Medusa Share Discussion Threads

[cncventure] 24/3/2016 23:54

Ilostthelost, how have you come to the figure of $60M NPAT for the full year?

[tightfist] 24/3/2016 20:53

ILTL,

That's OK. It's one hell of a prospective cherry, with cash margin maybe rising by 40+% and volume by 13% in H1 2018.

[ilostthelot] 24/3/2016 16:58

Thanks for the replies Gents. I'm more of a buy and hold guy than trader so think I'll use one of the UK based broker's suggested . Hopefully the price won't go up to much while i get my funds in place.

Tightfist in all honesty my valuation methods are very rough. I'm projecting their current
Profit and giving it a multiple 10

So Npat for full year should come in around $60M which gives a me a rough valuation of $600 m or 800 Aus$

Its rough and ready but the undervaluation is clear to me, With no debt and significant infrastructure in place ,the cost savings to come will be the cherry on top.

[tightfist] 24/3/2016 11:39

Justin,

Yes, as far as MML is concerned I am a long-term "Buy and Hold" investor so I am content holding all my MML in a UK (Jarvis) ISA and instructing on a limit order basis, outside ASX market hours.

The other aspect I like about an ISA is not having to report trading in the CGT pages of my Tax Return - that's worth a lot to me!

Cheers, tightfist

[tightfist] 24/3/2016 11:33

ILTL,

I see a bigger current valuation anomaly/opportunity, even after the recent rise. The Service Shaft completion cost savings/production increase should be worth a lot, it's a shame we now have to wait until Summer 2017.

Cheers, tightfist

[weeeck] 24/3/2016 11:31

TDW do indeed allow you to trade these.

[justinjjbuk] 24/3/2016 11:31

ILTL

I hold MML in TD Waterhouse because I can utilise tax efficient wrappers like an ISA and SIPP to hold the stock and therefore don't have to worry about capital gains.

One advantage of an Aussie broker is that some services give you access in detail to who and how much is on the bid offer ledger. Occasionally, posters on Hot Copper put up a screen shot of this for various names and there is a lot of detail. Means that you can see, for example, if there is a big sell overhang at a certain price and therefore tailor your order limit efficiently.

For me, the tax wrapper trumps this direct market access. Further, if you are a 'buy and hold' type of investor rather than someone who likes to trade around a position, the Aussie broker detail won't make much difference.

Justin

[ilostthelot] 24/3/2016 11:21

Cheers tightfist I held MML back in the glory days from about 55p to 350 wish I'd held on a bit longer then .
I've kept an eye on them for a long time and with gold looking stronger over $1200 and with medusa having a new CEO , the cost efficiencies they've spoke about should reduce the AISC downwards ,now seems a good time to buy.

I value the company ,at least, over double the current market cap before any cost savings or further increases in Gold.

[tightfist] 24/3/2016 11:05

Paul,

Well done!, you did what I seriously thought about, but I was going to shoot for 68c limit! There was no volume to speak of, you can't blame a PI possibly taking a 80-100% gain in 4 months.
For me the chart rise is too fast (unsustainable) to look to the bottom of a rising channel for guidance. I am looking across the chart to 8-10 months ago and wondering about the 85c level which seems to have acted as Support then moving to Resistance, which maybe we encountered again last week? It may take a little while to break it.....

ILTL,

Jarvis Investment Management (jarvisim.co.uk) look after my MML/ASX trading pretty effectively, costs and Forex seem reasonable, particularly given the scope of the MML opportunity, IMHO.

Cheers, tightfist

[ilostthelot] 24/3/2016 09:58

I'm looking to buy back in here ,I'll need to setup a new broker. I'm pretty sure TD Waterhouse will allow me to trade these shares or would I be better with an Aus broker?
Any suggestions most welcome cheers.

[polaris] 24/3/2016 09:36

Managed to pick up 5k in early trading in Oz last night at 0.69 but the two other orders that i left in for another 15k were not reached. from my point of view the 1-day drop must be related to rebalancing of trackers. Happy at the result but it makes a mess of my existing trendline - i'll have to revisit that once the price settles down again. We are back above the 20dma, which is a positive end to the day.

regards,

Paul

[tightfist] 24/3/2016 08:32

Impressive trading performance last night. PoG was down $20-25 on the day during ASX trading hours; after an initial share price dip (mostly untraded?) , MML powers ahead and closes 5% higher!

[leedskier] 23/3/2016 20:16

Until I checked this evening I had not realised how far the AUD strength and GPD weakness had impacted on the exchange rate.

[tightfist] 23/3/2016 18:43

Paul,

I am not expecting to have to wait until end April for confirmation of FY production guidance which is only two months away - that would be crass. If all is on course I suppose we may just get a short message; if it isn't some info from the Operational Review will surely gave to be revealed? On that logic it's probably best that we don't get to know about the OR in the short term!

PoG is down about $10 since last ASX close; given the severity of today's lurch down and the size of recent MML gains, I can imagine some more panic profit-taking at tonight's open. We shall see!

Cheers, tightfist

[abacus23] 23/3/2016 18:30

In the day it was a little more, came back a little.

Let's see tonight.

I can see further weakness in the gold chart.

[polaris] 23/3/2016 17:21

RRS was only down a little over 2.1%. MML lost almost 12% yesterday. I'd hope any gold weakness is already in the price.

[abacus23] 23/3/2016 16:17

polaris, i see.

As i said, its always good to see other analysis, thanks.

With gold down 2.5%, i see more weakness in medusa tonight. RRS (randgold) has been massively hit today.

[polaris] 23/3/2016 15:45

abacus - 0.72 is the 20dma as of yesterday and also what i have taking the lows in the 0.30s and projecting forward to today through the lowest intraday price. I'm using IGs software. Some might argue that the rising trendline is more like 0.70 based on intraday prices as it depends where you draw your lines - charting is always open to personal interpretation. You would get another results if you based any trendline analysis on closing price...it is not an exact science. I projected through the intraday low on 29th Feb from low on 25th Jan this year.

Tightfist - well we have around a month until Q3FY update. I doubt we will see much between now and then but i'd hope for something with the production report at the very least.

regards,

Paul

[tightfist] 23/3/2016 14:36

Paul,

I was looking for the share price to consolidate in the 75-85c range before the next move forward.

I am not holding my breath awaiting feedback from the latest Operational Review, the shareholder information flow in November 2014 was wasn't exactly overwhelming. This time our brand-new CEO may understandably want to take his time to interpret it into any sort of communicable status/plan; last time we had the benefit of a recycled CEO who knew the tea leaves!

I just hope that the fall doesn't presage a reduction in the 2016FY guidance...... With PoG where it is there could be an opportunity tonight for the brave!


Cheers, tightfist

[abacus23] 23/3/2016 13:38

Polaris,

I can't seem to make 0.72 a trendline?

1/2/16 & 29/2/16 make the support 73.30 ish, which i think we have gone through.

Do you have a chart or dates which your trend line are based on?

I always like different analysis, it always helps to learn. Perhaps i have got my support wrong.

Thanks in advance.

[polaris] 23/3/2016 13:17

Well that was some fall in Oz overnight. I've been eyeing the rising support trendline and this was around 0.72 last night. This may well be an overhang created by the changes to the Aussie indices. I also see that gold has taken a pasting today, but it was post falls here. Not a lot changes for me here in terms of adding or trimming my holding until we see the feedback from the operational review and the next Qly production and outlook.

regards,

Paul

[tightfist] 23/3/2016 12:51

Justin,

Yes, RG's forthright style was quite refreshing, especially when you are parked 12,000 miles away from the action and feeling somewhat marooned! However, I have a sneaky feeling that his style didn't fit very well in the MML Board room.

Clearly shareholders were "fed a line" several times over by PH-B. That he is history is good news; what concerns me is that it all happened under the watchful(?) eye of AT; or maybe he was wrapped-up in BGC affairs, looking the other way, and cannot sniff economy of truth.

I am open minded about BT pursuing Ban. or Guin. open pit projects to add shareholder value. The first thing I would like to see is that BT bought his first shares today during the lurch down - Skin in the Game counts!

Cheers, tightfist

[abacus23] 23/3/2016 11:43

Is this the drop to $1,150 for gold?

Everybody seems to be talking about it!

[justinjjbuk] 23/3/2016 00:22

Niels

No it doesn't. But he links to a variety of interesting videos at the end of the newsletter, some of which relate to Real Vision's contributors.

I pondered Real Vision, but these letters/services can add up in cost. Apart from ttmygh, I followed Blue Lynx into John Doody's "Gold Stock Analyst". This is the grand daddy of the gold stock newsletters (and covers silver in my subscription) and has been around forever.

Their universe is much larger cap than the area I prefer to operate within, but I like their stock evaluation approach. I sort of benchmark my valuation approach in the small and mid cap names against GSA's approach to the larger caps.

This newsletter also gives me a sense of sentiment. If one can understand what the majors like Newcrest, Goldcorp and so on are going (playing offence or defence) then you get a better idea of what will happen to the smaller names.

During the difficult investment years, I also stopped subscribing to two other newsletters I love: "Grant's Interest Rate Observer" and Fred Hickey's "Hi-Tech Investor". Despite the names of these letters, Jim Grant and Fred Hickey are raging gold bulls, but put things in the perspective of the larger investment universe.

As my gold stocks have done rather better recently (MML, TRY, RSG, MOY in particular) I may pick up these newsletters again.

Justin