Medusa Share Discussion Threads

[atlantic57] 27/10/2015 07:18

2015/2016
Should see a significant advance in share price on all known factors.

[deka1] 27/10/2015 06:47

 Production: 31,495 ounces at a head grade 6.8 g/t gold, cash costs of US$439 per ounce, AISC US$953 per ounce (June 2015 quarter of 26,542 ounces at a head grade of 6.01 g/t gold, cash costs of US$390 per ounce, and AISC US$1,076 per ounce).  Production guidance: Guidance for FY 2015-16 is 120,000 to 130,000 ounces.  Mill performance: gold recovery averaged 94% (June 2015 quarter 94%).  Development: A total of 7,269 metres of horizontal and vertical development completed for September quarter.  Shaft haulage: Haulage system de-bottle-necking continuing. L8 ore hoisting competing with materials for increasing development at Levels 8, 9 and 10, and waste generation from Service Shaft and ventilation raises.  Service Shaft: Service Shaft collar concrete pour completed, underground Alimak raising completed, blind sink from surface to Level 2 underway, stripping of raises to final dimensions to commence in early CY 2016.  Resource drilling: Extensive underground drilling program, targeting resource extensions from Levels 8 to 16 to commence in December quarter. Co-O MINE EXPLORATION  Resources and Reserves: New estimates show Indicated Resources and Probable Reserves remain essentially constant at 604k ozs at 12.2 g/t gold and 427k ozs at 7.33 g/t gold respectively.  Underground resource drilling results include 2.1m @ 295 g/t Au; 2.35m @ 66 g/t Au; 0.8m @ 84 g/t Au; 1m @ 53 g/t Au; and 2.15m @ 19 g/t Au.  Drilling postponed for West Road 17 veins.  Surface exploration continuing at South Agsao veins. TAMBIS REGION  Bananghilig (B1) Deposit: Resource modelling commencing.  Guinhalinan Prospect: Scout drilling commencing in December quarter. COAL EXPLORATION  Regional mapping of coal bearing stratigraphy nearing completion, including locating several seams ranging up to 3.2 metres thick.  Scout drilling to commence in December quarter. CORPORATE & FINANCIALS (unaudited)  Total cash and bullion on hand at the end of the quarter of approximately US$11.6 million (approximately US$14.6 million at 30 June 2015), reduced by net cash movements in the creditor/receivable accounts.  During the quarter, the Board of Directors, CEO and Company Secretary voluntarily and unconditionally agreed to reduce their fees/salaries by 15% for the current financial yea

[eintracht] 27/10/2015 02:08

Quarterly Activities Report out here in Oz.

[deka1] 26/10/2015 19:00

Thanks Chip, your efforts are much appreciated.

[chipperfrd] 26/10/2015 14:02

I wrote the following on another blog in response to comments regarding the possible resource in the next 8 lower levels at Co-O (ie to L16) and I thought I should also copy it here for review.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

As to the quantity of resources/reserves that may well be proved up in the years ahead - that takes considerable time on a level-by-level basis and can only be confirmed as reserves during the stope development process (ie. resources are purely inferred until stope development along the veins confirm width and grade).

Deeper drilling can only confirm the presence (and thus continuity of veins) and given the nature of narrow-vein mining it is not economically possible to prove up a bulk resource by drilling alone. Hence the rolling annual updates provided by miners with narrow-vein systems.

However, one can speculate using current and past mining, of Co-O as to what the probability might be for recoverable gold oz on each lower level.

Strike length along the system is c. 2,000m. SG is c. 2.5. Diluted head grade (stope ore + development ore is 7.2 g/t). Stope height is 50m. Mining recovery is c. 90% and process recovery is c. 94%.

If one aggregates the total width of mineralised veins across the system it is then possible to calculate the volume (and hence tonnage) for each level along the strike length. ie.

2,000 x 8 x 50 = 800,000 sq metres (ie length x width x height)

At a rock SG of 2.5 this equates to 2,000,000 tonnes of mineralised ore per level.

At a diluted head grade of 7.2 g/t, a mining recovery of 90% and a process recovery of 94%, this then equates to an estimated gold recovery of c. 391.7 koz per level.

Hence, one could speculate that the next 8 lower levels (ie to L16) may well contain c. 3.133 Moz, but it will be many years to prove the accuracy (or not) of that speculative estimate.

If there is an overall increase in vein width with depth (as is often the case with epithermal systems) then we could run the same estimate at say 10m of aggregate vein width across the system.

Leaving all other metrics other than vein width unchanged produces the result of c. 489Koz per level. Hence, the next 8 lower levels might well contain an estimated 3.9Moz of recoverable gold.

Chip

[abc125] 25/10/2015 23:44

Be careful not to beleive everything in zerohedge.

[chipperfrd] 25/10/2015 19:59

goldminer70,

It varies quite a bit and different agencies come up with different numbers.

I did note down the figures published by GFMS for global mine production from 2004 to 2013. The average over those 10 years was 2,657 tonnes per annum.

So 2015 will probably fall between 2,700 and 3,000 tonnes from mine production. However, these last few years have made some deposits uneconomic; there has been significant cutbacks in new mine development; exploration budgets have been cut; some mines have been closed or mothballed; workforces have been cut; mine economics have forced cut-off grades to be raised.

Put it all together and it looks like the next decade will see a declining level of global production as year by year depleted reserves are not replaced by fresh deposits.

Chip

[deka1] 25/10/2015 19:24

gold70, its probably below 2500t now,but Chip may have the exact figures,

[goldminer70] 25/10/2015 17:15

Sorry Chip for my ignorance but what is the global production?
Goldminer70

[chipperfrd] 25/10/2015 11:08

Meanwhile Chinese retail demand continues unabated.

w/e 9th Oct 50.895t
w/e 16th Oct 53.414t

So far this year they have consumed 2,061.9t and heading for an annualised total of c. 2,643t for 2015.

So the Chinese population alone are taking pretty much all global production.

Chip

[abc125] 25/10/2015 00:50

Zero hedge is a tabloid comic with an ultra bearish agenda. Amusing though.

[stevea171] 24/10/2015 21:53

The CB's defending the 200 day MA's for both gold and silver as if their life depends on it (as it probably does!).

Gold and silver are not allowed to decisively cross over the 200 dma's and stay there because that would trigger even more hedge fund and investment interest in the PM's. So the recent up move has to be killed before it can become further established or (heaven forbid!) a stampede.

In particular, watch silver which has been the stronger of the two PM's.

[roguetreader] 24/10/2015 15:13

Just looked in my TDW account and the MML shares that took me six months to get transferred from Selftrade to my TDW account a year ago seem to have magically disappeared!! No doubt after some more chasing they will return. BUT never again will I be tempted to save a few quid by transferring shares between different Exchanges, the next time I will sell and repurchase and take the hit.
RT

[chipperfrd] 24/10/2015 14:49

I have seen some pretty hard comments from producers along the way, but it is difficult for them to make direct allegations within official market reports.

However, here is a reference to a direct complaint to the CFTC from First Majestic Silver this June.

[rogash] 24/10/2015 12:28

Correct me if I am wrong, but the miners themselves never seem to complain about the manipulation.

[chipperfrd] 24/10/2015 11:36

CP

Unfortunately, I come to the same conclusions.

I certainly observed a sea change in gold price performance starting from the commencement of QE3 - and there has been no letup since.

Given that the COMEX determines the global spot price the underlying leverage is extraordinary. Current Registered oz (ie available for delivery) are 202,333 yet the amount of paper gold (Open Interest) currently is 46,779,200 oz (ie 231:1).

At the current gold price this infers that there is open traded value of futures contracts of US$54,498m based on US$236m of actual physical metal in the COMEX faults.

What makes it even worse is when one also includes the traded volume on the LBMA (which is far larger in trading terms than the COMEX).

YoY trading volume on the LBMA to August was US$257,200m. But the LBMA itself admits that this is only a netted-out figure and that gross volume is between 4x and 9x the netted volume. This infers that gross traded gold on the LBMA is somewhere between US$1-2 Trillion per annum!

The LBMA is almost totally opaque so actual paper to real leverage on that exchange is impossible to calculate but insiders (like the Indian Central Bank) have stated around 90:1 to 100:1.

But the LBMA aside, the acceptance by the system that a COMEX leveraged at 230:1 is a true representation for global gold price discovery just seems to confirm the highest level of official sanction for gold price suppression.

Various commentators have been 'banging the drum' over all this for years without any follow-up by mainstream press or regulators. The latest of such comments comes from Bill Holter:

Chip

[cp42kx07] 24/10/2015 10:17

During the past few years one has increasingly seen comments either stating or implying that the gold market has become ‘unfair’ due to manipulation by the bullion banks at the behest of (or with the connivance of) central banks (principally the US). The explanation proposed for such state interference is that, left ‘unmanagedR17;, gold would act as the ‘canary in the mine’ highlighting the massive dilution of fiat currencies brought about by QE & ZIRP.

This manipulation manifests itself as price suppression achieved through the creation of (paper) gold contracts that flood the market whenever demand for gold increases (e.g. most recently w/e 17/10/15). If there is a potentially unlimited supply of (paper) gold then it is hard (perhaps impossible) to envisage a situation where the price received by miners for their real (physical) gold will reflect underlying supply and demand. The tail (paper) is clearly wagging the dog (physical).

Unless and until there is reform of the paper market, or perhaps a separation of the two markets, gold has now effectively become a state controlled commodity. Due to perceived (partial) substitutability the same problem also exists for silver.

Some gold miners (hopefully Medusa) will always perform better than others based on the usual factors but given the gold price control mechanism that now exists (and regardless of 130/150/170k pa, reducing AISC etc) I am no longer convinced that the MML share price will be able to regain more than a fraction (AUD 2.00?) of its previous peak as it is operating in a sector subject to the systemic risk of price manipulation.

All somewhat pessimistic I grant you and I would certainly be delighted if someone with a more in-depth knowledge of the PM markets were able to refute the central price suppression premise…


CP

[deka1] 23/10/2015 15:27

abacus hi and good luck, imo MML is a very good company, on the road back ,I believe it will do very well for us.

[abacus23] 23/10/2015 07:36

Considering the Quarter results are out Monday / Tuesday (going on past dates) the share price has held up very well.

It used to be a bit leaky, unless the results are good.

Looking to add more, just waiting for the results.

[deka1] 21/10/2015 10:20

Cheers TF, we should be about the same in our numbers then.

Eintracht hi, hope you are well,it must be an unwritten rule in the crimex that you don't stand for delivery EVER,and if you do don't take the subway home,too easy to fall on to the tracks , with all that pushing and shoving LOL

[tightfist] 21/10/2015 08:42

Hi deka,

In September 2014 they averaged 4.3g from the upper levels. I trust that the new mining contracts are, to a degree, improving grades there to, although RG did make them sound to be fairly exhausted. FWIW I am working on 4.9g going forward.

Cheers, tightfist

[eintracht] 21/10/2015 03:09

I had a listen with interest to the podcast previously posted by Chip regarding the gold manipulation and the issuing of short contracts whenever the price setting banks feel like it. I cannot believe that one, just one, buyer has not requested their physical Gold. Surely, if just one demands their physical it will fall like a house of cards. Unless, as I'm sure there is, a bit of small print saying we can pay you in dollars !!! Something has got to bring these criminals to end their continuous fraud.

[deka1] 20/10/2015 16:05

Hi TF got carried away there , forgot to use the 1700 t/d from the lower levels.
amended my post lol