Mdm Engin. Share Discussion Threads

[hsbcpremier] 05/6/2008 08:56

im looking to snaffle up a few more when this ticks up next

[rcktmn] 04/6/2008 09:05

I've got on board for a few this morning ...should be an interesting ride !

[hsbcpremier] 03/6/2008 22:34

Managed to get the Edison note now which expects profits of $79,900 MILLION, eps of 96p ish, if all contracts kick in.

Some good 10k buys in there today. Guess news on Arcelor Mittal / Kalagadi cant be too far away. In a table therein Edison says timing on kalagadi is "July" but ireckon before.


Where this one goes and how quick, lets see. Blimey aint been excited like this for a while...

[shanksaj] 03/6/2008 11:56

CR

"Probably worth risking a bit"... Perhaps I should have said before, that's all I've done. Regards

[czar] 03/6/2008 07:28

Thanks hsbcpremier, when more deals are announced the shares will rise in step changes, would not be surprised to see £5 this year.

[hsbcpremier] 02/6/2008 23:56

MDM to add two more construction projects
by end of year

[cockneyrebel] 02/6/2008 22:08

Perhaps, but many a slip from cup to lip - things like power supply in South Africa and the fact that all they have done is feasability studies so far. And if £6 was such a banker why float at 150p? And why keen sellers to fill the buying today?

They may well have a lot more to go - but if you're that clever hsbcpremier why has it taken a tip sheet to get you interested? If you're as smart as you like to portray yourself here and there you'd have been buying when I was.

I'll have the chance to buy again if they do make a decent announcement and if it's going to £6 there'll still be plenty there for me. If they disappoint or delay it will be down as fast as up or faster, just remember that and as yet they are unproven.

Probably worth risking a bit - but remember the downside too if you're in this in size - the mm's only have to deal in 2K.

CR

[hsbcpremier] 02/6/2008 21:26

ok well remind you at 500p, then 600p :)
Why do i say that? because when they confirm the Arcelor Mittal deal, eps minimum is 65p, forget the other deals, gonnarocket

[cockneyrebel] 02/6/2008 21:23

SHANKAJ

"CR, You must have sold 'em to me. You sold too early."

Just remember the company was only formed less than a year ago, they haven't made 1p earnings yet so claiming they are going to do massive earnings next year is very much jam tomorrow. It's easy for the pre-float investors to make big claims for next year (when they have made jack so far) and to sell this year before they disappoint - which just might be why the shares were not rising after about 9am despite all the buying - who was selling?. The market makers deal in 2K too - and there's just 2 of them - so if they do miss forecasts or disappoint in any way don't expect to escape with more than half a testicle will you.

I'm happy with my gains thanks - you never sell too early if you take a profit, especially 35% in a couple of weeks in this market.

Oh, and Edison's forecasts are paid for by the company so you have to always treat them with some scepicism.

Good luck, I hope you make the return I made or more.

CR

[hsbcpremier] 02/6/2008 21:12

if they have the Mittal contract (Edison note says they have right of first refusal) then eps forecast is 65p, if the others come in then it is 96p or more.

At bottom end, PE is 4 and at top end PE is 2.3, either way looks cheap to even a one eyed algerian like me.

PE of 10 and your looking at £5 to £10 as previous poster trainspotter suggested, imho

[czar] 02/6/2008 20:36

forecasts for current year are for $21.8m profits, 29.1p eps, but Edison see them coming in at $72m based on projects in the pipeline. That puts eps at over 100p so 50p may not be too high. There should be news out end of this month.

[stegrego] 02/6/2008 19:00

I think its a bit fanciful to assume that they will win all of the contracts they are doing as BFS etc, so earnings in the 50p+ range are just a pipedream IMO.

[pre] 02/6/2008 15:56

cheers hsbcpremier...a very interesting read:-)

[hsbcpremier] 02/6/2008 15:49

World's biggest steel producer accelerates trend of backward integration into mining
Text Size
By: Martin Creamer
Published on 30th November 2007
Luxembourg, November 19 – ArcelorMittal, the world's largest steel company, signs a joint venture manganese partnership with South Africa's Kalagadi Manganese.

Luxembourg, November 21 – ArcelorMittal, the world's largest steel company, signs a joint venture coking-coal partnership with Mozambique's Black Gold Mining.

In between, the Brussels-based International Iron and Steel Institute screams blue murder over BHP Billiton attempting to create what it condemns as a seaborne iron-ore monopoly in aspiring to transact with Rio Tinto.

No doubt about it, backward integration into mining is hotting up, motivated by rising raw material prices.

Says Kalagadi Manganese technical director David Wellbeloved: "Our deal spearheads the backward-integration trend."

He estimates that the Kalagadi initiative is the first integrated manganese project since the late 1970s.

Kalagadi chairperson Daphne Mashile-Nkosi is smiling from ear to ear.


The steel giant says that Kalagadi will be a competitive source of manganese for its plants.

The mine and sinter plant will produce 2,4-million tons of sinter a year at Hotazel and the smelter 320 000 t/y of ferromanganese alloy at the Coega industrial develop-ment zone.

Drilling to date has confirmed the presence of a high-grade manganese ore resource sufficient to support a 20-year life-of-mine.

Mashile-Nkosi reiterates that manganese scavenges impurities such as oxygen and sulphur in the steelmaking process and adds toughness, hardness and abrasion resistance to steel in the form of an alloying component.

Ninety per cent of manganese is consumed in manganese ferroalloys as well as manganese metal in the production of iron and steel.

Manganese metal is also used to produce aluminium alloys.

Nonmetallurgical applications include the use of manganese chemicals in fertilisers, bricks, paint and water purification. Some of the main minerals containing manganese are pyrolusite, psilomelane and rhodochrosite.

The project overlies a manganese basin that is endowed with 80% of the world's known high-grade manganese, estimated at 12-billion tons.
Kalahari Resources, a majority black women-controlled company, owns 80% of Kalagadi Manganese and South Africa's State-owned Industrial Development Corpora-tion (IDC) 20%.

ArcelorMittal paid $312-million for 50% of the asset, while IDC paid R60-million for 20% of the equity.

Macquarie First South Corporate Finance and Edward Nathan Sonnenbergs advised Kalagadi Manganese.

ArcelorMittal beat off 18 rival bidders, including the shortlisted Minmetals, of China, and Eramet Comilog, one of the world's largest manganese companies, after arriving at a project value of $630-million and meeting Kalagadi's financial, project-suitability and business-compatibility criteria.

It also agreed to buy 50% of the ferromanganese produced at market price, and signed a special business-assistance agreement that will facilitate the growth of Kalagadi Manganese.

Luxembourg-listed Arcelor- Mittal has a market capitalisation of R728-billion and owns 52% of steelmaker ArcelorMittal South Africa, the former State-owned Iscor.

ArcelorMittal will, in addition to funding half of the project, pay Kalagadi shareholders $222,5-million for their mining right, by means of a cash contribution of $312-million so that the empowered South African company can contribute to the project and also have working capital.

The transaction takes place at a time of ferromanganese prices hitting their high points beyond the $1 600/t level

South Africa's Shaft Sinkers has been contracted to begin sinking the shaft on March 1, 2008, and the first manganese in the Hotazel formation is expected to be traversed by mid-2008.

Eskom has undertaken to supply 25 MW of electricity to the mine and sinter plant and 65 MW will be required from the Nelson Mandela Municipality to power the ferromanganese smelter.

[pre] 02/6/2008 15:49

reminds me of NPBO..look where that is now....

[pre] 02/6/2008 15:47

how long can the mm's hold this back...spring coiled effect building up imo....

[hsbcpremier] 02/6/2008 15:44

pre - 2 Jun'08 - 15:11 - 58 of 60


czar....taken from trainspotters post from earlier...does look very good indeed imo, dyor etc:

TRAINSPOTTER - 20 May'08 - 21:18 - 35 of 51


should MDM convert potential projects Kariba, Ezulwini, Kalagadi, Algeria Gold and Lily Mine into actual projects then the forecast EPS for FY 09 is around 100p. At current prices that's a forecast per of, well work it out for yourselves! Zero leverage as well.

Average sector per stands around 15-20. With MDM forecast to grow earnings by triple digit %'s into 09 and 2010 the scope for further price appreciation is excellent. ON a per of 10 for 2009 should be between 500-1000p assuming £10 for best case scenario of all above project secured.

TS


If they announce the Arcelor Mittal manga project now, this will go to 300p+ imho

[pre] 02/6/2008 15:34

nice 10,000 BUY just reported...a few decent buys coming through bodes well imo:-)

[nickcduk] 02/6/2008 15:29

Im afraid life isnt that simple for mining contractors. They get caught up in all sorts of disputes, cost overruns and litigation. Have a look at BATE and its roller coaster ride for an example of how it can go wrong and how low valuation can go once problems arise.

[pre] 02/6/2008 15:11

czar....taken from trainspotters post from earlier...does look very good indeed imo, dyor etc:

TRAINSPOTTER - 20 May'08 - 21:18 - 35 of 51


should MDM convert potential projects Kariba, Ezulwini, Kalagadi, Algeria Gold and Lily Mine into actual projects then the forecast EPS for FY 09 is around 100p. At current prices that's a forecast per of, well work it out for yourselves! Zero leverage as well.

Average sector per stands around 15-20. With MDM forecast to grow earnings by triple digit %'s into 09 and 2010 the scope for further price appreciation is excellent. ON a per of 10 for 2009 should be between 500-1000p assuming £10 for best case scenario of all above project secured.

TS

[czar] 02/6/2008 14:26

The article says 50% of profits will be paid as divi so if pre is right that will give 50p divi or 22%.

[hsbcpremier] 02/6/2008 12:59

nice 10k buy at 230p, before that a smaller buy at 231p, a penny premium

[hsbcpremier] 02/6/2008 11:56

a nice quiet board

[whiterussians] 02/6/2008 10:27

Kind of has a feel of wanting to break towards pound six this one imho