14 million.

Of course if we ever open the coal mine or make any progress with our copper assets we will drop out of this index.

[roguetreader] 07/3/2016 17:48

Chip
thanks for the offer, much appreciated, I'll plough on and if I've got any specific queries that I can't resolve I'll raise as suggested on the comparison thread.
RT

[bluelynx] 07/3/2016 14:59

gold miner

Good work, it sounds very promising. Thanks

BL

[chipperfrd] 07/3/2016 13:15

RT

I could walk you through my balance sheet workbook if you want - but it is 134 rows deep! Each column is a financial year. Each stock sheet is identical with slight exceptions due to differing functional currencies and translations necessary to bring everything into US$ at the bottom line.

If you want more info ask on the comparison thread.
Chip

[goldminer70] 07/3/2016 12:47

After the results were announced I sent another EMail to Andrew Teo saying that they were very good, I added that I was awaiting replies to my previous EMails.
The following day I had an EMail from his secretary asking for my telephone number, I replied giving it but saying with the problems of time zones an EMail would be better.
I waited 2 days by the telephone and I was in 90% of the time he did ring me on Friday but it was during the 10% I EMailed again apologising but said I would be in for the whole of today, again saying an EMail would be better.
I have had a reply from his secretary saying he is in the Phillippines all this week saying she is not sure when he can ring me again.
If he ever rings me again I doubt if he will telling me confidential. I can't understand why he can't EMail me.
I'll keep the pressure up.
Goldminer70

[tightfist] 06/3/2016 23:57

Hi deka,

I was meaning 25 productive days per month; sometimes you can see x25 factor when they flip between "per day" and " per month " tonnage rate measures. I assume that x25 reflects working practice at the mine (as a minimum?). I have wondered if they haul up L8 (the bottleneck) for 6 days per week, but mine for less than that, but that is total speculation. I think they advised 12 months ago that they were milling for less than 4 days per week?

Cheers, tightfist

[roguetreader] 06/3/2016 23:25

Cheers Chip
I was using your post as a reference point as I'm going through the half year report trying to get a better handle on the detailed financials, as I've come to the conclusion my DD needs to be undertaken in far more depth.
RT

[chipperfrd] 06/3/2016 22:37

RT,

re EPS. You are quite right. I left it in US$ terms (I blame it on the early hour in which I was doing it!). In A$ terms we are currently looking at above 40c for the Financial Year.

I did realise the next day, but as there had been no comment on my summary I thought it was not worth belaboring the point.

But I am pleased that you noticed :-)
Chip

[bluelynx] 06/3/2016 20:36

Atlantic, good price, let's hope for good news soon..

All the best BL

[atlantic57] 06/3/2016 20:28

Hi blue yes I recently bought back in with a modest stake but very fortunately at 41 cents
Good luck

[deka1] 06/3/2016 20:14

TF hi and thanks , the 25 days,may be 5 production for 4 weeks and 5 for essential maint.

[bluelynx] 06/3/2016 19:46

Atlantic

I quite agree, do you currently hold MML Shares.

[atlantic57] 06/3/2016 18:56

Blue the main factor in my view is the pog not the appointment of a ceo.
If gold goes on a run northwards then regardless of the perception by some
Of a weak management structure and poor communication by the bod of material issues
Then MMl could still fly.

Last time round quality juniors and what turned out to be rubbish all flew when gold
Went on a sustained run.

[bluelynx] 06/3/2016 17:10

tightfist

If the price gets anywhere near the $1.50 mark and there are still issues with the directors and no highly regarded CEO in place I would certainly reduce my holding.I hope the new CEO is selected from Europe, USA or Australia just to add balance to the Board, it seems that there may have been issues between the Western directors who have left and those currently in place., but that is only my view and it could well be very wide of the mark.

Thanks for sharing your views.

BL

[tightfist] 06/3/2016 15:53

BL,

Agreed, the current pricing has plenty of margin for those shortcomings. I am looking further ahead to this Autumn when hopefully we are, at least, sitting in Paul's 1.50AUD area; then we are going to need to see tangible improvements in management strategy, commitments and communications.

Cheers, tightfist

[roguetreader] 06/3/2016 15:51

Hi Chip

I have a query on your post (35947) re the half year report.

You have the recorded EPS as A$15c, but my understanding looking at the report (Page 13) is that earnings are stated in US$, where at current EPS in A$, earnings would be A$20C at current exchange rates.

Am I missing something obvious?

RT

[bluelynx] 06/3/2016 15:05

tightfist / Atlantic

Well I agree a little more transparency wouldn't go amiss, let's hope this will improve once the new CEO is announced. But the current valuation more than prices in these anomalies in my opinion.

[tightfist] 06/3/2016 13:26

Chip,

Many thanks for the overview of your evaluation process and measures, and data for selected Oz miners. Plenty to review and research around, but I also note your comment that you havn't yet seen anything on ASX as stand-out as MML. On LSE I am already in SHG, GBGR (both of which I have seen you post on) and SRB; Mike Hodgson as CEO of MML would get my vote!


deka, it seems that MML always use a 25 day working month in their capacity calculations. I hope that helps.

Cheers, tightfist

[atlantic57] 06/3/2016 13:17

Chip thanks for posting that table that is really helpful.
I wonder why the market has treated MMl so harshly relative to its peers.
I am no expert but the very low P/E ratio and net debt do seem attractive.

Blue
I don't think you can make serious allegations like accusing people of lying
Without substantial evidence.Although from memory August was calling MMl
Down from around 4 pounds and clearly was correct in his advice to get out.

Since you raise the subject of lying two of the companies Vgm
And norsman gold appear to have similarities in that they were both trying to resurrect
Old gold mines.

With the benefit of hindsight it was evident that management were over optimistic.
Clearly the falling price also put them under pressure.In those cases I feel management
Kept hoping when clearly each plan was not working.

However I blame myself not the management the share price was telling me in both cases
That whatever management were saying it simply was not happening.

[tightfist] 06/3/2016 13:11

BL,

I have never felt that in retrospect we were being lied to by the BoD. The biggest fundamental flaw I have seen is how they thought they were going to get the mine to feed the SAG mill at 2,500 tpd of 8.8g ore. Was there a valid rationale at the time? I don’t know, I wasn’t that tuned-in.

For sure they have been over-optimistic in terms of timelines for getting things done – getting the mill up to operating capacity always seemed very ambitious, and more recently we are seeing the L8 drilling chambers and the ventilation project slip.

The biggest issue I have is that the current BoD create an information vacuum and investors are left to their own speculations and then become disappointed; that is NOT the BoD lying. GD and RG immediately set about stamping-out that culture but we now seem to be heading back there with loose, unaccountable words such as “challenges associated with L8 shaft repairs” and unwillingness to provide documented “medium term” AISC guidance.

I fervently hope that the new CEO is a sufficiently strong character to make amends; if it’s a top-down culture issue I fear that it’s going to need some BoD changes……;


Have a good day! tightfist

[bluelynx] 06/3/2016 10:46

RT

Thanks for the link to the Jim Grant interview, he always speaks the truth in a clear commonsense way.

[bluelynx] 06/3/2016 10:42

Our friend augustusgloop on another gold company thread stated that he believe that the Directors of MML have been proven to be complete liars and anyone investing in them must be complete mugs.

This I feel is totally harsh on the BoD, at worst I would say the Director's were gulity of being overly optimistic and given the very high gold price in 2011 who could blame them.

But considering the considerable fall in the PoG I would say that all in all the management have done a good job in running the company in very difficult circumstances They only had to borrow a small sum of money and are now growing cash and at the same time investing to grow production and reserves for the future.

Does anyone here agree with AG that the BoD have been gulity of out and out lying.

[chipperfrd] 06/3/2016 09:25

RT,
Thank you. Jim Grant is always a good listen!