Mccoll's Retail Share Discussion Threads

[willork] 12/12/2018 08:31

Yes, we'll all be poorer - and the poor shop at mcls. So, more mcls business.

[willork] 12/12/2018 08:31

Yes, we'll all be poorer - and the poor shop at mcls

[lord gnome] 12/12/2018 08:13

Nah, Jezza’s a Co-op man. 😀

[john09] 11/12/2018 16:30

Corbyn probably shops at McColls 🤣

[loganair] 11/12/2018 16:28

With the current political situation in the UK I can see McColl's falling further to 50p.

If Corbyn gets in maybe even as low as 30p.

[wunderbar] 11/12/2018 16:23

Loganair, you're not the only one who jumped in too early, I did same c.84p - I'm kicking myself as I was too impulsive, history dictates majority of stocks which issue profit warnings normally fall further [as demonstrated here] - a quick study of stocks I've followed in past which issued profit warnings revealed majority of them ended up falling a further 10-20% before hitting the bottom - but in the case of MCLS it's already fallen a staggering 25% since the warning and we still don't know if we've reached rock bottom! You gotta say the reaction has been brutal.

Bearing in mind on the day of profit warning [and it wasn't what I call a horrific warning] price dropped 31% so now we're looking at a combined fall of 48% in just a matter of days - all of which leaves the business valued at just £72m with FY profit expected to be c.£35m [noting £100m debt]. Surely a crazy valuation [cue takeover rumours] but even though share price is only 62p I won't be loading up anymore as I've reached my limit on what I always considered to be a punt stock, looks like my original purchases c.130p have done me in for now, it'll probably be a hard slog back to them heady heights but if we can get there within 2-3 years then great - but if it ends in tears then sobeit. You win some, you lose some.

[loganair] 11/12/2018 12:16

I understand that for EBITDA FY19, £38m has been penciled in.

[supercity] 11/12/2018 11:38

Very surprised how low this has gone when the trading update wasn't even that bad.Market cap is currently 70m and the update said this...In addition, a stronger performance in tobacco, relative to other categories, has resulted in a lower conversion of sales to profit than anticipated. As a result, we now expect adjusted EBITDA for FY18 to be around GBP35m.We are pleased, however, to confirm that we have significantly reduced net debt, to a level lower than previously expected. We have also entered into revised banking arrangements. Whilst our existing financing is in place until mid-2021, a number of changes have been made to the terms to give us additional flexibility to execute our strategy.

[loganair] 07/12/2018 11:26

pj - In hindsight I was one of those who bought too early, the share price could have gone up the day after. however in the medium and long term I am very confident that I'll double the amount I invested with a good, say with a 25% reducation in the dividend, a 9% dividend yield on my investment.

[pj fozzie] 07/12/2018 11:12

john09 wrote: "Some buyers on here bought on Monday. I said too early.!"

Yep - unfortunately you were right. Yesterday was total carnage - £36K drop in value on my portfolio - my biggest one day drop ever.

I sooo need a santa rally.

Cheers,
PJ

[aleman] 06/12/2018 14:44

Bought some more. The price is crazy.

[loganair] 06/12/2018 09:36

Because the free cash tap is being turned off, any company with any negative news is being hit really hard, unlike a couple of years ago when negative news would be just shrugged off due to all the cash sloshing around.

[loganair] 06/12/2018 09:32

It seems all the supermarket shares are falling, just due to sentiment McColl's are falling twice as much.

[danny baker] 06/12/2018 09:05

There's the announcement that Gervaise at Miton has sharply reduced his shareholding and presumably is intending to sell the rest. It does explain the steep fall without any bounce so far.

[loganair] 05/12/2018 20:09

Even with a predicted 25% cut in the dividend, McColl's would still yield in excess of 10%.

[john09] 05/12/2018 19:59

Some buyers on here bought on Monday. I said too early.

[loganair] 05/12/2018 19:55

I think it is very difficult to predict the price of any share at the moment.

[john09] 05/12/2018 19:00

I see the low was 70p. That’s 3 days of trading statement related falls. If you get the long term chart u may be able to predict the bottom. Wider market squall also will have an impact

[aleman] 05/12/2018 18:54

I would not touch LWB at the moment. Chalk and cheese.

[danny baker] 05/12/2018 12:07

Another share on a similar double figure yield is Low and Bonar. (LWB) Both companies have weak balance sheets, high levels of intangibles and borrowings that will have to be repaid or replaced by equity. Market sentiment is against this type of share at the moment despite resilient but declining profitability. The final dividends will depend on how trading looks next year and what their lenders are saying about the chances of the borrowing facilities being renewed.

[loganair] 05/12/2018 10:29

On a current 13% dividend yield, with a 25% cut in the dividend will still leave McColl's yielding nearly 10% for anyone whose bought at the current share price.

[loganair] 05/12/2018 10:26

As an Investor my outlook is usually 5 to 10 years.

Poor sentiment and fear is usually a good time for a medium to long term buy.

The analyst say that McColl's is a well managed company and the two sets backs are temporary and beyond their control.

As long as the management keep reducing debt and closing non-performing and loss making stores McColl's will be OK in the medium to long run.

In my own view, there are as many as couple of hundred more stores that McColl's need to close while picking up a few good stores here and there along the way to their estate.

[aleman] 05/12/2018 10:17

The market keeps selling off small caps. If the chart is of any value it looks like it's going to drop another 5-6% in the short term. Although the MCLS price looks bonkers, I don't see it climbing while everthing else is selling off. Small investors are selling on sentiment rather than fundamentals now.


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[loganair] 05/12/2018 09:30

As I thought the share price drop was over done, I invested in a few more.

Looking in today, the share price is looking very ugly, very ugly indeed therefore I think it better to not look for a little while. In the medium and long term I am confident that my increased investment in McColl's will pay off handsomely.

[alphorn] 04/12/2018 13:04

Aleman - I always appreciate your analyses so have this on my watch list.