Medusa Share Discussion Threads

[justinjjbuk] 22/3/2016 23:57

tightfist

Yes, none too impressed with AT's shareholder communication. But hopefully this situation should now get better.

I am a little more forgiving over the past expansion plans. I think we need to remember that when the 'through train' plans to gold production of 280k oz pa were being drawn up gold was trading at $1,600. At such a level, Co-O could have financed a space mission to Mars!

I am less forgiving over the implementation of the new mill. Rob Gregory, in his less guarded moments in the bar in London, alluded to both the floods and the battery problems as being perfectly avoidable. He also sorted out the incentive scheme which previously encouraged the work force to, in effect, lower the grade of the ore. I rather liked his forthrightness. When I suggested that the old mill could possibly be used to increase capacity if necessary in future (as we were told it was 'moth-balled'), he described it as a "piece of sh*t"!

Anyway, I would say that the market is still capable of rewarding production growth if management can show a track record of delivering such growth at the right cost structure. Just look at the performance of NST, EVN and OSG.

So if Boyd Timler can show a credible plan to bring Bananghilig to production in the course of time I don't think it would be such a bad thing.

Justin

[nielsc] 22/3/2016 23:49

Justin,Does your subscription to ttmygh give you access to RealVisionTV?Wouldn't mind seeing a bit more of Raoul Pal. Grant W mentioned that he was completely into gold around Dec time at a gold conference Q&A session.Cheers,Niels

[tightfist] 22/3/2016 19:46

Justin,

Hmmmm - you have also picked up on a trait in AT's communications, that he doesn't seem to think about what he said before to give a sense of continuity in what he writes next. I find that aspect quite concerning; it doesn't inspire confidence/trust.

Anyway, presumably (hopefully!) BT will now take control of the vast majority of shareholder communications, so we have to wait-and-see about his style.

Regarding Ban./Guin. I think Mr Market could rightly currently attach NEGATIVE value. We have endured value destruction in the cash expenditure at Co-O; some of it was bad luck with PoG adverse movement, but the remainder indicates that MML management need to get their house in order when executing major projects, and for me the jury is out and will remain so for quite some time. That is why I recently suggested selling those assets.

Cheers, tightfist

[chipperfrd] 22/3/2016 10:20

Useful explanation of the London Gold Market for anyone who does not already know about the LBMA.



Chip

[chipperfrd] 22/3/2016 00:44

No, nothing to add really. Bit busy with a load of other stocks currently. However, I look forward to seeing the tone of the next few reports although I think it reasonable to give the guy a few months to bed in.

[justinjjbuk] 21/3/2016 22:18

Chip: You got any views on the new guy?

[justinjjbuk] 21/3/2016 22:18

Separately, it's interesting that this announcement came just one day after the spike in volume for the ASX rebalance. Given that the rebalance was met with a jump in the share price, I suspect that some institution got a sniff of the good news to come and said "thank you very much" to the liquidity provided by all those index funds that were obliged to check out of MML on the exclusion.

[justinjjbuk] 21/3/2016 22:09

tightfist

Well, I guess AT's wording suggested we had a long way to go in the selection process. From the 22 January CEO Update release:

"The Board has been working closely with a mandated executive recruitment firm to finalise a shortlist of candidates. As part of this process,, we have commenced a review of operations, the results of which will be central to briefing the final candidates with the most current data available, to ensure full transparency and a smooth handover. Selected candidates will then travel to site to familiarise themselves with our team and operations first hand."

So my "hmmm" came from wondering how on earth all this was achieved in the space of 8 weeks?

Anyway, as a 'cup half full' kind of guy, the original CEO Update in Jan was a negative surprise to me, and this CEO announcement is a better positive surprise. We now have a CEO who, over the course of time, can drum up some institutional interest, especially as MML's market cap is gradually getting back to a more respectable level that would interest institutions.

At the same time, we now appear better equipped to play 'offence' not just 'defence'. If POG behaves and MML continues to throw off cash, the new CEO can dust off all those plans for Bananghilig and a potential production increase to 280k oz per annum.

I think in a previous post I suggested that Mr Market is attaching the value of "zero" to Bananghilig and Guinhalinan, With POG where it is and an experienced new CEO this should change!

Justin

[tightfist] 21/3/2016 14:12

Hi Justin,

Was it a smoke screen? - my guess is that there was a short-list of one and that Boyd was possibly also part of the Operational Review squad. Andrew Teo will be very aware that 2016 production guidance confirmation is expected by the market very soon (by the end of March?), AND that Boyd needs to be held accountable for delivering it - a big-ask unless he has spent a lot of time at the mine and with the Operations Team?

Lots of emphasis in the announcement on Organic Growth and that Boyd "has taken expansion projects from pre-feasibility through board approval to operations". I read into that and AT's words determination of the Board to progress Bananghilig and/or Guinhalinan; Timler's last baby was primarily an open pit operation, though he only joined after Commercial Production was achieved.

In summary, lots to like about the announcement and being an international player I would expect to see/meet him in London before the end of this year.

Incidentally, the Beadell 2014 AR makes interesting reading, especially pp 39 onwards regarding Short Term Incentive (STI) rewards. Mr Timler comes from a culture with only 50% fixed remuneration, allied with transparent STI target categories; indeed, 76% of his Cash Bonus was forfeited through under-performance. Hopefully that remuneration culture (but not performance!) will come with him, and we see better alignment of Directors, Executives and Shareholders interests going forward.


Cheers, tightfist

[justinjjbuk] 21/3/2016 11:31

Paul

Yes, I agree with you this is a positive and I actually bought more MML last night given the removal of a major risk factor.

I also feel that it is a major plus factor that a senior executive with extensive experience in the gold mining sector, including in the majors, would cap his career through taking on the CEO role with MML.

Basically, he would have done his own due diligence and would be in a unique position to have assessed any underlying risks with Medusa. Accordingly, he would have looked at LOM issues and the risk to AISC as the mine goes ever deeper and decided that such risks were not a threat to taking the CEO position. That, to me, is a big vote of confidence in the mine and in Medusa.

Justin

[polaris] 21/3/2016 07:18

well he looks to have experience in vein mining and the CV looks good. Let's see what happens over the next 2 Qs as he gets into the job. It does seem that he was the preferred candidate for some time looking at the announcement from his previous role. The main news though is that the process is closed and MML have their man.

regards,

Paul

[speedsgh] 21/3/2016 07:05

CEO Appointment -

Medusa Mining Limited is pleased to announce the appointment of Boyd Timler as Chief Executive Officer, effective 21 March 2016. Mr Timler has over 30 years of progressive international mining experience and is a proven senior level executive, having most recently served as the Chief Operating Officer of Beadell Resources Ltd. He has a strong track record in delivering results, driving change requirements to enhance project value, and achieving the highest safety, environmental and sustainability practices at all projects he has been involved with.

Mr Timler brings extensive operational experience to Medusa, having spent the first 15 years of his career working in underground narrow high grade gold projects culminating at Kinross Gold’s Hoyle Pond Mine in Canada, and subsequently at Placer Dome following a joint venture between the two. He has held senior level positions at operations in Canada, USA, Australia, Tanzania, Zambia and Brazil, and has taken expansion projects from pre-feasibility through board approval to operations. He has been responsible for operating budgets of up to USD$800 million, sustaining capital of +$150 million and brownfield expansion projects of +$350 million.

Previously, Mr Timler also held the position of Managing Director at Lumwana Mining Company (a subsidiary of Barrick Gold Corp, the world’s largest gold producer), in Zambia, and has also served as General Manager at various mine sites owned by Barrick in Australia and Africa. Mr Timler holds a B.Sc. Specialization in Geology from the University of Alberta, and is a GAICD with over 30 years of progressive international experience in exploration, technical services, operations, project evaluations and senior/executive management.

Medusa Chairman Andrew Teo welcomed the appointment, and said, “we are thrilled to have someone with Boyd’s skills and experience join our management team. His experience in operating large scale projects in international environments, and in developing brownfield projects from PFS through to production, will be an asset to the Company as we look to grow our operations in the Philippines.”

Mr Timler said, “I am very excited about joining the great team at Medusa, and I am looking forward to the challenge of delivering on the Company’s immense potential of the mine operations and achieving organic growth for Medusa in the Philippines”.

[justinjjbuk] 21/3/2016 01:54

Hmmm

Boyd Timler left Beadell in November 2015 to "pursue other opportunities". He was only appointed at Beadell in March 2014. Given the possible requirement for 3 three months notice/garden leave, wonder if MML had actually offered him the position back then.

This would account for Rob Gregory disappearing. So then has all the talk of a short list and visit to the mine post the mining review by short-listed candidates been a smoke screen?



Well, I guess removing the uncertainty is still a positive and he looks very qualified. But I am not sure what the point of all the incorrect guidance to shareholders over the appointment process was all about.

[justinjjbuk] 21/3/2016 01:43

New CEO! That's unexpected. Didn't think we would see anything until June or beyond given the previous guidance from Andrew Teo over the selection process and the mining review.

[eintracht] 21/3/2016 01:42

We've got a new CEO .... Boyd Timler. Seems pretty experienced.

[tightfist] 19/3/2016 17:05

Hi Justin,

Yes, a good day's trading with 7,6m traded, the rebalance absorbed and finishing on a high! Bodes well.....

Cheers, tightfist

[justinjjbuk] 19/3/2016 00:25

Niels

Thanks for the link. By coincidence I recently subscribed to Grant Williams' "Things that Make You Go Hmmm". He is an interesting guy.

Justin

[nielsc] 18/3/2016 06:45

Listened to this interesting interview with Grant Williams.



Cheers,
Niels

[nielsc] 18/3/2016 06:44

Justin,Good to know. Looks like MML is gaining some traction.Cheers,Niels

[justinjjbuk] 18/3/2016 05:52

Well, we got the rebalance volume with 6 million shares traded, but no weakness. So, some institution is out there buying in size!

Justin

[justinjjbuk] 17/3/2016 18:37

Just a reminder:

ASX rebalance after the close tomorrow. MML coming out of both the ASX 300 and All Ordinaries.

I couldn't find out how much money is indexed against these indices but there are a number of funds I came across, like Blackrock and Vanguard, that have indexed products attached to these indices. Vanguard, for example, have a $434 million dollar fund indexed against the ASX 300.



Not sure how much leeway these funds will have had in already partially completing the rebalance.

But there may be some weakness in MML tomorrow due to the rebalance, which could provide a chance for anyone looking to top up.

Justin

[chipperfrd] 14/3/2016 14:38

... and Egypt devalues by 13% today. The currency war just keeps on rolling along!

Good for Centamin though!

[chipperfrd] 14/3/2016 13:10

Following the theme of changes of local currencies to the USD being a factor in lower costs and therefore a possible improvement to the investment case - barring imposition of currency controls, heavier taxation/royalties/et al (ie Mexico!). Then I make the following observations:

Changes since early 2011 in USD/local currency.

Argentina ~ 74%
Russia ~ 59%
Ghana ~ 59%
Kazakhstan ~ 58%
Silver ~ 55%
Brazil ~ 55%
S.Africa ~ 53%
Azerbaijan ~ 52%
Turkey ~ 45%
Mexico ~ 32% (but have already made new onerous tax changes to PM miners)
Tanzania ~ 31%
Egypt ~ 25%
Canada ~ 25%
Australia ~ 24%
Liberia ~ 16%
IMF SDRs ~ 12% (purely out of interest)
Gold ~ 11% (but 29% from start of 2012)
GBP ~ 10%
Philippines ~ 6% (13% since start of 2014)

I have been biased towards including numbers from areas where I have a financial interest. But I think the table does emphasise the possible improvement to the investment case of quite a wide range of PM projects and producing mines across the world and not just Australia.
Chip

[4marlin] 14/3/2016 11:25

moving quite fast - very nice.
I am down on earlier purchases but up on my biggest and most recent....thankfully.
Believe that we have seen the bottom; bloody hope I'm right on that.