Maxcyte Share Discussion Threads

[mysteronz] 05/10/2023 06:12

I think they are unwinding inventory and suffering from a lack of capital for drugs that arent well into development.

Nothing about how they see the tech.

Agree with AdamB this isnt about selling the ‘razor/razorblades’ at this point it is about regulatory approval for the drugs close to (hopeful) approval.

One for the bottom drawer for me, frustrating share price but the story here has not changed, just the macro.

[adamb1978] 05/10/2023 06:11

I'm not sure that can be said Trident.DD said on the call last night that there was a meeting at the end of the month when Vertex would get the yes or no from the FDA.I can understand customers holding back til then, particularly when some are strapped for cashGood thing is that have around 8 years at current burn rates so it's really a binary question of whether their tech works or not, rather than solvency

[trident5] 04/10/2023 22:06

I was holding on th belief that it's an exciting growth opportunity, seems M's customers don't think the same.

[adamb1978] 04/10/2023 20:27

Annoying update, though I guess if anyone is holding this on the basis of 1 or 2 quarters figures, then they're missing the point. Good that they're managing cash.

Big event is in a couple months' time rather than today

[edwardt] 04/10/2023 20:05

Last request - anyone got access to decent sell side on the stock?

[edwardt] 04/10/2023 20:03

Exciting - let's hope the price is not so high that nobody can afford it!

[adamb1978] 28/9/2023 20:30

There would be a chunky milestone payment and presumably Crispr would starting buying more consumables again too. Then there would be royalties based on sales - I don't have my notes in front of me but think they've guided to low to mid single digit More importantly though, it'll show that their process works which will give more confidence about their other customers who are lined up to go through the same approval process from next year onwardsPlus it would have a huge change on sentiment

[edwardt] 28/9/2023 17:15

Remind me what they get is crispy gets approval? Is it simply x percentage royalties on sales...

[adamb1978] 27/9/2023 17:32

Whether luck or judgement, MXCT timed their Nasdaq listing to perfection. Without that, they'd have gone under. However they now have a decade of cash runway.

If the Cripsr thing gets approval at the end of Nov, this share price should rocket

[davemac3] 27/9/2023 16:25

looks like it was pumped up for Nasdaq a couple of years ago, should have sold then.

[adamb1978] 27/9/2023 12:39

Cash isn’t remotely an issue here. As the other poster said, they have boat loads of the stuff!

Question is whether their lead customer gets approval back from the regulators in a couple months time

The share price at the moment is effectively assuming that gets rejected. You can understand the price drifting down over recent months as such a big proportion of the newsflow for MXCT this year is the end-nov approval.

Therefore there’s big upside of the green light comes. If it doesn’t, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Board looks for a buyer and a huge MedTech type company sweeps them up

[74tom] 27/9/2023 11:31

From the cash flow statement...

Net cash used in operating activities in H1 was $14.4m, so £6m a Q to be precise.

$6.7m of the headline H1 loss is related to stock based compensation.

Their cash pile will last them in the 2030's

[2theduke] 26/9/2023 13:28

Hi Tom - where did you get the £5m per quarter cash burn ? I thought it was way higher than that ?

[adamb1978] 23/9/2023 12:01

74tom

Difficult with an offer would be valuation. Is that a price which (i) the Directors would recommend and (ii) someone would offer

As you say, the business is almost free (net of cash) so the premium would need to be huge, and could an acquiror get that through their board?

MXCT share price is really in a holding pattern until the regulatory approval is back on Crispr...not long to go now though!

Adam

[sebass] 23/9/2023 07:48

Don’t forget potential 100 million tax losses than can be offset

[74tom] 23/9/2023 07:04

Looking interesting here from a valuation standpoint given the upcoming catalysts.

At the start of Covid MXCT raised capital at £1.31, post that raise they had ~£35m cash & 76.5m shares in issue, giving a post raise cap of £100m & EV of £65m / $80m.

At last nights $3.12 close on NASDAQ the market cap was down to $336m with cash likely to be ~$210m ($5m quarterly burn net of interest income). So EV of $126m.

Therefore, if EV declines by another $46m, the company is as fundamentally cheap as at the start of Covid, but with 4x as much cash. Share price wise that equates to around $2.80 / £2.30.

Giving the world class IP & industry standing, surely there is a real risk of a takeover attempt?

[adamb1978] 10/8/2023 08:43

The opex comment was in response to a question, rather than an outright planned statement. As I said above, the burn rate is being maintained despite the lower revenues.

Based on my figures, they'll still have >$100m cash by the time they hit profitability so the investment case here doesnt hinge on opex in the slightest - it solely depends on whether their technology works and gets adopted or not. From that perspective, main date this year is December when FDA approval for Vertex's thing is due.

[trident5] 10/8/2023 07:48

There also seems to have been a credit to the P&L of $3.6m for "amortisation of discounts on short term investments".

If so the 1H operating loss, excluding that, would be $30m up from $13m last year.

I wasn't on the call but if they're saying they're managing opex more closely it's a bit alarming, suggesting that they weren't before and it's now ballooning.

[adamb1978] 10/8/2023 07:37

Yes, but inevitable whilst revenues are low.

They're fully cashed up for years to come so quarterly opex is largely irrelevant here. Not sure whether you joined the call last night but even if you are focussed on opex, they said they're still expecting the same burn rate this year.

The value driver here is commercialisation of therapies from customers. If you look at the new slide in their investor deck, there's 8 of them planned for launch from 2025-7, so FDA approval 2024-26...so lots of consumables and milestone payments in that period, and then royalties following

[trident5] 10/8/2023 07:12

And nearly 40% of revenue on stock based compensation!

[trident5] 09/8/2023 21:38

Opex in H1 up from $32m to $42m.

And for every dollar of revenue there's 72c spent on sales and marketing costs. Last year it was only 41c for every dollar of revenue. Awesome; but not in a good way.

[adamb1978] 09/8/2023 21:07

Not great Q2 results, though given the Q1 results and commentary around them, these figures were never going to be great. Revenue down slightly year on year, though slightly up quarter on quarter. Guidance of flat yoy for 2023 is to be expected in that context, and good that they've maintained the $6m revenue for SPL payments.

Still have bucket loads of cash but nice to hear that they're managing opex more closely so that even if revenue is lower than planned, they still hit the £400m end of year cash balance.

There's a new slide in the investor presentation on their website (slide 15 I think) which shows timings for getting revenues from customer's therapies, and split into different waves. Helpful for thinking about how the royalties might increase.

Main event this year remains the Vertex approval, which is hopefully coming in December...

[nchanning] 08/8/2023 12:27

Maxcyte is the leader in flow electroporation and flow electroporation is the leading technique but neither of these things are bound to last forever . Perhaps if Mr Doerfler owned a reasonable equity stake he'd be trying to run the business at breakeven while picking up licenses and royalties . He's quite happy incinerating a monster cash pile at an ever increasing pace