Medusa Share Discussion Threads

[chipperfrd] 20/2/2016 13:07

Cyber

The average gold price over MML's 1H was US$1,117/oz.

The average (so far) over 2H has been US$1,123/oz (although I have not yet added this last week's closing price - so the average will have crept a little higher).

So basically, taking the gold price down to (say) US$1,100/oz does not really make a big difference to my estimate of full year EPS as I was not factoring-in a big jump in gold.

At US$1,100/oz for the rest of 2H16, the second half EPS would appear to be c. 15.6c, making a total of c. 30c for the financial year. For a PoG of US$1,050/oz the 2H EPS drops to 14c and the full year falls to 29c.

Chip

[atlantic57] 20/2/2016 12:09

Chip in the spirit of Constructive Discussion how do posters feel about the following.

Yes it is true that from your postings the table of goldies traded in Canada,
say does indeed show sky high pe ratios.

However medusa has never had to my knowledge a sky high rating.

However in relative terms the rise and fall of say i am gold and medusa does not appear to dissimilar.

In other words everything is relative to a particular market.

[cyberbub] 20/2/2016 11:45

Chip

You were estimating A$0.33 EPS for the FY to June 2016.

What does your model suggest if the gold price were to fall back to $1150 or $1100?

I am just trying to run some risk scenarios here and see if they match your estimates.

Thanks.

[greenleaf] 19/2/2016 11:05

Does anyone know what was the reason for the 20 minute halt in trading of MML on the ASX starting around 11.20pm last night?

I can't see any announcements from that time

greenleaf

[justinjjbuk] 19/2/2016 10:22

I am not sure that H1 will provide a positive catalyst to move the stock higher. Think for the near term the stock will swing around on POG.

Main point of interest for me when H1 comes out is to determine the quality of the cash build on the balance sheet we saw in the quarterly update. We saw cash move up by $4.4 million. I hope this isn't due to a large jump in payables. The quarterly mentions that various large pieces of equipment related to the service shaft were due to be shifted from South Africa to the mine in January. This will likely give rise to some lumpy cash payments related to this equipment, so cash build could be quite erratic from quarter to quarter. The H1 report will give us more visibility on this.

Obviously, in terms of the share price, what we want to see is a steady build up in cash on the balance sheet from quarter to quarter.

I also maintain a spread sheet that records the London fixes (at which most mined gold is sold) and just forecasts the current gold price out to the end of the quarter. Based on this, my estimate for average gold price for MML in Q3 will be $1,168, which compares with $1,096 at Q2. If we assume that production in Q3 is identical to Q2 (30,835), then the $72 jump in the average price of gold sold will lift cash flow by $2.2 million; of course, no additional cost for this (just a product of the jump in gold prices), so it should all fall to the bottom line.

The good news, therefore, is that even if we get some lumpy cash outflows in Q3 for new service shaft kit, this extra $2.2 million gives MML a nice cushion (and if gold keeps rising through to the end of Q3 it will be bigger). So, hopefully, that $4.4 million cash build on the balance sheet in Q2 won't be an outlier.

Justin

[nielsc] 19/2/2016 08:28

rt,Thanks for posting that. The financial system has run amok. I do believe there is a reset of sorts coming.Cheers,Niels

[tightfist] 18/2/2016 20:39

Cyberhub,

The last two H1financials were issued on 24/02/2015 and 27/02/2014, leading to the expectation for next week.

One would anticipate the recent performance of gold and gold miners (and the Ruffer Fund) would continue to attract new money, though the strength of equities in the past few days may have dampened interest; PoG response tonight maybe suggests reawakened interest.

With Ruffer on-board there is the distinct possibility of a virtuous circle building the sp, as opposed to the destruction by the Van Eck GDXJ ETF where fund redemptions and forced share sales with mismatched liquidity tanked the MML share price during 2015, exactly the scenario painted by David Stockman in the above article.

Cheers, tightfist

[atlantic57] 18/2/2016 19:04

What has caused the surge in gold today does anyone know.?

[cyberbub] 18/2/2016 17:35

Ruffer have clearly helped to boost the share price over the last 10 days. There is a risk that it might fall back a bit I suppose, assuming they have stopped buying. I also often find that SPs fall back on results. We need the gold price to shown signs of being sustainably above $1200... It is climbing as I write, but I think needs a bit more consolidation if we are to gather strength for another push towards $1300. Just my view - the share price here seems severEly undervalued but is critically reliant on the POG.

GLA NAI

[cyberbub] 18/2/2016 16:24

Does anyone have a firm date for the H1 financials?

[deka1] 18/2/2016 13:23

RT thanks that's a cracking read mate,

[roguetreader] 18/2/2016 12:07

An excellent article by Dave Stockman tearing yet another strip off the insane monetary approach currently being proposed by Central Banks and Governments. If you read it, you won't want any of your money in ETFs afterwards.

RT

[tightfist] 17/2/2016 22:21

My Cup and Handle interpretation completed in style when we left 41c behind. I guess we are all hoping for a vigorous break of the 62c level next week when we see the H1 financials. I certainly am not anticipating the alternative classic TA pattern of an inverted Head and Shoulders requiring a return to around 40c........

[abacus23] 17/2/2016 18:28

Chip, as far as I'm concerned the right hand side of the cup is formed, gives a target around €1, which would be a good start.

[atlantic57] 17/2/2016 17:00

Speedsgh thank you i am not well up on charting.

[chipperfrd] 17/2/2016 16:48

Abacus,

I am waiting for us to actually climb the RH side of the cup - let alone the handle.

IMO you need to look at a multi-year chart to determine a C&H rather than a few weeks or months. But then I am not really into TA.
Chip

[abacus23] 17/2/2016 16:38

deka1, cup and handle forming on MML chart ?

I was waiting for the handle!! ;)

[atlantic57] 17/2/2016 16:36

what does this mean deka??

[deka1] 17/2/2016 16:16

cup and handle forming on MML chart ?

[deka1] 17/2/2016 11:13

Here is the asx link guys just type MML in to the search box

[deka1] 17/2/2016 11:04

cyber, aba, nothing comes through London , its all ASX , you can register with mml to have emails ,with announcements , as I have long ago, or just check MML on the ASX.

[speedsgh] 17/2/2016 11:00

Links to MML recent announcements on ASX here -

Ruffer appear to have bought 1m shares on 2/2, another 1m on 10/2 + a further 371,575 on 15/2, all at a cost of just over AUD 1.1m (just over GBP 550k).

Ruffer do not show in the list of top 20 shareholders on the MML website but they do show under sub-heading Substantial Shareholders (not yet updated to show last night's announcement) -

[eintracht] 17/2/2016 09:43

They did announce it on the ASX today.

[abacus23] 17/2/2016 09:25

I thought they had to announce for every 1% increase from 5% onwards.

[cyberbub] 17/2/2016 09:22

Do MML not have to announce it now that Ruffed have gone above 5%?