Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Angus & Ross LSE:AGU London Ordinary Share GB0009348862 ORD 1P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  +0.00p +0.00% 2.625p 0.00p 0.00p - - - 0 06:30:09
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Mining - - - - 6.44

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25/6/201009:35Angus & Ross- time for recovery1,646
05/5/200900:22AGU multibagger for 2007/2008 ?6,541
29/8/200816:49Willie banned me by Ruffian24
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tsmith2: an article worth reading. Our production costs from BAM are about $900/t. ZincOx Will Be In Production In The First Half Of Next Year, Just As A Further Uptick In The Zinc Price Looks Likely By Alastair Ford The zinc price has been showing a certain amount of relative strength recently, a trend that Andrew Woollett of Zincox isn't complaining about. In time, as he moves Zincox into production, he'd quite like to reduce the at times merciless correlation between his company's share price and the zinc price. Eventually, he hopes, profitability will become the key metric on which the market values Zincox, rather than simply pricing the shares in accordance with the price movements of zinc on the London Metal Exchange. But for now, with production from the Jabali mine in Yemen still more than six months away, and development work on the company's flagship recycling projects in the US waiting on secure financing, it's as a pure play on zinc that Zincox will be traded. Given that harsh reality, to look at a three year price chart for zinc metal is to appreciate that times have not been easy for Zincox's investors of late. The US$2.00 per pound price that zinc hit at the end of 2006 is now a distant dream, as is the 280p Zincox share price that went with it. Zincox shares subsequently traded even higher as the bull market rolled on, though zinc itself then began a long slide that only really came to an end a couple of months ago. But as the economic outlook darkened it wasn't long before Zincox's shares changed direction too. The prices of both are shadows of their former selves. Having hit a low of US$0.50 per pound, zinc's now trading at around US$0.65 per pound. In per tonne terms the price is between US$1,400 and US$1,500 depending on whether you use spot, three month or 15 month prices as your benchmark. And Zincox's shares are now at 65.5p, after trading down towards 20p in the dark days at the end of 2008. Still, looking at it from a glass-half-full perspective, the zinc price has risen by 30 per cent in the last few months, while Zincox's share price has nigh on tripled. Those recent developments give Andrew Woollett some grounds for optimism, although it's an optimism that's tempered by an awareness that there will be no quick fixes to the global economy, and that recovery isn't coming overnight. "We're off the bottom in terms of price", he says, "but I'm not holding my breath". The key thing, he continues, is to watch LME stocks. "It will be interesting to see which mines switch back on in China", he says, referring specifically to what he calls "mom and pop operations". If they've switched on at the current US$1,400 to US$1,500 levels that new supply ought to start showing through in the LME stock levels fairly soon, he reckons. But LME stocks are slightly down on the levels they were at a month ago. So the indications are that the Chinese "moms and pops" might be waiting for US$1,800 before venturing back into production. If that's the case then the recent strength ought to continue on at least a measured basis, and US$1,400 to US$1,500 might well become established as a new support level for the zinc price. And, says Andrew Woollett, "if that is the new base we're completely happy with that". That's because at an operational level the zinc recycling operations in Ohio ought to make money at as low as US$1,000 zinc, and the Jabali mine isn't far off that either. Costs run a little higher when you factor in capital payback of course, although exactly what that will amount to on the recycling side is still not clear, as it hasn't been the easiest of markets to lock down financing for zinc projects. Still, Andrew Woollett does emphasise that the company has "a number of irons in the fire" when it comes to raising the necessary funds. The projected cost is US$180 million, though Andrew does say that the company is working very hard to reduce that. It's also worth remembering that this is a company with a £64 million cash pile at its last results and an income stream from the Shiamerden mine in central Asia, so we are a long, long way from crunch time. A more likely scenario than crunch time is that as confidence gradually returns to a chastened market the choices open to Zincox will multiply. "I don't think anything spectacular's going to happen to the zinc price over the next six months", says Andrew, "but as soon as people start building things again – especially cars – then there may be some movement". It may be 12 months away, or it may be even further off. But by then Zincox will be in production from Jabali, and will be generating cash flow and earnings, and lots of other juicy new numbers for analysts to build valuation spreadsheets around. One imagines that the real re-rating will come when the recycling business hits its stride, but that's a long way off yet. In the meantime, Andrew Woollett is going to have to put up with a market that correlates his company's share price to the zinc price directly. But if the zinc price is on the up, that might not be quite so painful after all.
wow400: An article from a few months ago but still pertinent... Angus & Ross May Be In The Ninety Percent Club, But It's Suddenly Attracting The Attention Of The Bulls By Alastair Ford Why did Angus & Ross shares jump by nearly 300 per cent last week, when all the company did was announce an off-take agreement on the future production of lead and zinc concentrates from its flagship Black Angel mine in Greenland? As you might expect, the agreement, with Swiss-based commodities trader MRI Trading, links the price of the concentrates in question to the LME price, with various provisos allowing for treatment charges. Well and good. But at the current prices for lead and zinc such an agreement, though it may well be valid for the life of the mine, looks all but academic. Nicholas Hall, Angus & Ross's chief executive, fairly concedes that Black Angel needs a sustained zinc price of US$1,500 a tonne if it's ever to get off the ground. At the current US$1,200 per tonne price Black Angel looks dead in the water. But it turns out - to the surprise of some - that the market doesn't quite see it in those terms. For one thing Angus & Ross is a fully paid up member of what's become known as the 90 per cent club – those companies that have seen 90 per cent or more of their market values wiped out since the height of the recent boom. This club has a dispiritingly large number of members, the majority of whom are perfectly decent and respectable miners. Angus & Ross surely falls into this category. It may have flailed around a bit in its early years, accumulating properties here and there, some of which remain on the books as legacy assets just awaiting the right moment for a sale. But lately the focus has been firmly on Black Angel, an old zinc mine that Angus & Ross wants to start up again. A few months into 2006 the market thought this idea merited an Angus & Ross share price of around 27p. Now the company trades at around 2p. That's a lot of value being discounted out of an asset that's still the same over a relatively short period. But take an even shorter period, and the re-rating in the other direction is even more remarkable, at least in percentage terms. This time last week the shares were trading at a mere 0.5p. Then the company released its announcement about the MRI off-take agreement, and around 10 million shares changed hands during the next couple of days. That amounts, very roughly, to around five per cent of the shares on issue. Nicholas Hall concedes that the company had anticipated that the MRI agreement would be price sensitive, but not that it would be quite that price sensitive. Still, you can't second guess the markets, even if markets do try to second guess companies. One reason why Nicholas Hall was particularly cautious is that Angus & Ross is in the process of re-scheduling its US$12.5 million debt to investment fund Cyrus Capital Partners. This will no doubt involve the issue of some equity, as Cyrus's original warrants were set at 20p, but it wouldn't have looked too good if company and fund had nailed down an equity issuance only to witness a significant share price rise on the MRI news. If they had gone down that route and the price had risen by as much as it did there would have been howls of protest. Still, so much for hypotheticals. What the MRI news demonstrated to the market was firstly that Angus & Ross was still alive. And secondly, that it was kicking. Or to put it another way: with the off-take in place, the company can now re-negotiate its debt, and whether or not it's a sign that times are changing yet again, or whether it's just specific to Angus & Ross, Nicholas Hall isn't at all concerned about the re-scheduling. He's actually bound by a confidentiality agreement, so can't be specific, but the following gives a clear idea of where he thinks Angus & Ross is heading: "The support we're getting from Cyrus is tremendous. With Cyrus as part of our team, we will exploit successfully the Black Angel mine". Not much room for doubt there. As far as the project goes, there has been some re-jigging of plans, under the watchful gaze of technicians from Wardop and SGS. The idea now is to site a mill inside the old mine and to ship the concentrates down in a cable car. Contrary to what some malicious naysayers in the market might be whispering, Nicholas Hall says that the cable car is "fit for purpose", and that it is being built by one of the world's leading cable car companies. Some work on said cable car may get done this summer, depending on available finance. The other factor that helped move Angus & Ross shares so significantly was that in some quarters a certain bullish sentiment about the outlook for zinc is beginning to be discernible. This is evident amongst the brains and the brawn at Ocean Equities, where analyst Simon Gardner-Bond has had a favourable view on the metal for at least a couple of months now. Angus & Ross's own literature likes to cite research from Canadian investment company Octagon Capital, which argues that 2009 will be the year of the zinc miner. Nicholas Hall points out that if Octagon's projections for the zinc price turn out to be correct, then by the fourth quarter of this year, Black Angel will clearly be economic. It can operate, he emphasizes, at costs of around US$1,000 per tonne. But this is before financing costs are taken into consideration. To get the thing built will mean that the zinc price needs to be sustained at around US$1,500, as we said at the beginning of this article. The buyers of those 10 million shares clearly think this is a proposition that's not out of this world, as to Cyrus and MRI. Who are we to argue with such positivity at a time like this?
wow400: Interesting article in todays Tgraph: Making sense of dramatic movements in volatile stock markets By James Clunie Last Updated: 6:24am BST 30/07/2008 Why is it that the prices of some UK shares move 10pc or more on days on which no company specific news is released? If, like me, you've been watching the stock market recently, this question has probably crossed your mind more than once. Our collective understanding of how shares should get priced in a "perfect" world struggles to explain such moves. Fortunately, help is at hand. In recent years, stock market researchers have identified a series of activities that can move share prices temporarily and dramatically away from fair value, possibly explaining some of the violent moves we have seen recently. Two of the more interesting phenomena are known as "predatory trading" and "crowded exits". Consider, first, "predatory trading" - a practice explained in lurid, theoretical detail in some recent academic papers. A "predator" learns about the trading position of some other market participant and begins to trade against him. If the predator is strong enough, he can move the market price of the stock away from fair value. This imposes losses on the other party, and as the losses build, the victim struggles to hold on to his stock position. Eventually, the victim capitulates and closes out his position at a loss, and at around the same time, the predator closes out his own position at a profit. The share price eventually recovers to its fair value. Who might fall victim to predatory trading? Victims could include anyone with a position that they might be unable to maintain as losses mount. This could include an investor in financial distress, a hedge fund unable to meet a margin call, or an open-ended fund having to sell shares to meet client redemptions. A more topical example is an underwriter left with an unhedged stock position after a rights issue. Other traders would quickly surmise that the underwriter held unwanted stock. If the share price were driven lower, the underwriter's losses would mount. For risk control reasons, the underwriter might be unable to hold on to the losing position and might sell low. Predators would cover their own positions by buying cheap stock from the distressed seller. Now, I do not know for sure that predatory trading was taking place in some UK bank shares recently, but the pattern of share prices and trading volumes that we saw in HBOS shares last week certainly matches the theoretical model. Another phenomenon that could explain some of the recent, violent share price moves is the concept of "crowded exits". We know that the hedge fund industry has grown rapidly in recent years, and that there has been a noticeable increase in short-selling, the practice that involves selling shares that are not owned and buying them back at some later date, hopefully at an advantageous price. Now, there is plenty of evidence that heavily shorted stocks perform, on average, badly and this suggests a simple trading strategy for short-sellers: namely, to identify heavily shorted stocks and build further short positions in those stocks. However, such acts of "imitation" change the market dynamics and can lead to unexpected consequences. In this case, imitation can lead short positions to become large relative to the number of shares that are normally traded each day in stock...the short position is then said to become "crowded". If a catalyst of some sort were to prompt short-sellers to change their minds rapidly and simultaneously, we would have short-sellers rushing to buy, but no new rush of people seeking to sell. This is known as a crowded exit. The idea is akin to the audience in a crowded theatre rushing to a narrow exit door once the fire alarm sounds?...?only so many can leave the building in any given interval of time. The effect would be temporary upward pressure on the share price. A variety of catalysts for a crowded exit are possible: a broker could change a recommendation on a stock, an investor could place a large buy order, or a rumour could cause a rapid change in sentiment. Recent patterns of share price moves and short-seller activity in companies as diverse as Punch Taverns, Bellway and Trinity Mirror have been consistent with the notion of a crowded exit. In fact, the shares of these three companies rose by an average of 43pc in just four days last week. A study into crowded exits* using UK stock lending data from Index Explorers shows that crowded exits are associated with significant losses for short-sellers who are unable to cover their positions rapidly. Traditional, long-only investors would generally be unable to exploit this finding by buying into crowded exits, as by definition these are illiquid positions. If short-sellers continue to grow in importance on the London Stock Exchange, it is likely that we will experience many more crowded exits. For an active stock market trader, it is vital to be aware of the risk of crowded exits, and to avoid at all costs the risk of becoming a victim of predatory trading. At the same time, astute traders who feel that they understand the reasons for extreme volatility can trade to benefit from temporary mis-pricings. If they are right and the share prices are eventually restored to fair value, they can earn excess profits. For the rest of us, and in particular for long-term, fundamental investors, the advice is much simpler. Crowded exits and predatory trading are technical events that have nothing to do with the fundamentals of a company. Fundamental investors should simply ignore the extreme volatility and stick to estimating companies' cash flows. James Clunie is Investment Trustee at The CBF Church of England Funds *Caveat Venditor - Crowded Exits! University of Edinburgh Centre for Financial Markets Research Working Paper. Clunie, Moles and Gao, 2008.
paji: Well it certainly is having the desired effect. There is nothing more I would like to see more so in the world, than much higher and sustainable AGU share prices.
jimbox1: Those wondering about the weakness of the AGU share price need look no further than the LME. The prices of zinc and lead have been weak in the last week or so, and have fallen about 30% from the peak in May 2007. The prospect of recession in the US and slowing growth in China and India will most likely cause further weakness in the price of zinc and lead. How does the AGU valuation model look if the metal prices decline 50% from here?
vincentok: Gentlemen, I have made a thrilling discovery! For too long we've scrabbled in vain in the bowels of annual reports and obscure metal market predictions for clues as to where this share price is going only to be confounded again and again by its seemingly random rallies and reversals. When, all along, the answer was staring us in the face! I've crunched the numbers and the multivariate regression analysis is pointing to one unassailable truth - AGU's share price is inversely linked to the sentiment expressed on this board! Am I lying? Look back over the past three months alone and see for yourselves. But do not despair, for the power is now in our hands! Join with me in raising, er, I mean, sinking the AGU share price to all new lows! I call a 12.5p - 13p spread by Friday afternoon on foot of a crushingly disappointing BFS report.
paji: Surprised to see selling at these levels. The BFS is due into AGU hands tomorrow from WAI. The annoucement will follow within 0-4 days after IMO. This delay also means that the SAM announcement will be made soon after as it was expected in February. Sellers will look back as the new AGU share price evolution takes place and realise that they sold at the worst possible timing.
rolo7: once the cable car is installed the market may realise the potential of BAM to AGU, AGU share price all depends on this key point of access to the mine. I am a little concerned as to installing thr cable car in the very cold months of november 07-summer 08. Hope zinc price will stay at required levels
rolo7: agreed that agu share price has a long way to go, but what make me happy to hold is that zinc/lead seems to be appering everywhere around the far; South lakes glacier, ACK zone, this new Lakeshore zone (being drilled) 1.2km south on SLG, and area north of the two lakes between glaicier in the east and BAM in west, not to mention the new islands licences. Seems like the ice has melted and there the zinc and lead on the surface at times. Just hope that zinc says above $3000.
ruffian2: tsmith2 - despite the serious momentum at AGU the only momentum in the AGU share price is down!
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