Medoil Share Discussion Threads

[duplicate book] 09/7/2007 21:26

Don't know bout that labatie, but I have noticed that when the share price drops, it doesn't drop as far as it had previously :o))

[labatie] 09/7/2007 17:49

Do we have an incipient pattern of rising lows?

[hugepants] 09/7/2007 15:37

Going in the right direction for a change.

[dodman2] 03/7/2007 10:54

With any luck she'll dive back down to 16 again for a few months which will give all of us a great opportunity to scoop up a whole load more for next to nothing. Always look on the bright side.

[labatie] 02/7/2007 16:41

Duplicate

Presumably there are still original holders @ 7.5p who can see a good profit selling @ 20. Thro June there was some good buying and not much stock has really come out since he interims. Eventually, with the limited free float, one hopes the balance of shareholders should tilt to those who have come on board in the last 6-9 months.

[duplicate book] 02/7/2007 13:04

Chart is starting to look a bit sickly again :o(( Seems there may be further opportunities to buy more sub 20p if this selling continues. Inspite of the recent upgrades and update by GEC&R on valuation, the price just won't stick!!!

[duplicate book] 22/6/2007 12:31

Another morning of steady buying which would normally have seen a rise in the share price. I feel there is another large T sell in the system holding us back at the moment.

[duplicate book] 21/6/2007 14:32

If all the T trades are sells, then somebody is offloading quite a few! Wonder if Credit Agricole SA are taking this opportunity to reduce their holding into this rise and increase in volume?

[labatie] 21/6/2007 14:21

Dipbob

You may be right. On the other hand it is not unheard of for the mkt to take another collective look at more or less the same potential and find more substance in it, the more so as licence negotiations and, one hopes, farm-in negotiations are presumably nearer completion than they were 8-12 wks ago. We also are beginning to have a wider shareholder base.

[cat100] 21/6/2007 12:05

Could be same old same old but I wouldn't bet against something coming our way this time. Still looking strong. We all know what happens when the shares run short on MDL which could be quite soon.

[dipbob] 21/6/2007 11:58

Just an observation...

MDL havent managed to do so in 2+ years so far though on the Tunisian play & we knew they had a prospect with 1.2bn in it back then.....

IMHO:- Yesterday's news is really nothing new (slight mark up on the prospective size) & feel sure we will see retracement here as a result when nothing happens over the following weeks / months. Same old, same old...potentially a decent play but no further forward....dyor

[investorjon] 21/6/2007 11:56

Placing would lower the price, as often price drops around 20-25% preceding placing, just to give extra cake to the caketakers! Hopefully a JV, as that would be better news IMHO.

[duplicate book] 21/6/2007 11:37

Probably a placing :o))

[cat100] 21/6/2007 11:36

Something is up for sure.

[cat100] 21/6/2007 11:20

They shifted the T trades no problem price is still rising .

[investorjon] 21/6/2007 11:20

At last, the modestly priced MedOil share price starts to perform. As ever its patience that often counts. Held this for some time, in the AIM portfolio, and a JV will seet this one on a very good path.

Shares can be a bit like waiting for a bus. This week after waiting for a bus several shares are arriving at the same time and it does look at long last as though AIM oil and gas shares that fell from grace, are making a return as peak oil pundits paint a gloomy picture on world supply.

[deanmatlazin] 21/6/2007 11:15

told you so...still undervalued!. TRP has no seismic study in Uganda with market cap of £17m!! MedOil - 3D completed and waiting to drill (with farm-in partner of course!!)

[cat100] 21/6/2007 10:35

Well we are moving now.

[duplicate book] 21/6/2007 09:21

Theres the reason we haven't moved on todays buying. 100k T sell. Thing is. Is there more to shift???????

[dodman2] 21/6/2007 09:18

Thanks for making that clear Stoploss - agreed, £20m DES cash must make a bit of bit of difference to the price, but MDL still must be heading for £1.00 (eg Knowing's long post just before) hence 4x minimum over next 2 years seems conservative to me.

[knowing] 21/6/2007 08:17

21 June 2007 Contact: Monisha Varadan
[e-mail]
0207 562 3370


Buy MedOil* at 22.5p - Target Increased to 100p


Key Data

EPIC
MDL

Share price
22.25p

Spread
21.5p – 23p

Market cap.
12.03 million pounds

12 month range
14.75p – 23.75p

Market
AIM

Website
www.medoilplc.com

Sector
Oil and Gas

Contact
David Thomas
0207 921 0001


Medoil, the AIM listed Mediterranean focused oil explorer, yesterday released results for the six months to 31 March 2007. The accompanying statement announced the completion of the 3-D seismic survey at the company's principal Louza Permit in Tunisia , which has resulted in an increase in the estimate of the permit's aggregate oil-in-place estimates within the seismic survey area to 1,483 million barrels of oil (MMBO) from 1,297 MMBO. The financial results while not relevant to the wider investment case, revealed a loss of £233,079, up from £176,257, and a loss per share of 0.36. Cash balances at the end of the period were £902,927, down from £2,489,306 as a result of significant exploration work.

The successful 3D programme at the company's Louza Permit has prompted an increase in the estimated potential oil reserves in two (M'Aila East and M'Sela West #1) of the four identified prospects adjacent to the M'Sela-1 oil discovery. Medoil is currently seeking potential farm-in partners to participate in a drilling programme for 2008, subject to jack-up availability.

Elsewhere, the company's applications for three offshore Spanish permits have been accepted by the Ministry of Industry, Tourism and Commerce, whilst the company's application for two permits offshore Sicily, adjacent to the Vega Oil field, have been accepted by the Italian Government, subject to Medoil's environmental impact study. The company's environmental reports were submitted to the authorities in April 2007, meanwhile it has started gathering technical data on these permits.

In Albania in the Joni-5 licence, existing 2-D seismic data sets indicate good to excellent data quality. An initial overview of the data has confirmed a number of potentially exciting geological plays, which the company aims to pursue further. The seismic data survey follows the Petroleum Sharing agreement over the Joni-5 licence signed in 2006 and which is valid for seven years. Under the terms of the agreement Medoil is obligated to conduct a 400 square kilometre 3-D seismic survey within two years.

We continue to attribute no value to the Albanian, Sicilian or Spanish acreage as the licences/applications are in very early stage of exploration. The company's largest and most advanced prospect is the Louza permit in Tunisia . Our most recent valuation valued the M'Sela structures, consisting of the main, west #1 and #2 structures at 61p per Medoil share, based on a conservative risk weighting.

As a result of the increase in potential reserves announced today we believe that the M'Sela structure alone is worth 70p on a fully diluted basis. The other two structures, M' Aila East and Ourata are, we believe, worth up to 29p on a fully diluted basis. The new valuations are based on conservative drilling probabilities (a risk weighting of 97.5%) and a barrel of oil value of $3.50. Any further exploration progress could cause us to increase these estimates significantly. Equally, any progress on the Albanian, Spanish and Sicilian prospects would also invite a revised upwards valuation. Our new valuation for Medoil is 100p on a fully diluted basis. At 22.25p, our stance remains unchanged. Buy .

Medoil Plc Oil Explorer in the Mediterranean
















VALUATION MODEL TEMPLATE








Region

Estimated Gross
Medoil
Estimated Gross
Risk Probabilities
Estimated
Oil mmbbl



Potential

Potential


Risk-weighted
@$3.50



Recoverable

Recoverable


Recoverable




Reserves
interest
Reserves in place


Reserves




in place

net to Medoil


net to Medoil
Valuation

Tunisia

mmbbl
%
mmbbl
Pre-drill
Drilling
mmbbl
$m

Lousa Permit
Award








M'Sela
Award
532
95%
505.4
0.10
0.25
12.64
44.2225

M'Aila East
Award
273
95%
259.35
0.10
0.25
6.48
22.693125

M'Sela West #1
Award
387
95%
367.65
0.10
0.25
9.19
32.169375

Ourata
Award
171
95%
162.45
0.10
0.25
4.06
14.214375

M'Sela West #2
Award
120
95%
114
0.10
0.25
2.85
9.975

Total

1483








35.22125
123.27438








£m
63.22






Fully Diluted
no of shares (m)
64.056






Valuation per share
(pence)
98.69


(Medoil Plc estimates)

Year to 30 September
Sales
(Million of pounds)
Pre-tax Profits
(Million of pounds)
Earnings per share (pence)

2005A
0.00
(0.23)
(0.48)

2006A
0.00
(0.51)
(0.89)

2007E
0.00
(0.48)
(0.75)

[stoploss2] 20/6/2007 18:53

deanmatlazin, DES have more than £22m of cash on their balance sheet, MDL have just £3m, so we are not comparing like with like here. I'm not saying it hasn't got mileage, i'm just saying there's £19m more cash in DES that needs to be factored into your thinking.

Hence, dodman2, expectations of a multibag 5x are a little optimistic.

I do agree however, that a farm out, a rig contract, and a firm timetable for a well will see a significant add and rerating of MDL.

SL2

[dodman2] 20/6/2007 17:18

Interesting comparison deanmatlazin - if Desire is valued at £50m and MDL today at £8m (22.5p) - then MDL certainly would seem to have some upside. Should multibag 5x no problem on a good drill and farm out either later this year or next. Well worth the wait imo.

[deanmatlazin] 20/6/2007 10:37

I would like to remind that 3D seismic study showed 1.5 billion barrels of oil in place. Arden Partner said share price of 82p was a true value for Medoil, but since the upgrade, this could be worth more

[blueliner] 20/6/2007 10:10

Agree, the gist of this has been staring investors in the face for some time,
without reaction, this is why I bought in after OB presentation.