Medusa Share Discussion Threads

[cyberbub] 11/2/2016 21:05

Why is it rubbish, Chip?

[chipperfrd] 11/2/2016 18:54

An interesting article - but contains completely rubbish supply/demand data from the WGC (as usual) !!




Chip

[atlantic57] 11/2/2016 18:49

Chip,
Thanks the guidance !

[chipperfrd] 11/2/2016 17:02

Atlantic,

I tend to find that the market multiples given to gold producers on N.American exchanges can be at 'nose-bleed' levels compared to the LSE and the ASX.

It has always been that way for some reason and makes stock selection a lot more tricky (at least for me) as I am not at all inclined to buy stocks on 20x PERs plus!

If you check some of the P/E figures given in that link you will see Goldcorp on 72.4x for 2016 and Agnito-Eagle on 94.1x for goodness sake! And there are quite a few others at similar valuations, many of which I can corroborate from my own worksheets.

So due care with these NAZ, NYSE, TSX, listed stocks is recommended.
Chip

[abacus23] 11/2/2016 16:58

pixi, take a look at randgold. rrs. they seem ok at the minute.

[ilostthelot] 11/2/2016 16:57

Pixi gold and pm miners have been going down for the last 4 years. I think it's time the trend changed from down to up!!

[pixi] 11/2/2016 16:50

What goes up always comes back down again.

[atlantic57] 11/2/2016 16:50

Thank you chip I think their all in costs are circa 1000 dollars an ounce but I notice the recent
Rally in hold has given them a circa 40% uplift.

[chipperfrd] 11/2/2016 16:50

abacus23,

Looks pretty close! I am estimating c. A$ 33c EPS for FY16 at US$1,200 gold.
Chip

[cyberbub] 11/2/2016 16:47

Not quite abacus. You would need to multiply by 1.4 to get from USD to AUD, not by 2 (that's the GBP > AUD rate).

But MML could easily 4- or 5-bag from here, *if* gold stays at these levels, which is of course far from guaranteed...

Chipprfrd will have a better calculation, he runs detailed spreadsheets on a number of goldies.

NAI

[chipperfrd] 11/2/2016 16:46

Atlantic,

Iamgold is not one that I have included in my producers workbook, so I do not have any real detail to pass on.

However, given their ratings here : (see gold smallcap table) I would be a little careful as they appear to be loss-making.
Chip

[justinjjbuk] 11/2/2016 16:43

Jimbo

Given the size of move in gold, I actually don't think that most of the gold miners are frothy at all. True, many have doubled off their lows, but at those lows the market was valuing them as if gold would continue to fall to Goldman's target last year of $850 (recently raised to $1,000).

In other words the market was valuing them as if they were cash flow negative even when a whole bunch of names had restructured and brought their AISCs down by $200 or so and were already very cash flow positive in Q4 CY2015.

So I think the sharp jumps we have seen over the last three weeks only account for a part of the under-valuation in these names BEFORE gold popped. I am looking at my screen and gold is now above $1250. If gold stays here, then the move in the miners has barely begun.

I think anyone who waits for a pullback here could be completely left behind if you believe, as I do, gold is likely now in a bull market. If you think gold will melt back down below $1100 then that is a different story.

Justin

[abacus23] 11/2/2016 16:40

EPS Calculation?

Gold Price - AISC x Ounces Mined / 217 mil shares, convert to AUD.
1250 - 950 x 125,000 / 217,000,000 x 2 = 0.345 AUD Dollars per share.

Have i done this correct?

[atlantic57] 11/2/2016 15:57

Has anyone on here got any knowledge of a gold stock I am gold.Symbol Iag on the Nasdaq.
Thanks

[ilostthelot] 11/2/2016 15:09

Gold fever.MML is great value at $1 never mind 50c

[cyberbub] 11/2/2016 15:00

Jimbo the RSI on Medusa is still not seriously overbought, it's only just got through 70? Could easily see further gains. No idea whether it will, but on a p/e of 2 it seems hopeful?

GLA NAI

[jimbo55] 11/2/2016 13:18

Can't believe how far Gold has run and so quickly. Very overbought right now and ripe for a correction (hopefully small). $1200 was a key level though, and it's blown right through it. Personally, I find it a very encouraging sign as it's the first higher high that Gold has made since the big smash in April 2013. I'm just looking for a higher low now (a low that is higher than the last low) to give me some confirmation this isn't just a spike up and false breakout. You can see the higher high clearly in the following simple chart:

hxxp://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=XAU&to=USD&view=5Y

I wouldn't go buying a ton more Gold mining shares right now as they are currently really frothy, but it's bloody awesome to have been holding them before and through this move! :)

[deka1] 11/2/2016 12:11

Will the Fed /crimex come in with a 100t sell of twilight zone paper gold, and smack it back down and take the paper to real ratio upto 600 to one .

[deka1] 11/2/2016 11:59

Jeez , never got the words out my mouth and its through 1240, in no time at all,
this is a powerful move guys .

[deka1] 11/2/2016 11:58

well gold through 1230,begining to look like 1300 is nailed on to me,bit on the quick side though,are the ETFs picking up gold ?

[deka1] 11/2/2016 10:50

Looks like gold may make 1230 today, just touched it and came back to 1225.
All the Banks are in dire straights, that's money for nothing for ya,lol
but no chics for free

[deka1] 11/2/2016 08:09

cheers mate, good luck

[atlantic57] 11/2/2016 08:02

I am back in now but I have a lot less funds now!
I also bought shanta gold

[deka1] 11/2/2016 07:48

Hi Atlantic, hope your well, did you get back into MML ?