Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Mcb Fin Grp. LSE:MCRB London Ordinary Share GB00B1LD2G45 ORD 10P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  +0.00p +0.00% 122.50p 0 06:30:09
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
0.00p 0.00p - - -
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Nonequity Investment Instruments 27.4 -1.5 -3.3 - 21.76

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09/2/201517:47Mobile Credit with Charts & News149

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xenawarriorprincess: MCRB's finance costs for the first 9 months of the year were €5.196M. for a full year this equates to €6.928M or £5.542M. As net borrowings are €42.781M this is equivalent to a net borrowing cost of 16.19%, close to the 18% they pay on the bonds. IPF have borrowed on their bonds at 5.75%. If MCRB could borrow at the same rates then they could save roughly €4.469M per year in interest charges or £3.57M. If all this money simply fell to the bottom line then PBT would increase from €2.367M to €6.836M or £5.468M. Net income attributable to shareholders for the 9 months was €1.545M or 8.7c per share. I guess what I'm trying to say is that if they could refinance the bonds at around 6% then this would be a ridiculously profitable company. They would pay more tax but income attributable to shareholders would increase to something like €5M or £4M, putting them on a p/e of 3. MCRB, of course, are considering a more complicated arrangement for financing the bonds, involving debt, new investors and equity from existing shareholders. Obviously as yet no agreement has been reached between the big players. At 481p IPF is on a p/e of 13.5. Brokers are generally favourable with price targets between 530p to 640p, although PG and Liberum are negative. MCRB, if it were able to borrow at the same rates as IPF were to be valued on the same basis as IPF then the share price would be 308p, or thereabouts. Of course IPF is sitting on £80m cash, equivalent to 8% of the share price, and is a much bigger company, valued at £1Bn. But MCRB has the technology, making its operations super efficient, and cutting out some of the agencies and door to door collectors would in time make IPF more profitable, and enable them to graduate to a more "sophisticated" type operation. I'm not sure IPF would go as high as 300p, although it could be worth more to IPF as IPF not only get their hands on proven technology, but also new markets, an operation with much lower delinquencies and see off a potentially much more efficient operator. IPF would want to get in as cheap as possible, I'd be disappointed if it was anything less than 150p (notwithstanding the shares are only 80p now and 53p when the potential bid was announced). But they have to balance the possibility of MCRB having difficulty refinancing, thereby getting the company cheaply, with the problems it could cause if MCRB did refinance and they then have a super profitable, well financed, high tech competitor in their main markets, and being a number of years away from rolling out an efficient and sophisticated internet based system themselves. Only MCRB management and possibly major shareholders know how the debt negotiations are going. No doubt IPF are trying to find out prior to pitching their formal offer, if indeed it comes, and are probably in direct negotiations with major shareholders in any event. Dermot Desmond a major (28%) holder can drive a mean bargain - he bought City of London Airport for £23M around 1995 and sold it 10 years later for a rumoured £750M! So I think we are probably in safe hands so far as any negotiations are concerned. The potential bid, and actual bid itself, if it comes, may in itself jazz things up quite a bit, so if debt negotiations had stalled the parties may now suddenly see matters in a different light. Looking forward to the next couple of weeks.
xenawarriorprincess: Certainly overlooked - but in recent years MCRB has acted almost as if it was a private company - with RNS's few and far between, and has not courted publicity. Indeed in 2014, until the latest set of announcements there had only been 7 RNS's all year - all dealing with such "dry" matters as accounts, the AGM and annual report. I know that RNS's cost money, and that some companies seem to issue them for almost no reason (and they're not necessarily the best companies), but MCRB do seem almost to avoid publicity. For example they launched a mobile app in Finland in June 2014, and Creditline was launched in Latvia in October 2014. Creditline has proved to be a money spinner in Finland and has outperformed expectations, but you wouldn't know it had launched in Latvia unless you trawled through the latest quarterly update. And to find out about the mobile app you would have to translate the Finnish website. Mobile apps seem to be a bit of a buzzword at the moment - but MCRB seem to want to keep their progress in this area fairly quiet. The latest investor presentation detailed exciting expansion plans - for mobile apps, the extension of Creditline and Sving into new markets, plans for deposits etc. Those plans may have been somewhat delayed due to funding issues, but there has been no update to the presentation in over a year. So they've been acting a bit shy. Which hasn't done much for the share price. Anyway - enough of that. It would certainly make sense from an IPF point of view for IPF to take them over, I guess it is all a question of what Smec and Dermot are prepared to accept, and whether they can all agree a deal. I've always had the impression that there is some rivalry and disagreement between Smec and Dermot, and that neither of them are too happy with the Board, but that maybe neither can agree on replacements for the Board either - so they've ended up continuing with the same management team. So maybe now IPF have come in, even if they don't end up taking MCRB over, the end result could be that things will get stirred up quite a bit, and that sleepy MCRB will never be quite the same again. In fact if IPF do make an offer I wouldn't be at all surprised to see at least one further offeror entering as well, once it becomes known that MCRB is in play. Certainly there must be sizable local financial institutions would want to get access to the products and technology which MCRB have developed over the last few years. So I await the next few weeks with interest - as you say its almost Xmas!
xenawarriorprincess: Yes, I certainly agree that MCRB has, overall been a disappointment. And I also agree that I would expect it to go for somewhere north of 100p. The actual potential figure, I not sure about. I think to IPF MCRB is worth well north of 100p, possibly up to 300p with the profit potential, new markets, access to working proven technology, and Sving. IPF appear to do most of its business through agencies and door to door, so the cost saving to be achieved by moving some business to an internet type operation would be very considerable indeed. However MCRB are under pressure finance wise, and need to repay the bonds by early March, or refinance in some way. So what they actually get is a different matter. Maybe I should be happy with 150p or thereabouts. Obviously at the IPO Smec sold a large part of their holding at 130pish (can't remember the exact figure), and Dermot bought about half of his holding at 85p or thereabouts. So 85p I'd certainly say would be a floor, and maybe even 130p. The "going concern" bit of the last set of accounts was actually qualified, with the accountants saying, if they couldn't refinance, they would be bust, so there is certainly some pressure on MCRB to agree a deal, and maybe for less than they think it might otherwise be worth. Maybe I am being a bit sentimental, as I've been in MCRB something like 3+ years, and have built up (for me) a fairly substantial holding. A sale would give me an exit, at quite likely a decent price, whereas selling my holding in the market, given the lack of trading in the shares would probably be difficult, unless I took a big hit pricewise, or the volume of trades picked up markedly. The business now appears very well run, but over the years the share price has been hit by the 2008 crash, the attempt to delist in 2010 (which the major shareholder blocked - something of a breakdown in communication there), and the expensive and fairly disastrous foray into Australia in 2012, which still hits the profits today, and what appear to be the overpriced bonds, which suck up much of the spare cash generated by the well run day to day business. Anyway with Smec holding 32% and Dermot 28%, as you say, it is really up to them. And something like 90% of the shares are held by the other 3%+ holders. So the remaining shareholders are small beer, but I await further developments with interest. Xena All IMHO, DYOR. PS. Pleased to be no longer alone over here.
xenawarriorprincess: Annual Report 2013 issued earlier this week (30-4-14). Nothing really new in there albeit the auditors were keen on emphasising that MCRB would need to refinance those bonds by March 2015 in order to continue to be a going concern. Company still expect to be profitable in H1, directors got around €150K less last year due to reduced bonuses, and generally remained upbeat about prospects going forwards, and that future funding would be a combination of debt, bonds and equity. Impaired loans were down significantly - by 11%, and thus credit quality up. Directors seem to be on the ball regarding the financing, although in order to get that at reasonable rates they no doubt need to prove that they can sustain profitability going forwards. First quarter figures are usually released in the first week or two of May, so hopefully they will continue to be good. The borrowing costs at present do appear to be high, given general market circumstances, so refinancing this at favourable rates could have a big impact on future profits, and allow expansion into new markets. No explanation for the large dip in share price during January/February, or its subsequent recovery in March to almost pre dip levels - were things going on that were not made public, or simple market shenanigans? Maybe we will never know. A favourable refinancing deal could lead to a rerating of the share price. Continuing to pick up a few as and when.
xenawarriorprincess: First quarter figures should be out the week after next. In the Finals MCRB indicated they expected the first half to be profitable, so hopefully, as expenditure on the new platforms should have moderated, we should see some progress from the Q4 2013 profit of €0.3M. Sving looks like it is doing fairly well, facebook likes are now 15,116, 19 retailers on board, with another about to come, and recently has started to operate more like a bank providing not just purchase finance, but allowing direct loan payments into customers bank accounts, as trailed in the Q3 presentation. But alexa indicates that its rating position has fallen to something like 5,500. A revamped Australian website has also been launched. In the Q3 presentation management also indicated that finances were being managed prudently so as to ensure covenant compliance. Presumably they were fairly close, at that time, to covenant limits. Things seemed to improve significantly in Q4. In the Q4 report they also said - "As the Company continues to grow, management expect to realise significant operating leverage from the new platform, product and geographical investments. Management also intends to seek opportunities to diversify the Group's sources of funding, thereby reducing the Group's cost of debt. Discussions on the refinancing of the Company's senior and subordinated debt will be undertaken well in advance of their maturity in March 2015, with a view to recapitalising the Company's balance sheet to reduce financial leverage and to improve the Company's effective cost of funding." News on this could have a major impact of financials going forwards, as the costs of borrowing are one of the biggest costs for the company. Last week there was also a 75K sale of shares, which was the biggest for a while. Towards the end of last year any selling battered the share price, this latest sale didn't even cause a blip. Maybe those in the know, are expecting the company to do better over the next few months, hence the price stability. So far this year we've only had one RNS, management has been very tight lipped, but hopefully we will shortly get a bit more information about just how the company is doing. I'm sure management have been working hard, and the turnaround will have been continuing to gather momentum. Fingers crossed! Xena
snadgey: Share price starting to turn of these results...
xenawarriorprincess: As I'm "on" MCRB at the moment I just thought I'd highlight what appears to be an anomoly - 3%+ shareholdings @ 31-12-10 MC Global Limited 7,980,187 45.88% IIU Nominees Limited 1,856,521 10.67% Orient Equity Partners 1,478,764 8.50% Henry Nilert * 1,211,952 6.97% Europanel AB 740,000 4.25% P. Lorange 656,521 3.77% Hansa Eastern European 533,333 3.07% Total 83.11% @ 31-12-11 MC Global Limited 7,659,039 45.88% IIU Nominees Limited 1,856,521 11.12% Orient Equity Partners 1,521,764 9.12% Henry Nilert * 987,222 5.91% Europanel AB 740,000 4.43% P. Lorange 656,521 3.93% P. Duleyrie 544,211 3.26% Hansa Eastern European 533,333 3.19% Total 86.84% @ 31-12-12 MC Global Limited 7,659,039 43.37% IIU Nominees Limited 2,581,281 14.62% Orient Equity Partners 2,129,504 12.06% Henry Nilert * 1,228,222 6.95% P. Lorange 844,021 4.78% P. Duleyrie 803,961 4.55% Europanel AB 740,000 4.19% Conils Ltd 681,577 3.86% Hansa Eastern European 533,333 3.02% Total 97.40% @ 8-2-13 Mobile Credit Finland Oy 3,982,096 22.55% IIU Nominees Limited 2,581,281 14.62% Orient Equity Partners 2,129,504 12.06% Boxtel Oy 1,805,974 10.23% Henry Nilert 1,228,222 6.95% P. Lorange 844.021 4.78% P. Duleyrie 803.961 4.55% Europanel AB 740.000 4.19% Conils Ltd 681.577 3.86% Hansa Eastern European 533.333 3.02% Total 86.81% (hopefully the tables will come out right or it will all look a bit of a mess) All these are taken from the Annual Reports. The % figures change due to issue of options, cancellations etc. But the 2012 figures cannot be right. The 2013 MCF and Boxtel holdings come to 5,788,070. MC Global had 7,659,039, so thats 1,870,969 missing. MC Global retained (@ 8/2/13) 441,389, (2.5%) and Conlis took on 1/8/12 681,577 (we were never told where these came from), but that still leaves 748,003 shares adrift somewhere. The 2011 report does refer to 700,000 shares being bought back in December 2010, and then cancelled, but then the dates don't quite add up. So clearly MC Global (the founding shareholder) have sometime, likely in 2012, reduced by 1,429,580 (around 10% of the total shareholdings), without an RNS ever having been issued - naughty! Maybe that explains the erratic share price performance in 2012. And if Mr Desmond is thinking of mounting a cheeky bid, (and at this share price it would be cheeky) maybe they're wishing they hadn't sold. Mr Desmond may also have been the intended recipient of any new shares to be issued, hence the opposition to disallowing pre emption rights. Following the AGM, MC Global, in the form of Smec, have now re established themselves as the largest share holder. I wonder what will transpire next? Xena
xenawarriorprincess: It could be, of course, that the recent decline in the share price was caused by news of Orient Equity wanting to offload their stake. The buy (sale) went through at 12.33, but the small upwards reaction in the share price didn't occur until 12.58. If there was an overhang, and as the stake was bought at a premium, maybe the long term uptrend will now resume.
snadgey: Seems to have stabilised now. Not sure what caused the spike other than buying on Bond settlement. Also holding for medium-long term. After the aborted attempt to leave AIM (very iffy considering they announced no reason for the share price collapse shortly before the announcement to leave AIM!) they seem to be getting things right - more announcements, dividend and Directors buying). Lets hope it lasts + investment for growth in other markets. Am always tempted to take some profits on these spikes but my timing is appauling!
lbo: So lets calarify! Directors bought yesterday the 2nd December but the company said on the 1st of December: "The Company notes the recent movement in its share price and wishes to confirm that it is not aware of any information relating to the Company that would lead to such a movement in the price of its ordinary shares" Then today it says! The Company was also notified yesterday that on 1 December 2010 Berenberg Balkan Baltikum sold 1,465,506 Ordinary Shares in the Company and therefore no longer has a notifiable interest in the Company. So did they did know there was a big seller and then they bought shares before telling the market that? Why was the sell not notified to the market on the 2nd of December before the Director buys? And we wonder why AIM has a bad name and why this share price has collapsed since IPO.
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