Mears Share Discussion Threads

[qs99] 12/1/2024 08:23

Expecting this now to start to trend much higher, wonder if there are any new broker notes out yet?

DYOR

[qs99] 11/1/2024 08:55

Good morning and thanks useful. EBITDA should be a good guidance to cash gen IMO/DYOR so am happy using both metrics....GLA

[jamesgreenbury] 11/1/2024 08:52

I'd say average cash of 75m is a more useful number (excellent that the company publishes this) and this may be lower after the buybacks/divis at the end of the year. I don't use EBITDA (per Charlie Munger) and look at their EBIT measure (before amortisation of acquired goodwill) of 43. So EV say 275 and EV/EBIT OF 6.4x

[qs99] 11/1/2024 08:21

So c.£343m market cap per ADVFN
Net Cash £105m AFTER last year's spend on share bb and divis of nearly £50m!
EV c.£240m say
£1bn revenues
FY 22 EBITDA post IFRS 16 adj was c.£95m

So EV/EBITDA ratio is just ludicrous IMO with this sort of cash generation no?

DYOR/Views?

[qs99] 11/1/2024 08:12

Indeed....may buy some more....

[jamesgreenbury] 11/1/2024 08:07

Extraordinary cash performance given £49m spent on dividends and share buybacks in 2023.

[qs99] 02/1/2024 08:25

really quiet board

have bought a load today and will continue to invest as IMO this just looks the wrong price & nice yield as well to help out....

DYOR

[buffettjnr] 12/9/2023 21:25

What does this have to do with Mears?

[johndoe23] 03/8/2023 08:55

Looks decent! Any forecasts anyone could share going forward?

[someuwin] 03/8/2023 07:42

Looks good to me.

David Miles, Chief Executive Officer of the Group, commented:

"We are delighted to deliver strong results for the first half year, with record levels of revenues, profits, and daily net cash. This strong momentum is expected to continue through the second half, and we have today further increased our FY23 guidance. The excellent financial performance is testimony to the strategic actions taken in recent years, our investment in resilient operating platforms, and a committed and engaged workforce with a shared desire to deliver the highest level of customer service in the affordable housing sector."

[someuwin] 25/7/2023 15:01

So Miton have been selling causing the pullback. But looks like it wants to carry on rising now.

[johndoe23] 17/7/2023 09:12

2024, not 2025

[johndoe23] 17/7/2023 09:11

Come across this recently. Can anyone explain what is driving the rise in profits recently? And why revenues and profits are forecast to fall in 2025? Any feedback most welcome!

[buffettjnr] 11/1/2023 16:39

I bought 29k shares today. I think that the seller is done

[spooky] 11/1/2023 15:53

I have a fairly chunky position here. There has been a sizable seller for a long time. Either he knows something or he doesn't. I remain convinced that the market has not fully appreciated the changes that have taken place in the company over the last two or three years.

[sphere25] 11/1/2023 15:38

Price 204p

It might be too early a call this, but there is some out of the ordinary activity on the book at MER, with what looks to be at least one large buyer placing blocks on the bid in icebergs of 8911.

A few blocks of 8911 have already been gobbled up at that 201p mark and the order is still sat there wanting more. There is also another 8911 order at 200p. It remains to be seen how big these buy orders are. The book is fluent here and orders can get removed as quickly as they are placed, but it is something worth keeping an eye on when someone starts stepping in with blocks like this, so just keeping a watchful eye to see if there is any follow through.

All imo
DYOR

[sphere25] 14/12/2022 09:57

Two days of decent exchanges here. Over 600k exchanged on Monday and yesterday we saw those stale bulls selling at around that 189p with blocks of 362k, 150k and 100k being mopped up for total exchanges of about 860k.

It isn't the blow out volume that can cause a clear out of sellers in one go, but enough to keep half an eye on MER. They are coming in again this morning with a little stream of buys as I type. The order book looks better bid on the book with decent demand from 190p-194p but a 71k sell order sat on the offer at 195.5p so still sellers in size about too.

Unsure if this has been tipped with this little stream of buying, but clearly there are some buyers about this week.

How about some big follow through buying to cause concern for a bullish move higher in boring old MER.

All imo
DYOR

[spooky] 14/12/2022 09:52

Volume starting to build over the last two or three days.

[buffettjnr] 08/12/2022 12:07

The whole market is too cheap. This one hardly stands out. 8PE. A bit mehh

[spooky] 08/12/2022 11:41

There has been a seller here for a while, not sure where he went when they had the recent flash up to 210. I don't think the market has fully appreciated the changes at the company over the last couple of years, particularly the improvement in the balance sheet. Not a sector/business activity that people are falling over themselves to invest in which doesn't help. I also suspect that potential investors are being influenced by earnings forecasts for next year but i expect those to be upgraded as we go though the year. Too cheap IMO.

[sphere25] 08/12/2022 10:02

The upgrades keep coming and they are confident on next year too. Alot of doom and gloom already in the price here.

In this challenging environment, not only continued performance, but continued outperformance. Defensive, value, shift from growth to value of late, decent yield, not burdened with debt. They were getting so much work they had to turn it down. There could have been even more outperformance as the last report showed labour issues stifling further growth.

After all that, it still doesn't go anywhere - just farts about in a range. Maybe the economic downturn will end up being severe.

OBR forecasts for growth:

2023: -1.4%
2024: +1.3%
2025: +2.6%

Unemployment to peak at 4.9%. Perhaps all that is miles off the mark with much stickier inflation and higher rates, or higher for alot longer than expected and maybe that also feeds into the likes of MER. If those figures are wrong but not miles out, then there is hope next year for many companies. It is just difficult to call the exact bottom.

The wider markets aren't pricing in a severe downturn, that's for sure. It makes you wonder why MER doesn't attract at least a multiple of ten. Clearly not going to get a punchy multiple here, but just looking at some basic numbers:

-->Profit to come in at £33.5m
-->Average daily net cash £40m
-->Versus market cap of £215m

It is almost being priced to go bust. Clearly must be missing alot for it not be at least somewhere in that 250p-300p range on a small multiple expansion.

I find it hard to not trade these sorts of charts, but I am in, and staying in. Maybe it won't bore your brains out someday and pop sharply higher. Perhaps some stale bulls to clear first.

Until then...

Yawn.

All imo
DYOR

[buffettjnr] 13/11/2022 17:21

It is incredibly good value. Can see it hitting 300p in no time. Perhaps something positive from North Lanarkshire?

[sphere25] 11/11/2022 16:15

192p to 209p, on decent volume of 713k.

Late afternoon spike on a Friday?

That's odd.

Completely missed the move, too sharp and not chasing it, but just trying to see if there is any news.

Too much information out there and I cba with social media. Maybe just an anomalous spike following the bullish market or something more?

Trading update due shortly. No idea if something has leaked but you usually get continued buying if it is anything more than just a one off type spike.

All imo
DYOR

[km18] 03/5/2022 12:03

Mears Group encompasses divisions providing housing services, where repairs are delivered, and capital works are developed to ensure building safety while reinforcing housing maintenance. Given the ample housing services offered, the firm was able to enhance its diversified funding structure, enabling the firm to derive a robust revenue recovery of 9%, which in turn led to a solid adjusted profit before tax of £25.6m. Considering that the group incurred a loss of £3.4m the previous year, the firm managed to optimise operating activities effectively, supported by the attractive profit rally and followed by a surge of 117% in net cash performance. This plausible market news was positively incorporated into the firm’s P/FCF of 4.6x, which is trading in 4th place within the Professional & Commercial services industry, thus ahead of most competitors. Consequently, it implied that, a wide variety of stakeholders, agencies and property viewers are interested in the firm’s housing services. As a result, EPS growth reached 37.5% and EV/EBITDA grew to 4.66x, capturing organic growth and intrinsic value, hence yielding substantial returns for investors. This evidence is supported by the Dividend yield of 4.55% since the firm has adopted a conservative dividend policy to reward shareholders for their investments. Despite the firm’s emerging financial position, the security is undervalued, illustrated by the P/E of 10.1x, lower than the Industrials P/E ratio of 22.7x, thereby it is expected to surge in value.