Medusa Share Discussion Threads

[atlantic57] 06/12/2015 15:17

Agreed chip q e has fed the markets like a sugar drip.
However I was surprised by the strength of the Dow on Friday given draghi did not give
The markets what they were hoping for.

The central bankers must surely be near the end of the road.
I suspect what has happened in Greece and Cyprus is a reasonable take on what will happen elsewhere.

Super Rich no change
Middle class downwards adjustments in living standards.
Poorer people significantly worse off

[chipperfrd] 06/12/2015 13:59

We have seen the inflation all right - in Stocks and Bonds!

But it is all coming to a head now. Like all things, there are limits and they are being stretched to breaking point. I see it as being only a matter of time before the system breaks down once again. The question is, will the rebuild, when it comes, be for the good of all or just benefit the few?
Chip

[atlantic57] 06/12/2015 13:39

Hello plasy we exchanged posts in the last golden era !

Your post makes good sense to me.
As to timing I am not sure.I was 100% wrong in 2009.
I thought qe would lead to high inflation and height interest rates.
I fixed my mortgage and overpaid interest as. Result.
I can't see how the fed and other central bankers can hold it together but they seem to be.

Perhaps the fed will make very small increases when they eventually do in trade say 1/10 of a percent

[tightfist] 06/12/2015 10:24

Hi Niels,

Me too, I added last week for what has become my lowest ever Buying sp, even lower than November 2008, when PoG was ranging between $713/$816.

IMHO something has to happen to realise the value of the ongoing & increasing cashflow. Fingers crossed that the Board do not squander it on an ill-conceived or poorly executed expansion plan, beyond Co-O.

Cheers, tightfist

[nielsc] 06/12/2015 08:55

Plasybryn,This is what I have been thinking to myself as well. Push gold down so that when it rises it is starting from a low level.Can the fed really raise rates and bust themselves? Or will some last minute excuse be wheeled out?Increased my MML holding on Thursday. Cheers,Niels

[rrr] 05/12/2015 18:05

Still to launch it seems...

And

[plasybryn] 05/12/2015 16:34

abacus:
Just a bit more on this new paradigm. There are many who understand these things far better than me, so excuse me if this isn't totally clear; but let me just float this.

The FED has apparently circa $4.5 trillion worth of existing bonds, most of which they purchased when interest rates were basically zero. Out of interest, in conjuring all the new money out of thin air from multiple QE programs, they created about $3.5 trillion worth of liabilities which were offset by the $3.5 trillion worth of bonds they purchased.


Given the razor thin capital the FED has in reserve, they can only afford a tiny 1.3% loss on the bond portfolio before they are technically insolvent.
We know when you raise interest rates bond values fall.
So if they raise interest rates too much, they will be creating their own insolvency.
That is way IMO on this occasion there will be a rush to physical gold & silver.
The FED knows this and that is why during this extended period of manipulated interest rates, gold & silver have had their value artificially controlled (Chip has described the amazing paper to physical ratio) to maintain confidence in the dollar and ensure when the reversal comes, gold & silver start from a low point.

I would be delighted if others can add to this theory or even rubbish it, if I have got it round my ears.

I'm currently confident Gold & Silver will recover strongly very soon.

[chipperfrd] 04/12/2015 23:02

Yes, even a puny 0.25% rise is apparently equivalent to reversing ALL of their QE2 programme in Repo terms! The US Fed/ESF has a veritable mountain of problems to face. We certainly live in 'interesting' times!

The drain on the COMEX 'deliverable' gold continues. Now down to only 3.78 tonnes against 1,216 tonnes of open derivative contracts. So a new record of 322:1.

Gold Futures contracts on COMEX represent 49% of annual global supply.

Silver Futures contracts on COMEX represent 93% of annual global supply.
Deliverable Silver is 1,335 tonnes against 25,391 tonnes of open contracts. So leverage is 19:1.

Chip

[plasybryn] 04/12/2015 17:21

The US $ is due a correction. Normally a rate rise means more inward investment and out of gold, but the world has changed.
The economies are fragile and a rate rise will cause a serious hit to debt payments. The US with QE has bought its own bonds & will have to pay an increased rate of interest on this inflated debt.
As a result gold as a safe haven will increase in value.

[abacus23] 04/12/2015 16:07

Plasbryn,

Do you, I thought it would strengthen the dollar, therefore make gold weaker?

[plasybryn] 04/12/2015 15:50

I think gold will go up on a rate rise. It has gone down on weak rates.

[abacus23] 04/12/2015 15:27

Gold shooting up!

Trouble is 15/16 December potential rate rise!

[tightfist] 03/12/2015 10:12

Hi Steve,

Thanks for your reminder regarding the alternative CHI-X market. Taking 20% as the CHI-X rule-of-thumb, the average November daily volume reported by Yahoo! on ASX of 757k becomes 908k. If we assume equal Buys-Sells and an average trading position holding period of 2 months (is that realistic?), that suggests to me that ~10% of shares are held by "traders", ~80% by longer-term holders (presumably still including GD), 4.9% by Dimensional and 5.4% by Paradice (I calculate the recent net reduction declared by Dimensional to be a mere 84k shares which took them just below 5%).

I suppose it's a little reassurring that there are two ~5% holders on the register, to apply some pressure on the Board.

What next? Do we sit idly by and await developments, or is there a feasible mechanism to press for change. Justin - any comments, please?


Cheers, tightfist

[stevea171] 02/12/2015 20:53

Tightfist. Re trading volume. This is now complicated by the start of MML trading on the alternative CHI-X (Australia) platform starting about a month ago.

ADVFN still reports only ASX trade volume, not total volume (ASX + CHI-X).
CHI-X volume for MML can be anything from about 10% to more than 30% on any particular day so is not inconsequential.
eg yesterday reported volume for MML trades was:
ASX: 985k
CHI-X: 130k
Total: 1,115k

It seems some (all?) brokers in particular are using CHI-X probably because the cost of trading is likely to be lower plus other advantages. You need to have access to the CHI-X platform which brokers/institutions will have but for PI's the trades going through are transparent if you don't have access to the platform.

So as a rule of thumb to get total daily trade volume for Medusa now you need to add an approx average 20% each day to the volume you see reported by ADVFN.

[deka1] 02/12/2015 17:34

TF hi, I still hold ,

Do you know if GD still holds over 2mil shares

[tightfist] 02/12/2015 17:28

Hi CP42,

Let's wait and see how this line of discussion develops on this BB.

We have bemoaned the apparent trading mentality on ASX, but 1 million volume (~500,000 each way?) is a busy day nowadays, which suggests to me there is a large solid body of committed holders, encircled by a band of traders/investors/shorters seeking to profit from low volume volatility?

I am interested in engagement with the "large solid body" and their willingness to make their voices heard - or not. How many shareholders are accessible through this channel?


Cheers, tightfist

[cp42kx07] 02/12/2015 16:45

tightfist

Fair point on the incompetence / deviousness. Sadly both damage shareholder wealth.

The motion would be a straightforward 'no confidence' one but I suspect, despite his considerable residual holding, that GD would probably like to enjoy his retirement.

In terms of support I can muster 3 shareholders (total of 440,792 shares).

If, as has been suggested here previously, many of the ASX investors are traders rather than long-term holders are they likely to be interested in a corporate action?

I have no connections in Perth / WA.

I suppose the problems inherent in carrying-out such a corporate cull are why these things almost only happen when initiated by activist major (private) investors supported by institutions.

[tightfist] 02/12/2015 15:36

(Duplicate posting)

[tightfist] 02/12/2015 15:36

CP42,

When I was involved in a tricky business situation an old friend wisely advised me "Don't confuse Incompetence with Deviousness" and I find myself facing that division in respect of MML.

No, you are not paranoid; we are jointly sifting the very limited amount of communicated info to ponder our prospects in investing in MML. Putting aside Options, a lot of posters on here probably have more skin-in-the-game with Ordinary Shares than individual Directors/SM and the likelihood of Options (all exercisable at A$1 ?) holders getting out with a profit on an opportunistic bid must be minimal.

But…… that doesn’t mean to say they or their chums don’t stand to profit from a low-ball bid. If you want to dig deeper into dastardly speculation, a bid could come from a vehicle associated with GD and RW; and for all we know, soon to be joined by RG as well? Is that another reason they want to accumulate cash?

Speedsgh comments about 5% or 100 shareholders is interesting. Maybe we all need to take a look at the Articles. Paradice (assuming their 5.4% holds good since 30th June) hold the immediate keys; otherwise (if correct) could we muster 100 shareholders’ names off this BB? I could enrol 4 shareholders immediately, and a 5th would be easy.

What would be the motion? If his health and interest is up to it, install GD as non-exec. Chairman and RG as CEO on a reconstituted Board, along with RD; Company Secretary tbd. With the recent/current goings-on and share price trajectory the Board would be very complacent to believe that they still command 50+% of the votes.

Do we have any BB posters on the ground in/around Perth WA to do some sleuthing? I gather GD and RG are neighbours.....


Cheers, tightfist

[cp42kx07] 02/12/2015 14:50

speedsgh

I have a similar suspicion. I can well imagine a 'friendly' (to the board) takeover at a ludicrous price just before the benefits of the shaft improvements etc start to show. The MML MC is now almost at a 'chump change' level. Paranoid? Perhaps.

[cp42kx07] 02/12/2015 14:45

Hi tightfist

I certainly agree that matters improved considerably under GD but my issue is with the lack of consistency. In light of the shockingly poor investor relations under PHB investors are, understandably, wary of MML and it is therefore even more important that the company exercises extreme care in all aspects of its strategy formulation, implementation and communication. Failure to do so will... (see current sp!).

As such I tend to have sympathy with stevea171. I am not confident in the abilities of the current directors.

I suspect that the lack of almost any major shareholders (institutional or other) suits the directors just fine.

Whilst nothing is impossible, IMO any form of corporate action originating in the UK would appear to be most unlikely to succeed. Even if one could raise sufficient interest to call a meeting (5% or 100 shareholders) appointing / removing directors at the meeting would I assume require a majority (I haven't checked MML's Articles).

[speedsgh] 02/12/2015 14:14

I'm beginning to sense a nasty whiff around MML. Not sure I would trust Mr Teo as far as I can flick him. Without an MD, MML is effectively rudderless + I don't like the board set up (discussed on this thread recently) one bit. I do hope it's not being set up to be sold on the cheap!

[tightfist] 02/12/2015 13:18

Hi CP42,

Until the last couple of weeks, I would have said that MML had done a great job on shareholder communications under GD over the past 14 months, following the most dire 22 months imaginable under PHB's "CEO leadership".

The Strategy has also been pretty clear over the past 9 months since the Mine Review was completed and effectively drip-fed into communications. This is consistent to the extent that one can play spot-the-differences between the multiple presentations.

Steve has made some cutting remarks regarding A. Teo with which I wholeheartedly agree - I would go a lot further than "tainted", but not on a public BB. The structure of the Board and, in particular, the apparent lack of succession planning are unforgivable; let's face it, 15 months have passed since the need for succession planning was staring the Board in the face - Geoff stepped-up and did the decent thing, and the Board have trashed that contribution. We seem to be hostages (unless we individually decide to crystallise our paper losses) to a Board that lurches from one self-inflicted crisis to another.

The biggest snag is what is the mechanism to hold the Board/Chair to account? I think that Paradice are the only remaining substantial shareholder - otherwise it's down to PI's like you and I and how do we effectively bring pressure to bear?

Maybe that's a different and better cause for Goldminer's initiative? At the very least the Chair has got an awful lot of explaining to do.

Cheers, tightfist

[cp42kx07] 02/12/2015 11:07

MML (-21.10%) has diverged considerably from XGD (+6.98%) over the past 3 months. Given the recent share price performance it appears that the market lacks confidence in the directors / management.

IMO investor communications continue to be unimpressive and the result is a feeling of uncertainty in the company's ability to perform. Whilst historical failings are doubtless significant in the minds of investors, I do believe that the directors' inability to consistently present a coherent, all-encompassing strategy is seriously damaging this company (e.g recent changes to the board and delayed replacement of the CEO).

The successful management of investor communications is neither complicated nor expensive, however it does demand common sense and some understanding of the minds of both existing and potential shareholders. Unfortunately the vast majority of directors (whether ASX, LSE, TSX or US) appear to fail dismally in this regard and in this regard MML are certainly no better than most.

[chipperfrd] 01/12/2015 18:06

A good description - but unfortunately it sets the price - at least for the time being!